Bear Digest

Whatever Happened to the 2024 Chicago Bears?

Analysis: The Bears celebrated their great victory in London and then that team seemed to have disappeared. Here's what happened to the 2024 Chicago Bears.

Gene Chamberlain

Caleb Williams with the crowd on the field at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London after a win, in the 2024 Bears glory days.
Caleb Williams with the crowd on the field at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London after a win, in the 2024 Bears glory days. / Peter van den Berg-Imagn Images
In this story:

The Bears are a rudderless ship, floating along until they can be given new direction from another coaching staff at season's end.

Even if interim coach Thomas Brown succeeds in providing direction while winning the confidence of GM Ryan Poles and president Kevin Warren going forward, chances are good they'll get new direction as a staff reforms under him in the offseason. And they'll go a different direction entirely if the coach comes from outside the current situation.

When the season began it all looked so promising, with five wins in eight games to close 2023 and a new hot-shot passer arriving in Caleb Williams. They appeared set to advance. Then they collapsed after the Hail Mary pass in Washington Oct. 27 with seven straight losses.

One theory is the entire rebuild was placed over a rotting, crumbling foundation.

In some ways this was true because the base of the team is always the offensive and defensive lines and they never did enough to fortify those before addressing other areas, such as wide receiver. No less a successful, experienced head coach than Bill Belichick pointed out several times this year how Poles built the team the wrong way and didn't pay enough attention to the offensive line. Ironically, this was viewed as Poles strength as a former lineman himself.

He was right, although it wasn't the only problem.

The Bears GM and former coach Matt Eberflus made their major errors in their offseason assessments before 2024 free agency and the draft. All came back to destroy what was already built

Here's where it all went wrong for the 2024 Bears. In some cases, it couldn't be prevented and time/experience can correct the problem, like with their QB. It was a matter of timing. In others, there's a lot to overcome in the offseason for whoever remains as head coach, and possibly even GM.

1. Matt Eberflus

Poles' big mistake was hiring a coach who had no head coaching experience. The Tribune's Dan Wiederer had a sourced report with a shocking, scenario: Poles had hired for head coach a defensive coordinator who the Colts planned to fire in 2022.

That was three seasons ago now. Poles was given a choice of former NFL coach Jim Caldwell, former Falcons head coach Dan Quinn and inexperienced Eberflus by the committee that hired him, one led by George McCaskey and former NFL executive Bill Polian. It was widely reported at the time how the Bears committee went through a long list of candidates' interviews before hiring Poles and then letting him choose Eberflus on his own.

It definitely had to influence his decision-making that he and Eberflus knew each other and shared the same agent, former Bears defensive end Trace Armstrong.

It was widely known this wasn't a case like with former GM Ryan Pace, an inexperienced executive who ownership forced into a pairing with experienced coach John Fox.

Eberflus was hired even though his effective defenses always had a fatal flaw of surrendering late leads.

It should have been expected when they couldn't protect leads late against Denver, Detroit and Cleveland in 2023. Then they got back from London and a bye, the Hail Mary pass occurred after Eberflus' late-game mismanagement of the situation. The losses on a blocked kick to the Packers, in overtime to the Vikings following a frantic Bears rally and then on Thanksgiving at Detroit with the clock expiring while Eberflus had a timeout left capped off a comedy of incompetence.

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Wiederer's article reported how the Bears never really warmed to Eberflus' leadership attempts. This isn't surprising considering his whole coaching regime was built on a silly acronym, the HITS principle. Players had problems with his management of the locker room from the very first season but it continued.

2. The Rookie QB

Caleb Williams shows signs of advancing, but with a faltering running game, his own inexperience and two receivers new to the offense, he was in no position immediately to flourish like Jayden Daniels did in Washington. But Daniels also has an offensive line ranked No. 1 in run block win rate by ESPN, seventh in pass block win rate and seventh as an overall group by Pro Football Focus' grades. He can have that confidence to step up in the pocket and not be sacked 56 times. Williams would benefit greatly with a productive running game and a line opening the way for it. Instead he has a running game that failed to hit 79 yards rushing five of the last six games.

Then there is the matter of his own poor numbers when facing pressure. That's on him and Poles. They saw how he fared when facing pressure in college. He frantically ran out of the pocket or threw interceptions against Notre Dame. 

He is 27th among starting QBs in passer rating under pressure according to PFF grades.

If they're going to expect improvement from Williams, he's going to need time to throw and time on task. Most rookie QBs don't come in built to immediately succeed in an NFL offense. 

Poles always said there is a rookie factor to take into account with quarterbacks. So did Eberflus, but it doesn't appear they actually did take it into account with the way they failed to complement their hotshot passer in so many ways beyond going out and trading for Keenan Allen or drafting Rome Odunze.


