What History Suggests About Caleb Williams' Rookie Success

Quarterbacks chosen first overall usually have problems with turnovers, consistency and winning but Caleb Williams has something on his side most have lacked.

Caleb Williams has a factor working in his favor that only a few other picks chosen first overall have had. / Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports

The chances of Caleb Williams coming to the Bears and lighting it up as a rookie seem unlikely.

What happened to C.J. Stroud last year was truly unique but in Williams' case he'll carry along the mantel of first player drafted overall.

Quarterbacks drafted first lack great success records, but in general quarterbacks are not very good as rookies no matter how they get into the league. It's called the toughest position in sports for a reason, and passers who lack experience at the highest level of play ned an adjustment time.

This will not sit well with all of the Justin Fields fans among Bears backers, who are expecting—no, demanding—Williams be flawless because he supplanted their favorite player.

It's not likely to happen, at least based on what has happened with past quarterbacks chosen first overall. They have problems like any quarterback does as a rookie.

There is good news, however.

Either scouting has been better, coaching of the players chose first overall has been better, their overall teams have been better and also they might be better. The stats suggest the quarterbacks chosen first overall now have a much better chance to put up acceptable numbers and be successful as rookies.

So here's what the Bears can look forward to with Williams chosen first.

More Interceptions, Less TDs

Of the 27 quarterbacks chosen first overall since the NFL-AFL merger, 13 threw more touchdown passes than interceptions as rookies. Of the 27, 12 threw more interceptions and two threw the same number.

Ah, but the good news. Of the 13 rookies who threw more TDs than interceptions, eight were among the last 10 quarterbacks to be drafted first overall.

In other words, they're far more likely these days to be able to avoid this problem than in past years.

Peyton Manning threw 28 interceptions as a rookie. Troy Aikman threw twice as many interceptions (18) as touchdown passes (9) in his first year. Poor Alex Smith threw one TD pass and 11 interceptions. John Elway was spinning out of control with seven TD passes and 14 interceptions.

However, starting with Sam Bradford in 2010, the great change began. Bradford (18 TDs/15 INTS), Cam Newton (21/17), Andrew Luck (23/17), Jameis Winston (22/15), Baker Mayfield (27/14), Kyler Murray (20/12), Joe Burrow (13/5) and Bryce Young (11/10) all threw more TD passes than inteceptions as rookies.

The only two among the last 10 chosen first who didn't do this were Trevor Lawrence (12/17) and Jared Goff (5/7), and Goff only got to play in seven games. Lawrence, meanwhile, had to play with a Jaguars team so poorly coached by Urban Meyer that he probably could have been Patrick Mahomes and wouldn't have been able to accomplish much.

High Interception Rate

Along with the number of interceptions, the interception rate has plummeted.

Since Bradford in 2010, only Newton (3.5%) and Goff (3.4%) have thrown for interception rates of 3% or more. Prior to Bradford, 14 of the 15 QBs drafted first overall had interception rats of 3% or more.

Terry Bradshaw had an 11% interception rate as a rookie with 24 total. It was a different game then. No wonder they ran the ball so much.

Mediocre Completion Pct.

The completion percentages in football overall have risen with the West Coast offense and rule changes but it's still no guarantee a rookie chosen first is going to come into the league and cook it at 65% or higher.

Joe Burrow is the only QB of 27 chosen first overall who completed 65% (65.3%) as a rookie.

Again, the number of QBs with higher percentages have increased in recent years but neither Lawrence (59.6%) nor Young (59.8%) got to 60% and of the 27 only Mayfield (63.8%), Murray (64.4%), Burrow (65.3%) and Carson Palmer (60.8%) went over 60% completions their first years.

Element of Mystery

The key factor in all of it is the team they are going to join. Williams is likely to lead a Bears team coming off a 7-10 record, one that was three blown leads away from being a playoff team. The Bears would have won the playoff tiebreaker over the Rams at 10-7 if they held on to the games against Detroit, Denver and Cleveland that they squandered.

Usually the QB taken first doesn't just join a mediocrity or a bad team. They're playing for a really bad team.

Only three QBs of the 27 drafted first overall have gone to a team with more than four wins the previous season. In fact, there have been only two QBs who went to teams with four wins the previous year so 20 of the 27 teams won three games or less the previous season.

Jeff George was gifted with a Colts team that was 8-8 the previous year. He led them to a 7-9 record in 1990 as a rookie. Young went to Carolina because of the trade with the Bears and the Panthers had been 7-10 in 2022. Goff was taken by a Rams team that was 7-9 the previous year and they went 4-12 in his first year, although he only played in seven games.

The only QBs selected first to be the main starters for teams to make the playoffs in their first years were Andrew Luck and John Elway.

It's not asking too much to suggest Williams can do it.

The keys will be the support from a team with more talent than teams have where top picks go, coaching, and whether Williams handles the transition to a higher level of play.

QBs Chosen First Overall

Best TD/Interception Ratio

(Since AFL-NFL merger)

Baker Mayfield, Browns, 2018, 27 TDs, 14 INTs

Kyler Murray, Cardinals, 2019, 20 TDs, 12 INTs

Joe Burrow, Bengals, 2020, 13 TDs, 5 INTs

Jameis Winston, Buccaneers, 2015, 22 TDs, 15 INTs

Andrew Luck, Colts, 2012, 23 TDs, 18 INTs

Cam Newton, Panthers, 2011, 21 TDs, 17 INTs

Jim Plunkett, Patriots, 1971, 19 TDs, 16 INTs

Sam Bradford, Rams, 2010, 18 TDs, 15 INTs

Jeff George, Colts, ,1990, 16 TDs, 13 INTs

Tim Couch, Browns, 1999, 15 TDs, 13 INTs

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