Why Nick Foles Figures to Be Bears Opening Day Starter

After getting all the tough breaks, Nick Foles looks like the odds-on favorite to begin next season as the Bears starter.

When last Nick Foles made an appearance in a game, it was against the Jacksonville Jaguars simply to kill clock.

He was carted off the field with a hip and glute injury against Minnesota the time before that. The injury seemed a distant and unwanted memory for the Bears by the time they finished a three-game winning streak to get into the playoffs through the backdoor, with Mitchell Trubisky leading the way. 

When the season ended and odds makers came out with futures lines on who would start for teams at quarterback the next season, the odds-on favorite for the 2021 Bears opener was none other than Foles at 2 to 1 over Trubisky (2 1/2-1). 

Of course there was more to these odds than Trubisky being out of a contract after the 2020 season, but that did have a good deal to do with it.

Foles figures to start because of several other factors.

1. The Talent

Sure Foles had only an 80.8 passer rating and completed only 64.7% of his throws in 2020, while Trubisky completed 67% and established a passer rating of 93.5.

But Foles had to be one of the league's most unlucky players in 2020. Before Trubisky went against the league's cream puffs on defense, Foles faced some of the best defenses week-in and week-out.

The Colts became the first team to beat the Bears and were first against the pass and first overall when they played that Week 4 game after Trubisky's benching. The Rams were fourth overall defensively and fourth against the pass when they faced the Bears. The Buccaneers were fourth overall when they played the Bears, the Saints seventh, and even the Panthers were respectable on defense at the time, ranking 14th then.

Just when Foles was going to get to play against some of the weaker defenses—the Titans were 25th and 22nd against the run while the Vikings were 29th overall and 20th against the run—the Bears offensive line collapsed because of injuries and COVID-19. They couldn't block for the pass or run. Prior to that, they just couldn't block for the run.

Foles got sacked 12 times in a three-game stretch and then went out with the injury.

Given a fighting chance, backed by a running attack and fully functioning offensive line, it's possible Foles fares much better. He definitely did against Tampa Bay and didn't even have the backing of a real ground game then.

He did benefit from one of the better Bears performances in the running game against New Orleans, at a modest 96 yards, and the Bears took the Saints to overtime. In the playoffs they weren't quite up to that with Trubisky and a revamped line playing an offense supposedly more conducive to running.

The Prep

As long as he's not cut, or the league doesn't cancel OTAs and minicamps again, Foles should have the benefit of a full offseason within the Bears offense. He needed this badly last year but the pandemic wiped it out.

So he came into camp cold and lost the starting job after only about 15 practices, only some which came with first-team snaps. There were no preseason games. Then, by the time they turned to him three weeks into the regular season, he'd only operated the scout team for three weeks.

Foles could look a great deal more like the quarterback who took the Eagles to the Super Bowl with an offseason of prep and last season's experience within the offense. Remember, when he won the Lombardi Trophy and MVP he first had an offseason in the Eagles system as well as preseason games.

The Cash

Foles counts only $6.67 million toward the salary cap, in 2021, but his $4 million in salary is guaranteed. So it's coming off their cap space even if they cut him.

His cap hit will only be the 28th highest among quarterbacks next year at this point, so he's virtually being paid like a backup. 

Browns backup Case Keenum even has a higher cap figure for 2021 than Foles. So for a cap-strapped team like the Bears, the dollars make sense to keep Foles.

Bottom Line

There are too many reasons not only to expect Foles to be on the team, but to start.

One factor it all could hinge on is whether the Bears can actually piece together a running game capable of operating out of the shotgun using inside zone blocking. They couldn't do it in 2020 and finally did run using bootleg action and the outside zone blocking scheme. Foles isn't really mobile enough to operate that way.

A rookie quarterback wouldn't start on opening day.

And the chances for the Bears acquiring either Matthew Stafford or Deshaun Watson are so remote they aren't worth considering.

Foles would win out by process of elimination.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven