The Sharper Way to Figure Out Severity of Bears' Schedule?

What an alternative way of determining strength of schedule shows for the Bears' slate of opponents in 2024.

Khalil Herbert tries to elude the grasp of Detroit's Derrick Barnes last season. / David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

Normally it'e easier to wait until the actual schedule comes out to judge its severity.

Warren Sharp and SharpFootball have false-started a bit but no one minds, and what they've found through their methods is the slate of opponents the Bears face is every bit as easy as anyone imageined.

Sharp uses a different method than the league every year to determine severity of schedule.

The NFL records say the Bears are facing the third-easiest schedule. Opponents had a 135-154 record last year or a .467 winning percentage. This is tied for 29th toughest with Carolina. Since they're tied, it's also the 30th toughest.

The only teams with easier schedules are the Saints (.453) and Falcons.

Sharp's method uses the implied win totals for each team from betting lines (over/under). When all of this is calculated in, the Bears are playing?

You guessed it, the same 30th toughest schedule, or the third easiest. Whichever way you look at it they face a soft schedule.

Using this method, only the Falcons and Chargers have easier schedules than the Bears.

Of course, this doesn't mean much because everything can change when the season begins, if there are injuries or players underperform out outperform expectations.

In 2022 Sharp calculated the Bears had the fourth-easiest schedule, and this excited Bears fans because it figured to be rough year with a roster totally gutted and rebuilt.

It proved a less sharp way of measuring schedule severity that year because at the end of the season the Bears had played the toughest NFL schedule by far, based on opponents' winning percentages.

NEW: NFL strength of schedule for 2024!

5 easiest schedules:

1️⃣ Falcons
2️⃣ Chargers
3️⃣ Bears
4️⃣ Jets
5️⃣ Saints

5 hardest schedules:

2️⃣8️⃣ Vikings
2️⃣9️⃣ Ravens
3️⃣0️⃣ Browns
3️⃣1️⃣ Patriots
3️⃣2️⃣ Steelers

1-32 with insight & analysis:https://t.co/YfD77PUAVS

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) April 15, 2024

The bottom line is it's better to wait until the actual schedule comes out. Teams might have rough stretches early or late and that impacts records the way injuries do. Their outlook could also be impacted by the draft, especially this year with Caleb Williams expected to come on board.

Their over/under win totals could fluctuate based on the new players coming to the roster.

The real schedules come out sometime in May, right after the draft.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven