Bear Digest

Three Keys to Week 12 Chicago Bears Upset of Minnesota Vikings

The Bears need to amp up the interior pass rush and stop the run to have any chance against Minnesota, which is certain to come after Chicago QB Caleb Williams.

Gene Chamberlain

Gervon Dexter, as both a pass rusher and run defender, is a huge key to anything the Bears do against the Vikings Sunday.
Gervon Dexter, as both a pass rusher and run defender, is a huge key to anything the Bears do against the Vikings Sunday. / Mike Dinovo-Imagn Images
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For all their unique and effective style, and their 8-2 record, the Minnesota Vikings have looked extremely beatable of late.

It's just that no one is doing it.

If anyone should know how to defend the Minnesota Vikings offense, though, it's the Bears.

Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell brought over the same Rams/Sean McVay offense that the Bears are left with after Shane Waldon's firing.

The difference is in the preparation, tweaking and application.

As for the other side of the ball, there are no defenses blitzing as often (37.7% of passes via Stathead/Pro Football Reference) or as effectively (29.6% pressure achieved) as the Minnesota Vikings.

Yet, they get burned with the overextend with the pressure. They're ranked 10th overall and fourth in scoring defense but they have given up more than 21 points four times and the Bears defense has done this once.

There could be opportunities for the Bears and whether they capitalize will depend largely on the pass rush—their own and that of the Vikings.

For as complex as the Vikings defense's blitzing schemes are and their offense is, the keys to beating them are surprisingly simple.

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Here are the three keys to a Bears upset of the Vikings.

3. Gervon Dexter

Interior pass rush pressure by the defensive tackles is going to be huge here. It can be Dexter or it can be DeMarcus Walker when they move him inside to rush or it can even be Zacch Pickens, but the Bears need to get in Sam Darnold's face and shorten the pocket up.

Sure, Darnold is fairly mobile, but it's not so easy stepping out away from the rush when "out" means contending on one side with Montez Sweat.

Where this all leads is the Bears' rush cannot be with the blitz.

Darnold leads the NFL in beating the blitz. He has a 145 passer rating against it, according to Pro Football Focus.

If they can achieve pressure without it, they might get the takeways they desire. The Vikings have turned it over seven times in the last three games. Darnold has 10 interceptions, or twice the total Caleb Williams has thrown.

In losing back-to-back games to the Lions and Rams, the Vikings allowed seven total sacks.

2. Deep Trench

The Bears run defense will be the most important aspect of this game for their upset hopes. Rendering the Vikings one dimensional is a necessity. Detroit didn't really do it but the Lions made up for it with their own offense.

The Bears are not going to be able to do this unless Caleb Williams suddenly shows abilities like a veteran at reading blitzes, and the Bears' struggling offensive line suddenly finds it can block the blitz. 

So keeping Aaron Jones in check in the running game is a requirement because they'll know the Vikings are passing and can calibrate accordingly for the rush.

The problem here is they haven't been able to totally shut down running games all year, even before Andrew Billings went out for the year.

So it will take Gervon Dexter, Zacch Pickens, Chris Williams and Byron Cowart sealing up the interior and T.J. Edwards making the tackles, for loss or otherwise, if they're going to achieve their goal of making Minnesota more predictable. They need it to look like a deep trench at the line of scrimmage and Jones isn't getting past it, even if this hasn't been a team strength this season.

1. Point Guard

The ball needs to be out of Caleb Williams' hand yesterday.

He can't think about doing damage deep until they've established the short passing game because that will allow them yards after the catch and to avoid the blitz. Three-step drop, some five-step drop, screen passes to receivers and backs, slants and drag routes, the quick outs. It's all got to be part of what Williams is thinking.

Williams got the ball out of his hand in 2.42 seconds on average against the Packers according to NFL NextGen Stats. That's almost half a second faster than his season average. It needs to come out that fast, if not faster, against the Vikings, who are much more adept at getting to the QB than the Packers with 35 sacks, third-highest total in the league.

And then they can occasionally go max protect and take a deep shot. But then it's back to the short stuff and getting the ball out of his hand.

Last week Williams had the right idea in getting it out of his hand fast most of the day. It needs to be even quicker against Minnesota.

Twitter: BearsOnSI

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.