Bear Digest

What Bears Really Need for Wins in Caleb Williams' Rookie Year

History says the balance the Bears have assembled on offense behind Caleb Williams hasn't really been what lets rookie quarterbacks win enough games to make the playoffs.

Gene Chamberlain

If the Bears want wins by Caleb Williams next year, history says they need him dropping back to pass less.
If the Bears want wins by Caleb Williams next year, history says they need him dropping back to pass less. / Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
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Bears coach Matt Eberflus and general manager Ryan Poles marveled at the talent assembled after the draft.

"It's really big for our football team," Poles said. "I think we made huge strides forward. There's work to be done, but this is an impact draft for this organization for sure."

The most important impact, of course, is immediate impact. What are you going to do for me now, in 2024? Chicago has seen enough losing.

Quarterback Caleb Williams and wide receiver Rome Odunze in Round 1 are the immediate impact players on offense.


The draft completed Poles' attempt to surround his rookie QB with talent, going back to Keenan Allen, Gerald Everett and D'Andre Swift joining Cole Kmet and DJ Moore.

SCHEDULE RELEASE FOR BEARS COMING NEXT WEEK INSTEAD

DJ MOORE SEES MORE BALANCED PASSING GAME POSSIBLE

THE HISTORY ROME ODUNZE AND CALEB WILLIAMS HAVE IN SIGHT

BACKFIELD COMPETITION COULD BE BEARS MOST HEATED

"They're different skillset," Eberflus said of his new weapons. "So I think that's a credit to Ryan to be able to bring those guys together, acquire those guys, and I think it's going to be very difficult to defend."

It's easy to make a case for this being the most balanced and talented group of weapons at skill positions a rookie quarterback ever. Put this together with new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, and it would be easy to see Williams succeeding as a rookie where so many other first-year QBs struggle.

Then again, when most rookie QBs struggle, even numerous weapons across the board are not enough sometimes to prepare a QB for success.

Balance does not appear to be the weapon they most require. Sure, it looks good on paper.

What the most successful rookie quarterbacks have had in almost all cases is something to take pressure off of them. Almost none of the most successful in terms of victories, have had passing-running balance.

The name of the game is winning and only eight rookie quarterbacks in this century have won 10 games and taken their teams into the playoffs as the main starter.

The 10 wins is what's required because making it with nine wins without winning the division, like the Packers did last year, is rare. They were the only one of six teams with a 9-8 record to make it last season. Over the three years of 17-game schedules only four non division winners with 9-8 records out of 15 teams to finish 9-8 got into the playoffs.

So 10-7 is the target.

Of eight QBs who took their teams into the playoffs with 10 wins, only one had a truly balanced offense backing him and was backed by no dominant defense. Every one of the others relied on running and defense and not balance.

They took pressure off the first-year passer with the run and defense. Propping up the first-year quarterback and not balance is what wins games right away.

Williams might truly need to be special if he is to get the Bears to 10 wins with a balanced attack as a rookie. Later on, it's a different story.

What's important is getting the rushing attempts up so Williams isn't required to do everything himself. Otherwise, a rookie year like Peyton Manning experienced occurs—28 interceptions to 26 touchdown passes.

Here's what happened when a rookie quarterback took at team into the playoffs with 10 wins. Of note, C.J. Stroud didn't get 10 wins as starter for Houston last year.

2005: Kyle Orton, Bears

The Bears won the division and got intothe playoffs with 10 wins coming from Orton as a rookie. They had him throw only 368 passes. They were eighth in rushing attempts and 30th in pass attempts. Even with Rex Grossman returning at the end from injury, they were 30th in pass attempts. They somehow overcame Orton's nine TD passes and 13 interceptions for 15 starts with a defense ranked second and No. 1 in scoring, while finishing top 10 in rushes and rushing yards.

2008: Matt Ryan, Falcons

Ryan and the Falcons offense heavily leaned on a running back whose season isn't praised enough. It was former Northern Illinois back Michael Turner, who had 376 rushing attempt (1,699 yards) and made All-Pro and the Pro Bowl. Ryan managed to guide the Falcons to 11 wins but they were only 29th in pass attempts (434) while finishing second in rushing attempts. Ryan had only 61.1% completions and an 87.7 passer rating when he won rookie of the year.

2008: Joe Flacco, Ravens

As a rookie he got them to 11 wins and they made the AFC championship game before losing to Pittsburgh. Flacco threw only 428 times and Baltimore was 30th in pass attempts. They were first in rushing attempts, fourth in rushing yards and second on defense.

2012: Russell Wilson, Seahawks

Wilson took them to 11 wins with an offense that was last in pass attempts, first in rushing attempts and third in rushing yards. Wilson did run to help, but 94 rushes for 489 yards isn't quite the 1,000-yard rushing seasons like Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields had. He was supported by the No. 1 scoring defense and No. 4 defense in yards allowed.

2012: Andrew Luck, Colts

The only quarterback who wasn't supported by a top rushing attack or a top defense in getting his team to at least 10 wins as a rookie. Luck appropriately describes it. He had Ty Hilton, Reggie Wayne and Donnie Avery as wide receiver targets, and they caught fire when coach Chuck Pagano had to leave for a chunk of the season with leukemia while Bruce Arians took over. Luck had only a 76.5 passer rating, threw only five more TD passes (23) than interceptions (18) and he had to throw it 627 times. They were only 17th in rushing attempts and were supported by the 26th best defense. This bucks the trend entirely.

2016: Dak Prescott, Cowboys

He led them to 13 wins as a rookie QB and they lost the first playoff game. Prescott was propped up by Ezekiel Elliott and an offense No. 1 in rushing attempts. Elliott had 322 of those.  They were second in rushing and No. 4 in scoring defense and with Prescott at QB they were only 30th in pass attempts.

2004: Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers

The rookie who went unbeaten as a starter at 13-0. Roethlisberger and Tommy Maddox threw it only 358 times. They led in defensive yards and scoring and were first in rushing and second in rushing attempts while finishing last in passes thrown. In fact, no team since this one has thrown it so little.

2018: Mac Jones, Patriots

His career started fast and went down the drain. Bill Belichick's defense was No. 4 and second in scoring, passing yards allowed and interceptions. They were eighth in rushing attempts and only 25 in pass attempts and Jones got them to the 10 wins and a playoff berth with his solid 92.5 rookie passer rating.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.