Task Looks Too Tall for a Bears Move Up in Draft 'Tanking' Order

2025 NFL Draft Order: Bears need 3-11 teams to win at least twice so they can move up in draft order, but schedules suggest it's unlikely many will cooperate.

The Bears wound up with two picks in the top nine last year but to move up past ninth in 2025 will require unlikely help. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Bears are one win by both the Giants and Patriots or a win of their own from being locked out of a chance for the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

The Patriots also have the toughest remaining schedule now with opponents holding a .721 ranking. The Bears had owned this distinction forever but it has switched and they are tied with the Viking for toughest remaining schedule by winning percentage (.714).

Either way, it looks impossible for the Bears to break that two-team wall to get the top pick even if they lose out because they need both of those teams to win out. They still lose a tiebreaker with either team with their .559 opposing win percentage on the year.

Bears better draft Kelvin Banks or Will Campbell in the draft this spring. This offensive line is atrocious

— Patrick Hayden (@phay2326) December 17, 2024

There does appear an outside chance they could climb past the Jets into eighth because of the season-ending games New York plays. They're hosting Miami in the cold up north to end the year and neither team will have a reason to play that game on Jan. 5. If the Bears lost out and the Jets won a game, the Bears would move past them. But they can't if the two teams tie based on New York's easier schedule.

There is still also hope the Bears could move past part of the five-team logjam at 3-11 on the year but it would mean any of those teams getting at least two victories while the Bears lose out, or three victories if the Bears win one.

At first I thought the discourse on Poles was an overreaction, but the evidence against him is pretty damning. He’s found too few of solutions to add to this roster in 3 years. His 2023 draft looks worse and worse each week. #Bears

— Nadeem (@thedreamn22) December 18, 2024

Based on schedules, the Jaguars, Panthers, Titans and Browns rate the best chances to record two more wins and move behind the Bears in draft order.

Again, the tough Bears schedule this year will cost them in the draft tiebreaker. None of those teams have played a schedule close to the severity of the schedule  the Bears have as a result of the NFC North being so stacked this season. The .559 opponents' winning percentage is a heavy burden to bear for a draft tiebreaker.

The Bears offensive line is awful! It was not addressed in free agency or the draft. #ChicagoBears

— Mitch Russell (@MitchR9696) December 17, 2024

Cleveland's opponents have a .525 winning percentage and that's easily the closest any of those teams are to giving away the tiebreaker edge to the Bears (.559).

Caleb Williams was drafted ahead of Daniels, Maye and Nix because of his talent.

He is playing worse than any of them because of his coaching.

The #Bears are doing it again to another young quarterback. So predictable, so frustrating.

— Mike Greenberg (@Espngreeny) November 10, 2024

Of course, the Bears could ruin it for themselves and win one or two games and finish behind the Saints in 10th for draft positioning if they want to go against the tanking mentality.

Here's the way it shapes up in the tanking, uh, race for the worst record and top spot.

BEN JOHNSON ADMITS HE'S IMPRESSED BY CALEB WILLIAMS' ARM

A REASON FOR BEARS TO HAVE HOPE DESPITE DISMAL COLLAPSE

CAMERON DICKER'S FREE KICK FIELD GOAL AND THE BEARS-PACKERS TIE

BRAXTON JONES BACK PRACTICING

It's a year when tiebreaker really is holding back the Bears and this goes beyond the first round because they have the 36th pick in Round 2 from the Panthers and their own 40th pick, and also the 73rd pick early in Round 3. All can be impacted by the final three games, especially the pick from Carolina if the Panthers win two games.

Ryan Poles keeps the Bears picking in the top 10 NFL Draft. Here’s to never taking the north. pic.twitter.com/v1RnMkEozt

— Bishop 🐻⬇️ (@JairBear7) December 17, 2024

Current Draft Positioning

Team, record, 2024 opponents winning pct.

(lower winning percentage of opponents is the tiebreaker)

1. Raiders 2-12 .537

2. Giants 2-12 .550

3. Patriots 3-11 .464

4. Jaguars 3-11 .483

5. Panthers 3-11 .496

6. Titans 3-11 .510

7. Browns 3-11 .525

8. Jets 4-10 .506

9. Bears 4-10 .559

10. Saints 5-9 .496

I really truly used to be a big believer in Ryan Poles and he has done some good things for the #Bears

1) Drafted Caleb
2) Traded For DJ Moore
3) Fixed Our Cap Situation/Get Rid Of Bad Contracts

But holy cow, his negligence on other things is insane.

1) Hiring and Keeping…

— Faizan Qurashi (@FaizanQurashi) December 19, 2024

Remaining Schedule

Bears: Lions, Seahawks, at Packers

Raiders: Jaguars, at Saints, Chargers

Giants: at Falcons, Colts, at Eagles

Patriots: at Bills, Chargers, Bills

The #Bears can release Gerald Everett and retain 5.5M

They can release Bates and get another 5.5M

It would get them up to 92M in cap space

That and the draft picks are plenty to fix the OL and DL (which should be the ONLY focus in 25)

— Jake (@Jake_B30) December 19, 2024

Jaguars: at Raiders, Titans, at Colts

Panthers: Cardinals, at Buccaneers, at Falcons

Titans: at Colts, at Jaguars, Texans

Browns: at Bengals, Dolphins, at Ravens

Jets: Rams, at Bills, Dolphins

Saints: at Packers, Raiders, at Buccaneers

Outside of Chicago people don’t realize how bad the McCaskeys have been for the Bears. They’ve lost generations of fans and opportunities. If the Bears were smart enough to draft Mahomes the media would say the same thing about him. No QB can survive such inept ownership. pic.twitter.com/SBva9ZAMj5

— Michael Biede (@mikebd21) December 19, 2024

Twitter: BearsOnSI