Paying David Montgomery No Simple Matter

Analysis: The Bears are looking at the possibility of extending David Montgomery in an era when teams more and more pay less and expect less of running backs.

The Bears face a real decision on running back David Montgomery going forward.

They'll have him under contract this season and then not in 2023 unless they get him a contract extension for his fifth season. 

To many Bears fans this sounds like a no-brainer. Even team board chairman George McCaskey remarked at the season-ending press conference about how hard Montgomery plays.

Pay the man, right? It's not so simple. It almost becomes a matter of philosophy going forward as it does dollars and cents.

According to Spotrac.com, Montgomery's market value is $12.9 million per year. This could be wishful thinking for or by Montgomery.

If any team in the NFL should value backs it's the Bears, whose very tradition is founded on Walter Payton, Gale Sayers, Matt Forte running the ball and playing defense.

The issue facing the Bears is whether a deal of that sort is even wise considering the league marketplace for running backs. The bottom fell out of the running back market years ago, and it's like a bottomless pit right now.

Decline of the Great NFL Running Back

Three years ago the San Francisco 49ers running game was the envy of the NFL. They smashed Green Bay in the NFC championship game using Raheem Mostert, a running back who had been on the Bears practice squad at one time. They also had Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida and ran them at teams in an attack that seemed a bit like a modern Larry Czonka, Jim Kiick and Mercury Morris.

Since that season ended, two seasons passed and Mostert, Coleman and Breida are all free agents heading into 2022. Coleman could be looking for his third team in three years, Breida for his fourth team in four years and Mostert has played only in 10 games since he trampled all over the Packers for four touchdowns and 220 yards in the NFC championship game that season. Coleman had a salary of $1.1 million last year, Mostert $2.9 million and Breida $1.055 million

The Rams just won the Super Bowl and did it partly because they acquired Sony Michel from New England by trade for fourth- and sixth-round draft picks after an injury to second-year back Cam Akers. They were able to squeeze 845 rushing yards from Michel and 688 from Darrell Henderson and now move forward with rings. Michel is an unrestricted free agent and his market value is just $5 million after he made $2.45 million last year.

Leonard Fournette is another example. He made $3.25 million last year and after a bounce-back season when he gained 812 yards, Fournette's estimated market value by Spotrac is $6.1 million a year.

It's unfortunate but today's running back is tomorrow's newspaper on the bottom of a bird cage. Injuries, the growth of the passing game and success by teams who build up their offensive line while using multiple backs instead of a load back all apply downward pressure on running back salaries.

This isn't to say there are no highly paid backs. Last season Christian McCaffrey had an average annual salary of $16 million, while Ezekiel Elliott and Alvin Kamara were at $15 million.

Do you think the Panthers don't wish they had that contract back after McCaffrey gained 667 total rushing yards in the last two seasons?

Kamara has never gained 1,000 yards in a season and last year saw his reception total dip to 47 from 83. Elliott's production fell off to 4.2 yards a carry last year and he has now made a whopping 1,650 rushing attempts in a six-year career, giving rise to fears he has been overworked.

This problem with paying backs big contracts besides the danger of injury is you're usually paying for past production. A shorter career span, partly due to the risk of injuries, means a second contract at an age just before backs start to become less productive.

The Bears themselves saw what can happen when you invest money in a back's future based on the past. It wasn't huge money, but an average of $5.75 million a year for Tarik Cohen is expensive considering how someone as vital to a team's success like Fournette was last year has only a market value of $6.1 million.

Now the Bears have almost nothing to show from Cohen for the last two seasons and his future in Chicago even appears questionable.

So do the Bears rush right in and get that market value over a long term to Montgomery?

The $12.9 million would be more per year on average than Dalvin Cook ($12 million), Derrick Henry ($12.5 million), Nick Chubb ($12.2 million), Aaron Jones ($12 million) and Joe Mixon ($12 million) make, according to Spotrac.

A Possible Way to Pay It Forward

The effort is always there from Montgomery, although the Bears even saw the possible dangers of injury with a back last year. Montgomery averaged 3.46 yards a rush over the last nine games following a knee sprain but 4.48 a rush in four games before the injury.

The cheaper back-by-committee behind a strong offensive line is the way many teams choose to go now, putting the emphasis instead on building up passing game personnel as much as possible while going low budget on backs.

There is an alternative, and that is one the Bears are partially set up to pursue. This would be pay the lead back and pinpoint young alternatives at cheap pay behind him.

They already have Khalil Herbert, the sixth-rounder who looked impressive as a rookie with 433 yards on 103 carries and 14 catches for 96 yards. If they pay Montgomery and find one or two more capable of being like Herbert, the Bears can build a line of succession into their backfield and keep down costs while also paying the lead back until they deem his time has come and gone.

It's all rather distasteful to talk about running backs in this manner considering what the position has meant to this franchise and the sport overall, but such is life in the NFL these days.

They wanted a passing league with a salary cap and they got it. This has come at the price of making running backs into second-class NFL citizens.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven