Bear Digest

Why to Trade or Not Trade with Four Bears Draft Picks

There is a time and place for everything in the NFL draft and with the Bears trading back could be an option with their last three picks to varying degrees.

Gene Chamberlain

Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner forces a fumble against South Florida.
Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner forces a fumble against South Florida. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
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The Bears currently own four picks in the 2024 NFL Draft.

If the load seems a bit light, rest assured, it is.

Since the NFL began the draft in 1933, the Bears have never made less than five picks. They made five selections in 2010, 2011, 2017 and 2019.

When GM Ryan Poles began his job, his first statement was about building the team through the draft. This can't be done with paltry draft harvests of four picks.

It's the main reason to anticipate Poles will trade back at some point.

Here are the pros and cons of trading back from each draft spot for the Bears in order to generate a bigger infusion of talent.

Round 1, Pick No. 1

The high probability of drafting Caleb Williams has been a foregone conclusion since the March 16 Justin Fields' trade. Realistically it makes little sense to entertain thoughts the Bears will move back from No. 1 at this point and send Williams' rights to Washington at No. 2 or any other team after they dealt their starting QB. They don't have a quarterback and they can get one being called a potential franchse player for years. The surprise offer they can't refuse would need to be utterly ridiculous and loaded with players they might want besides draft picks, something bigger than the trade back from No. 9 with Carolina last year when they acquired DJ Moore. This is how far into the Williams selection process they are at this point.

Why Trade: They could set themselves up with more first-round picks for several years to come if they desired. With this, they could then draft one of the other quarterbacks, maybe a better third receiver or edge rusher to complement Montez Sweat and wouldn't be worrying about the talent drop off by the time they make pick No. 3 in Round 3 at No. 75. The quarterback they would embrace? They showed an awful lot of interest in J.J. McCarthy, more than in Jayden Daniels and far more than in Drake Maye.

No Trade: If they did do something like this, it would mean taking a lesser quarterback. Anyone not named Williams would be a significant step down. An unnamed NFC scout told ESPN's Jordan Reid that Williams is a "franchise-altering" quarterback. The Bears have needed this for an awful long time and turning down this type of player makes absolutely no sense. They've already loaded up the team to help a rookie quarterback by trading for veteran help at wide receiver with Keenan Allen and at No. 2 tight end with Gerald Everett.

Round 1, Pick No. 9

Most projections say the Bears will face the decision between the third-best wide receiver or the second- or third-best edge rusher. It's uncommon for a team to have the opportunity to draft the best player on a particular side of the football from the No. 9 spot, but this is what could happen to the Bears if all four quarterbacks, the top three wide receivers and tackle Joe Alt all get selected before the ninth pick.

Why Trade: This pick is in a spot where some teams could still be looking to trade up and take a particular tackle or wide receiver, or even a quarterback if the picks fail differently than most mock drafts predict. If someone wanted the top cornerback, Terrion Arnold of Alabama or Cooper DeJean from Iowa, trading up to No. 9 might be a good place to get that player before someone in the second 10 can simply wait for him. As a result, there is more value in terms of picks in exchange for trading back. Staying put and picking a player is the thing to do if they've fallen in love with someone and that's their choice. However, last year they were in that situation with Darnell Wright after trading back to No. 9 with Carolina. Then they saw they could get an extra fourth-rounder by trading with the Eagles at No. 10. They knew the Eagles weren't taking Wright and wanted Jalen Carter so they moved back and obtained the fourth-round pick. Something like this wouldn't be out of the question as they're already in the ninth spot. If someone moves up to take the third receiver, then the Bears might not get a chance at Rome Odunze. With Atlanta and Tennessee immediately ahead of them, it's possible the top edge rusher could also be gone. That would be Dallas Turner to most people.

The Bears might have talent graded differently and are satisfied taking Florida State's Jared Verse ninth. This isn't known. But Turner is reportedly scheduled for a Top 30 visit. If he's gone, if they can't get the No. 2 edge rusher or No. 3 wide receiver, then moving back might be the best option. The Jets are at No. 10 and if both the second-best edge rusher and third wide receiver were there available, they could play games and offer to swap picks with the Jets. It's a long time to wait from No. 9 to No. 75 while talent flies off the board. If there was any way to get a second-round pick or third-rounder ahead of 75 by moving down to the middle of the draft, it might be worthwhile.

No Trade: They've fallen in love with a particular edge rusher, are certain he'll be there, and will just take him. The same could be true about Odunze at No. 9, and he is among those scheduled to visit Halas Hall.

Round 3, Pick No. 75

The lack of a second-round picks means the Bears are facing a big drop off in talent from their second first-round pick by the time they make their third pick. They haven't had success drafting starters in Round 3 with Poles as GM so far. Zacch Pickens looks like a rotation member on the line who needs to improve greatly to make a bigger impact. Velus Jones Jr. hasn't been a success at all. The Bears need to hit on someone here considering the big gap between their second pick and third pick.

Why Trade: This is still early in Round 3 and from here they could very easily deal back, stay in Round 3 and get an extra pick for Day 3 while staying at a comparable talent level.
No Trade: It's already a long time to wait between No. 9 and No. 75. And you're going to make it an even longer wait? Get real. The talent level at receiver and edge could be just deep enough to hold up until No. 75 but not much later. For instance, if they take an edge in Round 1, the big board for NFL Mock Draft Database predicts they could still get a receiver like Alabama's Jermaine Burton, Washington's Jalen McMillan or Williams' USC friend and teammate Brenden Rice as late as No. 90 in Round 3 but trade back even more and they'll be looking at a significant drop.

Round 4, Pick No. 122

The fourth round is the first round of the last day and, as such, teams have been able to look overnight and weight what's left in the draft to make wise decisions. It's always good to have a fourth-round pick to add valued depth or even a starter for positions where players are usually not valued as highly, like, sadly, running back.

Why Trade: The point total on the value chart for these picks on Day 3 begin to shrink significantly. So it's relatively easy to come up with several picks for one move back. If your idea is to get multiple swings in the talent batter's box, this can do it for you. Certain positions can always be found in Rounds 4-7, such as tight end, safety and even center. The Bears could use players at these spots.

No Trade: The fourth round is an excellent place to capture pieces slipping through the cracks from the first two days but moving back more, past 122, lessens the chance of this happening. The later picks in drafts, particularly rounds 6 and 7, rarely net much so why trade back and take picks from those rounds?o Poles made 12 picks so far from Rounds 5 or later. One of the 12 became a starter. That's Braxton Jones. Another was punter Trenton Gill. Five have been cut, some of which returned on practice squad or even left for another team at one point. Why worry about the late picks with that track record?\

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Gene Chamberlain

GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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