Bear Digest

Revising Bears Fantasy Football Projections for 2024 Season

Fantasy Analysis: Earlier forecasted numbers are tweaked for Chicago Bears On SI as a reult of the preseason and training camp performances and a different offensive system.

Gene Chamberlain

DJ Moore hauls in a first-down catch against the Detroit Lions in last year's Bears win at Soldier Field. More balance in the offense could mean less output from Moore for fantasy football this year.
DJ Moore hauls in a first-down catch against the Detroit Lions in last year's Bears win at Soldier Field. More balance in the offense could mean less output from Moore for fantasy football this year. / Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

There are always revisions when it comes to NFL statistical projections, especially when initial forecasts for NFL production come in June after OTAs.

A full training camp and preseason have passed. More is known about the Shane Waldron/Bears offense and how it operates, and the key word here is balance.

The game-planning aspect remains a mystery but use of players became apparent.

The real unknown is how quickly Caleb Williams adjusts to facing NFL defenses and to running the Bears offense.

It's especially important both to the Bears but also to fantasy football owners.

Here is the updated Chicago Bears On SI projection for fantasy purposes.

Caleb Williams' Projection

How Williams performs affects his status for fantasy owners, as well as the receivers, the running backs and tight ends.

Williams' status has actually dropped somewhat in the eyes of many fantasy analysts, apparently based on his performance in preseason but also the way others have played and how the offense looks around him.

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For instance, SI.com fantasy expert Michael Fabiano had Williams No. 8 among all NFL QBs for fantasy ball in June. Now he is No. 14.

Chicago Bears On SI has revised his projection downward, as well, based on fewer completions, more big gains but a lower completion percentage than earlier anticipated.

Original numbers were 361 of 560 for 3,690 yards (64.4% completions) with 24 TDs and nine interceptions and a 90.86 passer rating, as well as 63 rushes for 377 yards and five TDs.

The new Caleb Williams numbers: 345 completions, 544 attempts, 3,599 yards (63.4% completions, 6.6 yards per attempt), 24 TDs, 11 interceptions, 88.2 passer rating. Rushing: 51 rushes, 259 yards, 5.1 yards per carry, 4 rushing TDs.

Waldron wants to minimize risk for Williams in his first year, but that will be easier said than done considering how much the rookie wants to venture outside the pocket. The learning on both his and Waldron's part will be on-going throughout the season.

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen is not out of shape and slow as social media depicted him. However, he currently has a foot issue of some sort and based on 14 missed games over the last four years and being 32 years old, the fantasy value he has should decline drastically. He is coming off a career season with a different team. It's going to be different with other targets available in a new offense with a rookie QB. Allen's earlier projection of 80 receptions and 984 yards in 111 targets (12.3 yards per catch) with six TDs and a 72% catch rate look bloated for his use in this more balanced offense. He is currently rated 29th best fantasy wide receiver by SI's Fabiano, one ahead of Zay Flowers and one behind Christian Kirk.

Allen's new Chicago Bears ON SI projection is 71 receptions in 98 targets, 880 yards and four touchdowns. Big yardage is not his forte, now, anyway. This will come from DJ Moore in the offense. Making the receptions is key for him.

Moore's yardage and catches should decrease, as well, but still hold up well considering how there could be too many targets to try and cover. Moore is not going to face the double coverage and special attention he had last year or defenses could pay.

The Bears will have more yards after the catch in this more balanced offense and Moore will be the big beneficiary. His projection of 80 catches, 1,225 yards in 129 targets reflects his big play potential in the offense. His TD total should decline, though, to five.

The connection with Odunze as two rookies coming in together figures to grow throughout the season and will ultimately take away targets from both Moore and Allen, but first the veterans should prevail if healthy. 

Fabiano has Odunze 44th among wide receivers, one behind Green Bay's Christian Watson and two behind Jacksonville rookie Brian Thomas Jr.

Earlier projections for Odunze look spot on. It's just going to happen different than with other receivers. He'll come on strong as the season moves along.

A 700-yard season on 53 receptions in 82 targets is better than solid for a rookie but with six TD catches Odunze will give rise to hopes he can lead the receiver corps in the future.

Running Back

D'Andre Swift brings back the all-around threat to the Bears running back position not seen since David Montgomery left, at least not on a breakaway level. Roschon Johnson has the all-purpose designation but lacks breakaway speed. When Waldron was Seattle offensive coordinator, the shared running duties didn't take on a 50-50 type of look. Backup backs got about 30% to 40% of carries behind Kenneth Walker so the fantasy player is gaining nothing from having Khalil Herbert or Roschon Johnson except as a pick-up player later if there is an injury to Swift.

Original projections for 760 rushing yards from Swift look low now considering how explosive he looked in his carries or receptions in OTAs, training camp and preseason. Here's a new line on Swift: 189 rushes, 888 yards, 6 TDs rushing, 4.7 yards per rush; 65 targets, 49 receptions, 2 TDs.

SI's Fabiano ranks him 18th among running backs but it's safe to assume his production exceeds this ranking because of the balance Waldron seeks in his offense. The backs will get used receiving and rushing even with three wide receivers like the Bears have on the roster.

Tight End

No position for the Bears took a worse hit for fantasy football than this one because of the changes on offense.

Fabiano classifies Kmet as one of the main tight ends to avoid as a result. He's ranked 14th among tight ends.

"Kmet was a top-10 fantasy tight end last season, but everything about the Bears offense has changed," Kmet wrote.

The offensive emphasis on balance should keep Kmet involved but not close to his 70 catches of last year or even in the 60s. If it does, something went wrong with the wide receivers or running game.

Even Kmet's On SI projection of 48 receptions in 64 targets for 532 yards and five TDs looks high now. The new line: 44 receptions, 58 targets, four TDs, 558 yards and 12.7-yard average. Kmet should get more of a catch-and-run chance now but fewer targets.

Gerald Everett is not a tight end ranked among the top 32 by Fabiano and he'll still get his share of catches. It might be at the lowest level since his rookie year, with a projection of 36 catches, 53 targets, 412 yards, one TD.

Also

Both kicker Cairo Santos and the Bears defense rate better choices than many fantasy analysts project.

Santos will have more kicking opportunities this year with an offense more capable of getting the ball in scoring position.

The defense received an unrealistic and poor 19th ranking from Fabiano despite leading the NFL in interceptions and producing 20 sacks in last season's second half. This defense has been building up to this season the way the 2018 Bears defense was building up for three years first. It could be one of the top six or seven based on takeaways alone.

Twitter: BearsOnSI

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.