Bear Digest

Three Keys to a Chicago Bears Victory Over Indianapolis Colts

Everyone knows the Bears need to run more to complement Caleb Williams but when everyone knows this it's the toughest time to do it.

Gene Chamberlain

The Bears haven't see D'Andre Swift breaking into the clear enough but that's not easy when he doesn't get the ball enough.
The Bears haven't see D'Andre Swift breaking into the clear enough but that's not easy when he doesn't get the ball enough. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
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Teams rarely hit desperation times in Week 3 and 1-1 teams do not face this situation in the NFL.

It's not must-win time when you've managed to avoid the dreaded 0-2 start, so the Bears can't count themselves among teams teetering on the brink of seeing their season end before it begins.

Only six times since the Super Bowl era started in 1966 have teams made the playoffs after 0-3 starts.

There are two teams in this game at the RCA Dome on Sunday and the Bears need to realize they are facing one that could be facing the incredibly steep odds of recovering from an 0-3 start if they don't win at home. The Colts truly are in desperation mode and can't afford pity parties because they lost defensive tackle stalwart DeForest Buckner to injury last week.

The three keys for a Bears win start with them coming to Indianapolis realizing they can't let down against this opponent on defense just because they're not facing Houston again, and because they're going to get everything the Colts can throw at them with so much at stake.

Here are the three keys for a Bears win over the Colts.

1. Total Confidence in Running Game

Everyone knows the Bears need to run in this game because the Colts defense has been the league's worst against the run, and is without its key run defender. And it's also the case because the Bears have been averaging only 2.48 yards per carry from their backs.

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A defense that knows what the offense is going to do is always going to have the edge and the Bears already are starting off at a disadvantage here.

However, what really is critical for the Bears offense is being committed to D'Andre Swift, Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson in the running game regardless. They have had the tendency to go away from it if the first-down play results in an incompletion or loss of some type, or if the second-down play leaves them facing third-and-2 or longer.

Instead, their baseline needs to be they are running it, and they are running it period. If it's second-and-10, they need yards a run can make up to keep the third down manageable. They can't just abandon the run then automatically. They need to run on third-and-3 sometimes just to keep the Colts honest.

They need running more to set up play-action passing more than anything else because it will give Caleb Williams the chance he didn't have on many of the plays when Houston blitzed them last week.

The run will keep the Colts honest on defense and if they are kept in an honest situation so far they have proven to be extremely easy to beat.

2. Misdirection

One of the keys to the Rams offense under Sean McVay has always been the various directions the offense can make the defense think they're heading with a particular play. Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron brought the scheme to Chicago and they need to use it to its full extent rather than shying away from complicated motions and formations to spare Williams, in only his third start.

It's not just a jet sweep or a motion play that keeps the defense off balance looking in two different places to attack. Sometimes the motion from the blocking scheme and from the presnap motion of receivers or backs takes defenses in two or three directions on the same play. Defenses have their eyes moving all over the place and then the offense can hit them somewhere much more easily, whether it's in the running game or passing game.

The Colts like to sit back in a cover-3 and not blitz. But they are likely to blitz more than they normally do in this game because it's how the Texans and Titans handled Williams. All teams blitz rookies. The problem with the Colts doing it is they don't normally do it very much and when you don't do something much it's difficult to be good at it.

Williams and the offense have the chance to really set up some big plays through misdirection out of what should normally be small plays just by being blitz beaters. Misdirection can be a key here to turning those blitz beaters in the air or on the ground into huge plays.

3. Safety First

The Bears defense needs to arrive focused on protecting against deep passes even if the tendency with the Colts is to load up the box to stop Jonathan Taylor. Anthony Richardson's arm on deep passes is a threat even if pass routes didn't put the receiver in an advantageous position. He'll simply let loose with 50-50 balls designed to take advantage of the safety, who normally isn't going to be as good at going up in such situations to prevent long completions like a cornerback would. He has four completions 50 yards or longer.`          

It's going to mean avoiding any gap issues up front with fewer people in the box against the run because they'll need the extra deep defenders, but Richardson's ability to fire off the cannon is one more likely to put the Bears at a disadvantage in the game quicker than Taylor's running will.

They obviously can't ignore Taylor but both the Packers and Texans eventually were able to at least the amount of running game success while protecting against the deeper ball. Eventually, the Colts fell behind and were forced to abandon the run anyway. It's why

Even if it means giving up passing in shorter areas, they need to be willing able to rally to those just to keep the extra defenders back and protect against Richardson's big arm quickly turning it into a different game. In short, they need to be more patient than he is in this cat-and-mouse game and if they are Kevin Byard or Jaquan Brisker can come away with picks instead of seeing deep passes sailing over their heads.

Twitter: BearsOnSI

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.