Bear Digest

Potential Bears Problems Resulting from Offseason Changes

Analysis: Offseason changes can bring about desired results but also can cause other potential problems and the Bears could find themselves scrambling to address new headaches in 2024.

Gene Chamberlain

The Bears cannot afford to be beaten off the line of scrimmage for easy sacks now with a less mobile quarterback after trading Justin Fields.
The Bears cannot afford to be beaten off the line of scrimmage for easy sacks now with a less mobile quarterback after trading Justin Fields. / Wm. Glasheen/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin
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For every action there is a reaction.

Nowhere is this more apparent in team sports than in the NFL during the offseason.

The Bears spent all but a reported $21 million of their allotted salary cap space and used their five draft picks to strengthen weak areas or cover complete holes in their roster.

They completely changed their offense by going to coordinator Shane Waldron, and dealt away quarterback Justin Fields to make room for their new starter Caleb Williams. The idea is to become more explosive on offense and it's difficult to see how this wouldn't happen with the caliber of receivers they brought to Halas Hall at wide receiver, tight end and even running back.

When they change one way, however, the result is not always entirely the intended one.

Here are possible problems the Bears have created for themselves in 2024 with their actions in the offseason.

The Bears are morphing without changing head coaches and they need to be ready to play a different game now.

1. Decline of the Running Game

If you’re going to a more of a passing attack, the second-ranked running attack will likely be weakened. This goes without saying.

However, in this case the effect could be much more dramatic because they’ve both removed the source of 2,020 rushing yards over the last three seasons but also the threat who kept defenses honest.

It’s much easier to block when the defenders are trying to figure out who the ball carrier will be, and the threat of a running quarterback dropped dramatically with Williams taking over for Fields. He can run but it’s extremely unlikely he’ll be pulling it down on RPOs and taking off much because of the value of his arm.

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They also ran for yardage repeatedly on planned QB runs. On those plays, they had an extra blocker with the back not used to carry the ball. They won't have this advantage now.

Bears linemen will need to become better blockers in a more conventional running game.

It’s fun and fashionable to join the rest of the football world and become a passing team but the run doesn’t simply vanish from the attack and the Bears now need to learn to block when defenses aren’t on their heels watching to see if it’s the back taking the ball and going or the quarterback has pulled it back and could break a 55-yard run.

2. Pocket Integrity

Pass blocking breakdowns can’t occur from the snap. Blockers no longer can afford to be beaten out of their stances because the quarterback has extreme quickness and can elude or even punish the defense for leaving a lane open the scrambling quarterback can exploit.

The Bears allowed 50 sacks or more for three straight seasons and some occurred because of the quarterback but sometimes Fields avoided sacks early on plays to scramble or run and pass.

In addition to being a better conventional run-blocking team, the Bears offensive line and backfield blockers must improve at holding their ground and keeping away pass rushers.

More pressure on the offensive line all around is the result of change.

3. Exposing their Defense More

Personnel differences could matter but three years of offensive plays and results in Seattle proved fairly definitive. Waldron’s offense is going to make the Bears more of a high-risk, high-reward attack.

The defense is going to need to come back onto the field more.

In three years, the best Waldron’s Seahawks offenses ranked at possession the football was next to last in the NFL (2022).

4. Decline of the Run Defense

The Bears stopped the run better than any NFL team last year, only one season removed from ranking 30th against the run.

One key personnel change leaves a huge question mark over their ability to be as productive.

Justin Jones’ 22 tackles for loss the last two seasons will be missed. They have two young defensive tackles replacing him in Gervon Dexter and Zacch Pickens, yet neither one showed much ability to play against the run last year. Dexter had the most snaps and ranked 118th out of 130 interior defensive linemen against the run according to Pro Football Focus.

The 3-technique position played by Jones is called the most critical to this defensive scheme because of the disruption it can cause in the running game, leading to a four-man rush in obvious passing situations. If they don’t stuff the running game, they can leave themselves exposed to so much more on defense.

5. Living with Turnovers

Last year 15 quarterbacks threw more interceptions than Fields did. The previous year, only nine did.

Fields did get better at avoiding interceptions in his third season but rookies are going to throw them, especially early in their first season until they have a better idea about the closing speed of defensive backs and the way coordinators trap them into making dumb throws.

It goes beyond possible interceptions. According to official NCAA statistics, Williams fumbled 17 times in college. Quarterbacks are going to fumble more when they aren't protected and USC had one of the worst pass-blocking offensive lines in the country last year. They weren't a great deal better in 2022. But a fumbling quarterback isn't new to the Bears, as Fields fumbled 38 times in the last three seasons.

What is different is D'Andre Swift has fumbled three times in a season twice in his career and nine times overall. The Bears haven't had a running back fumble more than twice in the last four seasons and their high for two of the last four seasons was one fumble by a running back.

6. Edge Rush Need

This one has been beaten to death all offseason by analysts because it is so obvious.

The Bears lost edge rushers Yannick Ngakoue and his four sacks, and also Rasheem Green, who had two sacks.

They only had 30 sacks and were next to last in the league in 2023, so they obviously needed to improve this figure. Montez Sweat improved it immediately last year, but now they lost two players and six sacks from a poor pass rushing group.

Is rookie fifth-round edge Austin Booker making up for this loss? Odds are not good for this. There were only five players drafted last season who reached six sacks as rookies and only three the previous year.

This doesn't mean Booker won't be a force eventually. Numerous players on the edge get better by Year 2. Boye Mafe, Travon Walker, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Jermaine Johnson all were 2022 draft picks who stepped up their sack totals in Year 2. But for the first year, it's not common to find rookie fifth-round picks putting up big sack numbers, so the Bears most likely have weakened an already weak area for this season.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.