Bear Digest

What Betting Lines Say About Bears Chance for Winning Season

While the over-under was 8 1/2 on the Bears season with oddsmakers, the actual individual breakdown of lines on their games at schedule release says something quite different.

Gene Chamberlain

Cole Kmet powers ahead after making a catch against the Lions last season at Ford Field.
Cole Kmet powers ahead after making a catch against the Lions last season at Ford Field. / David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports
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When betting lines came out with over/under for wins this offseason, the Bears came in at 8 1/2, exactly .500.

They had the third-best over/under in the NFC North, a game behind Green Bay and two behind the Detroit Lions, one ahead of Minnesota.

With the actual schedule out, as they say, it's time to put your money where your mouth is. It seems the week-by-week breakdown of the way this schedule falls produces a different number of favorite roles for the Bears.

DraftKings betting lines for all 17 Bears games show exactly what the BearDigest assessment of this season is and that is a 10-7 season.

The Bears are favored in 10 of their games and are underdogs in seven.

BEARDIGEST PREDICTS HOW BEARS WILL DO GAME BY GAME

HIGHS AND LOWS OF BEARS SCHEDULE

THE CALEB WILLIAMS-FRIENDLY BEARS SCHEDULE IS OUT

GEORGE MCCASKEY HAS EVEN LESS CHANCE OF DODGING HARD KNOCKS

As usually is the case this early when less is known, the range in betting lines is small.

The worst line the Bears face is -5 1/2 in the Week 14 game at San Francisco. The best line is -5 1/2 at home against the Carolina Panthers, who made it possible for them to draft quarterback Caleb Williams with the 2023 trade.

The soft underbelly of the Bears schedule is pretty obvious. After they are favorites in three of their first six games, they are favored in five straight.

Actually, they're surprising favorites but only by 1 1/2 at home against the Rams in Week 4 and counting that game they are favorites in seven of their next eight games.

Bears fans who bet on their games can find real bargains by putting the money down on some games at this point.

Losing teams in rebuild or perpetual rebuild mode like the Panthers, Commanders, Cardinals and Patriots are all about as low as the point spread will get at this

point. Barring injuries, the Bears only figure to gain more points in a favorite role going forward against those teams.

The Washington game looks particularly wrong. The Bears are only two-point favorites over a team they beat 40-20 last year. And in that game Chicago was forced to go on the road on a Thursday night. 

It is always possible one of those teams is this year's Houston Texans. Washington might be a popular choice for this because Jayden Daniels was the second QB in the draft just as C.J. Stroud was. But the infrastructure in Washington and holdover talent does not exist there the way it did for the new coaching staff in Houston. In other words, their front office situation and ownership is still in a flux situation. Also, Houston had been in a situation of drafting very early for years and had a buildup of talent. The Commanders were busy giving away good talent, like Montez Sweat, just last year.

Some of the more questionable situations where the Bears are giving up points are the game at Minnesota and the Rams game. L.A. doesn't face a weather disadvantage because the game is in September, and Sean McVay has been busy retooling behind the scenes the last two years even while he made the playoffs last year.  

Here's how DraftKings set those lines as of Thursday, the day after the schedule release.

Bears 2024 Schedule

Regular Season Betting Lines

Week 1: Bears favored by 4 1/2 hosting Titans

Week 2: Bears get 3 at Texans

Week 3: Bears get 2 at Colts

Week 4: Bears favored by 1 1/2 home vs. Rams

Week 5: Bears favored by 5 1/2 h vs. Panthers

Week 6: Bears get 1 point at London against Jaguars

Week 7: BYE

Week 8: Bears favored by 2 at Commanders

Week 9: Bears favored by 1 at Cardinals

Week 10: Bears favored by 4 1/2 hosting Patriots

Week 11: Bears favored by 1 hosting Packers

Week 12: Bears favored by 3 hosting Vikings

Week 13: Bears get 3 1/2 at Lions on Thanksgiving

Week 14: Bears get 5 1/2 at 49ers 

Week 15: Bears favored by 1 at Vikings

Week 16: Bears get 2 hosting Lions

Week 17: Bears favored by 3 1/2 hosting Seahawks

Week 18: Bears get 3 at Green Bay

  • Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
  • If you or someone you know has agamblingproblem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Twitter: BearDigest@Bears

Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.