Bear Digest

The Real Danger to Bears in Upcoming Race for Draft Position

Analysis: The Bears are about to enter the world of draft positioning, and their record and schedule help, but a threat exists to any hopes of "rising" to better position for draft day.

Gene Chamberlain

Packer fans hoping to cash in on the draft are already renting out their homes for the big party, which will be held there in April, and the Bears will soon be staking out their claim for the selection process.
Packer fans hoping to cash in on the draft are already renting out their homes for the big party, which will be held there in April, and the Bears will soon be staking out their claim for the selection process. / Sarah Kloepping/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Bears are sitting in a good spot to tank for the draft without even trying.

Losing being better in the Bizarro World of tanking, the Bears might not have the worst record right now but they are situated in a catbird's seat with one exception.

The schedule determines all. The Bears actually have a shot at the top draft pick since they are only 2 1/2 games out now, but it would be difficult for them even with the schedule they have ahead.

The Bears have completed their "easy" games and it's been known for quite a while how difficult their remaining opponents are.

Numerically speaking, though, it's daunting but not daunting enough to think they can emerge with the top pick, and here's why.

With eight games left, the remaining Bears opponents have a .708 winning percentage. Seattle is the only opponent left with a losing record and the Seahawks have the same record as the Bears at 4-5. This is by far the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL. No one else has a schedule close to this in severity.

The next toughest remaining schedule—or easiest for tanking—belongs to Cleveland at .592 and then New England at .582.

While all of this is commonly known, what hasn't been discussed much is how Matt Eberflus' team has been playing the toughest schedule in the league overall.

Just before the season began, the Bears were facing what was widely reported to be the fourth easiest schedule based on opponents' winning percentage from last year.

As usually is the case, things flip quite a bit in the NFL from year to year. In the real world, you don't play last year's opponents. You're playing this year's teams.

What actually happened is the Bears (4-5) are playing the toughest schedule in the entire NFL this season based on this year's records. And this will be a key factor in draft order.

Bears opponents for the 17-game schedule this season have a .550 winning percentage. The 49ers are facing the next toughest schedule with opponents at .541.

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What does this all mean beyond providing Bears fans a chance to cry themselves to sleep over how their 2024 season fell off a cliff thanks to a Hail Mary pass?

It's important to the draft and to tanking.

The Bears might look like they are well positioned to come away with an early draft pick, but that's only as long as they keep their feet clean, so to speak. They can't be tied with anyone.

Right now they're tied for the 15th worst record but the upcoming schedule says they'll be taking the down elevator in the standings, or up elevator to the penthouse in the tanking Bizarro World.

Any team the Bears finish tied with will own the tiebreaker edge on them in draft order. This might not seem accurate but this is how it works.

For example, if they tied the Patriots in record, the Patriots would draft ahead of them.

This might not seem fair, especially after the way the Patriots embarrassed them on Sunday, but the logic is that if you had the same record against easier competition, you need the help more.

Right now, they are tied for 15th in draft order with Seattle and the Rams. If the season ended today, as they like to say, the Bears draft last among these three teams because they had the toughest schedule.

The other two teams deserve to pick ahead of them because they're considered weaker for owning the same record, but against weaker teams. The fact the Bears beat the Rams doesn't matter, just as it didn't matter if they had lost to the Rams. It's all based on actual strength of schedule.

The bottom line is the Bears can't win for losing, unless they do a really good job of it. As they say in the league, "...on any given Sunday" you might wind up winning, or in this case losing.

So there's plenty of work to do in this Bizarro World of the NFL draft. Time to get tanking.

* Disclaimer: Tanking is merely a tongue-in-cheek expression meant, in this case, to show the benefits of a loss in the draft and is not meant to imply teams actually try to lose on purpose (wink).

2024 Strength of Schedule

(All 17 Opponents)
1. Bears .550
2. 49ers .441
4. Packers .532
4. Cardinals .532

Toughest Remaining Schedule

1. Bears .708
2. Browns .592
3. Patriots .582
4. Panthers .582
5.49ers .581

Twitter: BearsOnSI

Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.