Bear Digest

Three Keys to a Chicago Bears Upset of Green Bay Packers

Analysis: The Bears are almost a touchdown underdog at home against their rivals and considering Matt LaFleur's mastery of them in this series, it probably should be more.

Gene Chamberlain

Courtside buddies Matt LaFleur and Matt Eberflus at a Marquette game last season.
Courtside buddies Matt LaFleur and Matt Eberflus at a Marquette game last season. / Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images
In this story:

Think back to the NFL offseason and Matt Eberflus watching basketball courtside at a Marquette game with Packers coach Matt LaFleur.

Bears fans have to hope Eberflus somehow gained some insight on that night into what makes LaFleur so dominant over the Bears. Aaron Rodgers was claiming to own the Bears but LaFleur has the real rights, not Rodgers.

With 10 straight wins over the Bears, LaFleur needs this win to establish the new longest winning streak in the series. The Packers and Brett Favre once won 10 straight over Dave Wannstedt's Bears, a streak that began in an ice storm on Halloween night, 1994 when they retired the jerseys of Gale Sayers and Dick Butkus about 20 years too late, and ended when Bryan Robinson's hand rose up to block a chip shot field goal and Tony Parrish recovered it on the Sunday after the emotional 1999 Soldier Field memorial to the late Walter Payton.

It doesn't seem to sound like it.

"We went against each other when he was back at Tennessee (as coordinators)," Eberflus recalled. "I do believe that he has grown in that capacity.

"I do believe he has good weapons on the outside. That's beneficial. The tight end is a really good player. The protection is really good. They've got some solid offensive linemen up there. And the addition of the runner (Josh Jacobs)–the runner puts them in a position to be a run-first team. He really develops those guys up front to do the scheme. I think their offensive line coaches are really good and I believe they really want to stay ahead of the sticks. He calls it that way. There’s also the explosive side of it, with the explosive plays. I believe they’re No. 3 in runs and No. 10 in passes for explosive plays. They have that side of it, too."

The Packers always had a runner, whether it was Aaron Jones or Jacobs. They've always had good offensive lines, and no matter what they think of Love, Rodgers was definitely better through the course of his long career there. 

LaFleur makes a difference. It's like when Mike Ditka coached the Bears to eight straight over the Packers or Lombardi. As great a coach as Vince Lombardi was, he never won more than five straight over the Bears.

So LaFleur has it going, and the Packers have dominated, but they have lost to other teams.

Here are the three keys to beating Green Bay.

3. Consistent Pressure

The Vikings beat the Packers in Green Bay and did it the way they usually do it. They applied extreme pressure to Love both on defense and offense.

The Vikings turned up the offense like they can, and that forced Love to keep up. There's one way they applied pressure. More than anything else, they hit the Packers with the usual assortment of blitzes by defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Love still threw four touchdown passes. But he also threw three critical interceptions.

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The Bears are not a blitzing team like the Vikings, but when they do it they have been effective. More than anything else, they know how to rush the passer. Even after three straight losses and injuries to Montez Sweat, Andrew Billings and Darrell Taylor, they rank fifth in the league in ESPN's team pass rush win rate. The added advantage of playing at home can help in this regard. Mixing in a few Kyler Gordon slot blitzes or T.J. Edwards blitzing the A-gap couldn't hurt, either.

Whatever they do, they can't let Love be comfortable and the regular pass rush would best occur from between the tackles. In last season's finale, they had nothing to play for and it looked like it on the defensive front. With the exception of DeMarcus Walker, they all seemed to sleep-walk through the game. Love had forever to pick out targets and eventually did. They can't let this happen again and expect to be in the game.

2. Gap Control

The Bears talk all the time about being in their gaps and being gap sound on defense.

They are going against another 4-3 scheme now from Green Bay. When they're on offense, they can do now what the Packers try to do to them and that's get the Green Bay defense out of their gaps in the running game with motion, with jump cuts by runners or variations in the blocking scheme. Misdirection can be a disaster for a one-gap team attacking upfield. It can leave holes to run through.

On defense, being in their gap is the key to shutting down the Packers' biggest strength, and that's gaining bigger chunks on first down. The one problem the Bears have had in the run game at times is Gervon Dexter or their other defensive tackle getting too far upfield too quickly, even if they're in the gap. It becomes like a trap play and the Packers run in the hole behind them.

Both sides of the ball need to control the gaps and on defense this includes the linebackers with their roles because Green Bay's offense starts with a powerful running attack and Josh Jacobs.

1. Be Physical

The Packers might pass well but are a physical team and not a finesse team. People don't understand it when they see Love throwing to Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs or Christian Watson. But it's always been about physicality.

The running game and the way their routes are set up allow them to be physical and to block effectively in the passing game after the catch. 

The way to beat a physical team is by being just as physical, not by out-finessing them.

The Detroit Lions bullied the Packers with their offensive line and beat them. The Eagles did the same thing.

Some of Green Bay's most frustrating losses since LaFleur has been there have been to the 49ers, with George Kittle and Deebo Samuel being physical in the passing game and the running backs pounding away at the Packers.

The Bears look more like a finesse team with D'Andre Swift carrying outside but he can run between the tackles and they can mix in Roschon Johnson runs, as well. They can go to Cole Kmet and Keenan Allen in the passing game. They can set up wide receiver screens to be physical with the cornerbacks. Allen might be older, but he's 6-foot-2, 215 pounds and still can punish a tackler at that size.

Getting it to DJ Moore in the screen game or to Rome Odunze are options, as well. Odunze is no small receiver at 6-3, 215.

Outmuscle them, outphysical them, and be physical on defense.

It sounds a lot like the approach when Ditka was coaching the Bears, the last time they had any sort of comfortable margin in the series with their rivals to the north.

It's what the Packers have been doing to the Bears all these years and Bears fans haven't realized it because they've been too upset about not having a quarterback while Green Bay had one.

Twitter: BearsOnSI

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.