Bear Digest

This Week in the NFC North: Could Balance of Power Shift Now?

Analysis: A look around the NFC North, where the balance of power may have shifted with an injury, and where the competition still looks fierce.

Gene Chamberlain

Teammates gather around injured Aidan Hutchinson, a season-ending injury that could disrupt the NFC North race.
Teammates gather around injured Aidan Hutchinson, a season-ending injury that could disrupt the NFC North race. / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
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It's safe to wonder whether the balance of power in the NFC North might shift now with the season-ending injury to Aidan Hutchinson.

Even with Minnesota unbeaten, the experience and talent level in Detroit had to make the Lions favorites. Without their main and easily their best pass rusher, the Lions might need to amp up the offense to full throttle and try to put up as many points as possible.

Even with a diminished Lions defense, the task ahead for the Bears looks difficult. No division has ever had a win percentage as good as the four combined NFC North teams' record at this point of the season (.773), at least since the merger.

The win by the Bears last week to give every NFC North team a mark of .667 or better led to The Athletic's Austin Mock asking if perhaps the division will become the first one to put every team in the playoffs.

In watered-down playoff pool, this seems inevitable at some point. So why not the NFC North? If the other three teams don't have to face Hutchinson but the Lions' offense is so formidable, it only makes four in the playoffs seem all the more likely.

Last year the AFC North became the first division since the AFL-NFL merger to have all the teams finish with winning records, but the Bengals just missed postseason with a 9-8 mark.

If the Bears, Packers, Vikings and Lions all make it, this still wouldn't be the first time it happened. All four made it 30 years ago when they had a fifth team in the division, Tampa Bay, and it was the NFC Central. The Buccaneers were the only team not to make it from the division.

That season was probably more remarkable because they didn't allow a seventh team into the playoffs in each conference then.

It was the year the Bears got in with Steve Walsh throwing to Curtis Conway and Jeff Graham, and went to Minneapolis in the playoffs to deliver a stunning 35-18 defeat to big-talking John Randle and the division champion Vikings, the only divisional team not to finish 9-7.

While the division looks like a real obstacle ahead, for now the Bears don't need to worry about it because they won't face anyone within it until they host the Packers Nov. 17.

And right now they really don't need to worry about it because they're not even playing this week.

What they must be concerned with, instead, is winning after the bye week because it's been no easy task for this franchise.

Coach Matt Eberflus' two previous teams gave good accounts of themselves after byes, as they lost in 2022 while undermanned against the Super Bowl-bound Eagles 25-20, and last year beat Detroit at Soldier Field 28-13.

However, before last year's win over Detroit, the Bears had lost nine straight times after their bye.

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Losing coming out of this year's bye would no doubt make those division games later all the tougher.

Here's the look around the NFC North in Week 7.

On SI NFC North Rankings

  1. Vikings, 2. Lions, 3. Packers, 4. BEARS

Green Bay Packers

Bill Huber, Green Bay Packers On SI

This Week: Texans at Packers (noon Sunday)

One Thing That Gives You Pause After Strong Start: The Packers' four wins have come against teams with a combined seven wins. So, are the Packers an apex predator or just a paper tiger? Obviously, the Packers will get a gauge of that against the Houston Texans, who are 5-1. Green Bay's record has been fueled by a league-best 2.8 takeaways per game. The Texans are ninth with 1.2 giveaways per game. Are the Packers good enough to beat a good team that doesn't hand them the ball two or three times? Because that's what it's going to take to have success in the playoffs.

Key to Victory in Week 7: It's cliché but the Packers have to stop the run. It's been their Achilles heel forever, it seems, but they did a tremendous job in bottling up the Cardinals' thunder-and-lightning duo of running back James Conner and quarterback Kyler Murray last week. Houston's top running backs, Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce, returned to the lineup last week and both had runs of 50-plus yards. If the Packers can't stop Mixon, it might be Mission Impossible against quarterback C.J. Stroud, whose play-action passer rating of 121.5 ranks seventh in the league.

Minnesota Vikings

Joe Nelson, Minnesota Vikings On SI

This Week: Lions at Vikings (noon Sunday)

One Thing That Gives You Pause After Strong Start: The health of Aaron Jones. It wasn't a coincidence that Minnesota's offense wasn't effective after Jones left the game in London against the Jets with a hip injury. He's now considered week-to-week with what the team now describes as an upper-hamstring injury. When healthy, he's the straw that stirs the offensive drink for Minnesota. If not healthy, Ty Chandler and Cam Akers, whom Minnesota traded for earlier this week, have giant shoes to fill.

Key to Victory in Week 7: Giving Sam Darnold time to throw. We all know that there's a chess match about to unfold between Ben Johnson's scheme on offense against Brian Flores' plan on defense, but Darnold having time to throw will be critical. The thought here is that he'll have plenty of time to pass since Aidan Hutchinson won't be on the field. Hutchinson owns 38% of Detroit's QB pressures and without him there isn't a true threat off the edge to punish Darnold. If the Vikings can handle Detroit's interior, Darnold could have a big day.

Detroit Lions

John Maakaron, Detroit Lions On SI

This Week: Lions at Vikings (noon Sunday)

One Thing That Gives Pause After Strong Start: The injury to Aidan Hutchinson is a major blow. At 4-1, the Lions have looked borderline unstoppable the last two weeks, but losing an elite pass rusher has the potential to cause a major issue for the defense. With no big moves imminent, how Detroit's reserves perform in their effort to pressure Sam Darnold will be under heavy scrutiny.

Key to Victory in Week 7: The Lions are at their best when they're able to establish the run early. Minnesota ranks second in the league in run defense, and coordinator Brian Flores is one of the best in the game. There's an avenue for the Lions to take advantage of Minnesota's 30th ranked pass defense, but Detroit's offensive success tends to tail off when they are one dimensional. Getting going on the ground, and doing so early, would create a major advantage for the Lions in Sunday's pivotal matchup.

Chicago Bears

Gene Chamberlain, Chicago Bears On SI

This Week: Bye Week (Next game Oct. 27 at Washington)

On Thing That Gives You Pauses After Strong Start: Naturally it's the soft schedule. Not only have the four teams they beat compiled a 4-18 record, but the Bears lost to the only teams they played .500 or above (Houston and Indianapolis) and Caleb Williams' passing improvement came against three straight weak defenses. Then again, they won those three games in impressive fashion.

Key to Victory in Week 7: Even though they don't play, they've already achieved the key to winning the bye week. If you're going to have injuries do it prior to the bye so you have time to heal up. Their injured secondary players have a chance to rest before facing the Commanders Oct. 27. Jaquan Brisker (concussion), Kyler Gordon (hamstring) and Tyrique Stevenson (calf) all need time to heal. Also backup cornerback Terell Smith (hip), Stevenson's replacement, still is recovering.T

Twitter: BearsOnSI

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.