Bear Digest

Playoff Targets Shane Waldron's Bears Offense Must Hit

Analysis: Style needs to be much different than last year and production likewise for Shane Waldron's Chicago Bears offense to transform into what a contender needs to have.

Gene Chamberlain

The Bears offense will looke quite different in personnel at many positions and in style but it really needs to look different in production numbers.
The Bears offense will looke quite different in personnel at many positions and in style but it really needs to look different in production numbers. / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
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Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron looks at his assembled talent and sees the potential for an explosive attack.

How could he think otherwise with Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen added to DJ Moore at wide receiver? When they also have Gerald Everett and Cole Kmet at tight end, it only enhances chances to find open targets even if QB Caleb Williams has a few rocky practices now trying to figure it all out.

"I think for us on offense, we want to be able to be multiple on offense," Waldron said. "And so with the addition of the wide receivers, having three receivers, two great established vets, we've got other young guys that are up and coming on the roster as well (Tyler Scott, Velus Jones Jr.).

"It just allows us to continue to be multiple, allows us to on a week-by-week basis see what might be a matchup advantage or something that we can look to lean heavier towards."

What it will all need to look like in the end is what most Bears fans want to know. The run-heavy approach of the last few years is gone with Justin Fields and Luke Getsy.

Unless you're a run-heavy team with a conventional running game like the 49ers, or a team with a mobile QB who runs but is also a deadly accurate passer like Lamar Jackson, it doesn't mean success to be one of the best teams at running. Jackson's completion percentages and yards/attempt make him the quarterback he is, and not his running.

Good riddance to this style of offense.

The Bears did what they needed to do on offense because they must be a serious passing team if they're going to have a chance to win a Super Bowl. Gimmicky offenses like the one the Saints run with Taysom Hill or even what the Ravens have with a great running quarterback have not produced a Super Bowl winner.

The Bears ran the ball the last two years better than almost anyone and their passing game in the last two years kept them from being a playoff team. In one of those years, their defense was so bad it wouldn't have mattered, anyway, but they were no better on offense.

You don't make the playoffs with 2,500-yard passers.

Balance is where it's at and Waldron's offenses have been balanced almost to a fault.

Here's what Waldron's offense must become to be a viable NFL playoff team.

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1. Passing Yards

It's a scoring league, as they say, even though scoring overall in the NFL has declined four of the past five years.

Pass to score and run to win might be a good formula for winning, but passing to score is the first part of it. It's why the Bears needed those three receivers for Williams.

None of the bottom seven teams in the league in passing yards per game made the playoffs last year, including the Bears at 27th with 182.1 passing yards a game even with DJ Moore and Cole Kmet available as receivers.

The only team to make the playoffs last year and average less than 211.2 yards per game in passing was Pittsburgh at 187.8. The Steelers barely got in and were quickly out. In the previous year, the only team in bottom six in passing to make it was Baltimore as a 10-7 wild card.

In these days, the ticket to oblivion is to be a bad passing team like the Bears have been. Eight of the top 10 teams in passing yards made the playoffs last year.

2. Chunk Yardage

Check-down Charlies need not apply.

The ball needs to get downfield in the passing game, or the offense needs to spring for better yardage on short passes that break with yards after the catch. The Bears have been miserable at YAC for years. They haven't been higher than 21st at it since they won the division in 2018.

Yards per pass attempt also remains a huge statistic for successful NFL teams even in an era when analytics tries to downplay it by focusing elsewhere. It is a real key. Nine of the top 10 teams in yards per pass attempt last year made the playoffs.

How was Waldron with this in Seattle? They weren't in the top 10 at Seattle, but they were 11th and beat out four playoff teams last year including the Super Bowl champs.

3. Scoring When and Where

Points, points, points. They must score more. The 17-13 games and the 17-9 games like their season finale have to go. If their opponents want to score 10 or 13, thats fine.

Can Waldron's offense score enough? There were mixed reviews from Seattle fans about him when he left. They should have been pointing the finger at Pete Carroll and not the offensive coordinator.

A key statistic for playoff teams is points per play. Seattle actually had better scoring per play than four playoff teams last year, including Kansas City.

The Seahawks were 11th in points per play last year and they were ninth in 2022 and 10th in 2021, all seasons with Waldron as coordinator. Those are solid efforts throughout his three years as coordinator.

They also need to score early, be able to score late and more than anything else be able to score touchdowns within the red zone. Of the top 10 teams in red zone touchdowns, only the Eagles failed to make the playoffs.

Only two teams who were in the bottom half of the league in first-quarter scoring made the playoffs, Pittsburgh and Houston. The Texans were just below the halfway line at 19th.

It's important to be able to score late, but the Chiefs were last in the NFL in fourth-quarter scoring and won the Super Bowl. Was it because they were ahead and didn't need to score then? This had a good deal to do with it, especially in several blowout wins like one against an especially inept team from Chicago.

If it wasn't important to score late, however, the bottom 10 in fourth-quarter scoring would be littered with winning playoff teams and it isn't. Most games get decided late so you need to score late.

4. Run When Necessary

Teams that run the ball don't necessarily emerge with the Lombardi Trophy or even playoff berths. Running it enough to keep defenses honest while their passing attack does the damage is critical.

Kansas City has never been higher than 13th in rushing since Patrick Mahomes became quarterback but the Chiefs have won three of the last five Super Bowls.

Last year's Waldron team had troubles on the offensive line. They were 28th in rushing and it still didn't stop them from scoring, but they had to move the ball through the air and did.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

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Gene Chamberlain

GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.