Bear Digest

What the Bears Do Well on Offense and Where They Struggle

Analysis: What the Bears don't do well with the ball so far seems fairly obvious but what they've done better might be a bit surprising.

Gene Chamberlain

Caleb Williams looks for a target from the pocket in Sunday's win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Caleb Williams looks for a target from the pocket in Sunday's win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. / Peter van den Berg-Imagn Images
In this story:

Now so much looks possible for Caleb Williams and the Bears offense after three straight strong efforts, two against dreadful defenses.

The reason for the optimism is they took a step. Shane Waldron's offense didn't look capable of this type of play earlier, even against a struggling Colts defense.

The next step is to accomplish something against an average or good NFL defense, then to do it on the road. Finally, it will be to do it against a divisional opponent because the NFC North looks more and more like a dead end for teams who tread there with a combined 17-5 record, easily the best in the league. The Bears still have three games before they face a team from their own division, so they still have time to improve the offense.

The next Bears game against Washington might provide this opportunity, although Washington would fit in more toward the bottom of being average. They are 22nd in the league, 19th against the pass and 22nd against the run.

Here's what the Bears offense is doing well, and not so well.

Bears Offensive Struggles

Run Up the Middle

They average 2.71 yards per run up the middle according to NFLGSIS.com. This is last in the NFL.

They don't do it very often, either. Their 24 runs up the middle ranks only 29th, but averaging only 2.71 yards is atrocious.

It's a sign of several things. One is lack power in the center of the line and another is the lack of a power runner. Roschon Johnson has gotten more and more involved in their offense since Week 2, so this could improve.

They also haven't run it consistently overall. They're 25th running around left end (3.97 yards per rush), 27th off left tackle (3.61), 28th off right tackle (3.19). The only place they run it effectively on the inside of the line is left guard (13th, 4.33). This should surprise no one because their left guard is Teven Jenkins, who needs a new contract.

ANALYTICS SITES STARTING TO CATCH ON TO THE BEARS

BEARS ADD LONG SNAPPER SO COLE KMET CAN FOCUS ON PLAYING TIGHT END

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BEARS-COMMANDERS KICKOFF MOVED BACK TO 3:25 P.M.

Maybe their biggest problem is running it too often around left end. People know it's coming by now. They've run around left end 34 times and to no other spot on the offensive front no more than 24 times.

Although they've run it for 6.95 yards per carry around right end, which ranks fourth in the league, they have run it there only 22 times. And they've run it around left end 34 times but gained only 3.97 yards. It sounds a bit like banging your head against a wall over and over again.

Short-Yardage Runs

The goal line situation against the Colts still ranks as their rushing nightmare this year but they've been bad no matter where they are on the field in short yardage.

They went backwards from the 1-yard line on fourth down with an option pitch and lost yardage on that day. First-and-goal at the 4 and they couldn't score. They lost 21-16. A TD there and the game looks entirely different.

The Bears have faced second-and-1 five times and have gained no yards. They rank 31st in the league on second-and-1 for yards gained. They've faced second-and-1 or second-and-2 12 times and picked up eight first downs. When they have had second-and-3 and ran, they failed to gain a first down once. On second-and-4, they average 2.5 yards when they run.

They do not get the tough yards needed for the first down.

On third-and-1 they have run it five times and averaged 2.2 yards but picked up first downs on only two of their attempts.

Deep Passing Outside

Caleb Williams' deep passing hasn't been as on the mark at the start of his career as in college, although it has improved.

The Bears have completed 18% when he throws deep left (Longer than 15 yards), which ranks next to last in the league. When they throw deep and to the right, they complete 25% and that's 25th in the league. They average  only 6.12 yards per attempt for pass attempts beyond 10 yards to the left and that's 30th in the league. It's 8.58 yards per attempt to the right, which is 20th in the league.

As the connection builds, and if they can improve the pass blocking, they'll expect thes efigures to improve.

Short Passing Over the Middle

The huge majority of their pass plays are shorter to the left or right and for good reason. When they throw shorter than 15 yards in the middle of the field, they average only 5.88 yards per attempt, which is 29th in the league. And they apparently realize this because they rarely throw short middle compared to short left and right. They have only 24 attempts short and middle and their 63% completions for those passs is 26th in the league.

What might change all of this now are throws to Keenan Allen, which are picking up.

Where They're Better

Deep Middle Passing

As terrible as they have been at throwing deeper, beyond 15 yards to the outside, they have been extremely effective throwing it in the middle of the field deeper. That's usually a terrible place for a young passer to throw, but not for Williams unless he is throwing late. Then it's terrible for any QB because it can lead to interceptions

Williams has an average gain per attempt of 16.67 yards when throwing deeper over the middle, which ranks 11th in the league. But even better is that he has completed 67% of those throws and that ranks seventh in the league.

The problem is it's ill advised to throw deep over the middle and Williams knows it. He has thrown only six passes there and complete four. 

Short Passing Outside

They've completed 78% throwing short left and rank seventh in the league, and are fifth in the league in attempts short and left.  Their success rate short right is 6.6 yards an attempt, which is seventh in the league, and they're both 12th in completion percentage for those plays (73%) and number of short passes right (70).

Runs Around Right End

As inconsistent as their running game has been overall, and in particular up the middle, they have been exactly the opposite on runs around right end.

The Bears average 6.95 yards per carry on their 22 runs around the right side and it ranks fourth in the league. Their 22 runs is ninth most around the right side, but with that kind of success they might want to consider trying it even more. They've run it 12 fewer times around right end, where they average 6.95, than around the left side, where they average 3 yards left.

Caleb Williams Scrambles

He's not the fastest quarterback or slowest or trickiest runner but Williams is effective deciding when to run and when to throw on the run.

He scrambled three times on second down and picked up the first down three times. He scrambled three times on plays when he needed eight to 10 yards on third down and picked up the first down each time. He has also picked up a first down on three attempts of first-and-10 or longer and that's uncommon.

"He's a strong player in the pocket and he is strong in the open field," Bears coach Matt Eberflus said. "He's got ability to square you up. Then be able to capture edges and also be able to escape and be strong enough to be able to escape when people do have him in the grasp.

"He's a hard get, and he's done a good job of that so far.”

Yards After the Catch

Believe it or not, the Bears are finally in the top half of the league in yards after the catch. They are 13th in YAC (721 yards) and 12th in yards after catch per completion (5.5).
They were 27th in the league and last in the league in Luke Getsy's two years, and have been higher than 27th once since they last won the NFC North in 2018.

Holding Onto the Football

They have only two lost fumbles. Only four teams have fewer. Williams has fumbled it three times in six games.

By the way, Justin Fields fumbled six times in six games for the Steelers and now has 44 fumbles in 46 games with 44 starts.

Twitter: BearsOnSI

Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.