3. Shane Waldron

Eberflus' long list of interviews for a coordinator to replace fired Luke Getsy finished with Shane Waldron leading a Sean McVay style of attack. His offense never resembled the efficiency of the Rams system, with all the repeated presnap penalties and failures on early downs to start games.

Apparently there were real difficulties with Waldron in relation to his work with Williams beyond just his own play calling at the start of games, which has led to opponents leading first in 12 out of 13 games.

What it exactly was never was made clear by Poles when he alluded to it at the post-firing press conference, but it sounded like someone who didn't know how to communicate with an inexperienced, rookie QB.

"With Shane (Waldron), there was some communication that probably didn’t happen as clean as it needed to be," Poles explained. "We just got off to a tough start.

"It's always difficult when you have a young quarterback. We built this to have support around Caleb. When you have that blend of young rookie quarterback with experienced players, to make that all work is a difficult task. I think there was a little bit of a struggle just getting that going."

Waldron wasn't a coordinator with experience developing a successful young NFL quarterback. So, making him the coordinator was immediately an error by Eberflus.

Then a frustrated Waldron began making strange calls, like the goal-line option pitch to the wide side of the field against the Colts on fourth-and-inches or the fumbled handoff against Washington at the goal line to Kramer, a center turned fullback.

When the constipated offense couldn't score a touchdown in 10 straight quarters it was way past time to let Brown be OC.

4. Defensive Tackle Time Gap

The Bears think they have something in Gervon Dexter and he'll develop into a dominant 3-technique. The problem is, it most often requires multiple years at this position to play it effectively in the NFL unless the talent is entirely generational, like in Jalen Carter's case.

Poles passed on Carter to draft tackle Darnell Wright and also to avoid potential danger from a player with the red flag of drag racing charges in a fatal crash. Who knows if they were right, if Carter might have turned out poorly in Chicago's locker room mix? But he sure looks good with the second-seeded Eagles.

Dexter has the tools but isn't there yet. Obviously Zacch Pickens isn't because he's behind Dexter.

The Bears still had the No. 1 defense against the run last year and the DT combo of Andrew Billings and Justin Jones made it possible. No. 1 against the run makes your pass rush so much more effective.

Yet, they misjudged where Dexter was in relation to what they would have been getting from Jones if they paid him more than the $10 million a year Arizona did in free agency. Jones got injured in Arizona and didn't play much, so his 2024 is a wash.

Wouldn't it have made sense to keep the No. 1 rushing defense intact? Jones might not have been a devastating pass rusher but he did make tackles for loss as 3-technique and Dexter isn't doing this yet at this point in his career.

Instead, the ramifications are far-reaching. They've gone from first to 26th in run defense, 28th in yards allowed per carry.

The carry-over from this was apparent when defensive coordinator Eric Washington this week assessed the Vikings' high-powered attack by saying "...we have to address those starting with making sure that we make this team one-dimensional."

Make a team one-dimensional by taking away the run and then it's easier to rush the passer. The Bears are having trouble doing that now.

Poles paid out much less for a contract extension to Billings than he would have had to pay Jones, who had 22 tackles for loss the last two years. Dexter has four TFLs this year.

Poles and Eberflus gambled Dexter would be ready to step up into the most vital position in the Eberflus defensive scheme and lost.
Dexter does have five sacks, but is still learning to stop the run and for this year the gamble failed.

5. Second Edge Pass Rusher

They wanted to avoid getting Montez Sweat ganged up on in the pass rush. They haven't done it.

Poles didn't get a trade done for Matt Judon and maybe he got a break because Judon has only 3 1/2 sacks for Atlanta. But if it wasn't going to be Judon, then Darrell Taylor? His two Bears sacks came way back in the season opener.

DeMarcus Walker has 3 1/2 sacks, just one less than Sweat. Jake Martin has three. Overall they have as many sacks as they had all last season right now with 30, but much more was expected with Sweat on their line for a full season.

Spending for a bigger impact edge didn't have to mean bringing in the biggest free agent edge on the market but their solution was bargain basement shopping and they got bargain basement material.

And they got more double-teaming for Sweat.

6. Constant Changing of the Guards

The big mistake came two years ago when they signed Nate Davis, long since released.

In his story, Wiederer's sources had plenty to say about about Davis' reputation for taking it easy and how it apparently was ignored or undetected by Poles. So they needed an alternative at guard this year because they found they couldn't count on him last year when they paid him $30 million.

It was another case where Poles didn't do his homework, like apparently when he hired Eberflus and when he tried to sign injured Larry Ogunjobi free agency.

Trading for Ryan Bates made sense as either a center or guard but then Bates got injured immediately.

Teven Jenkins' usual assorted injuries entered into it and the Bears were left relying all year on Matt Pryor, a player who was probably a fourth guard and third tackle, a marginal roster guy. He has proven effective enough when counted on but he's still not Jenkins or even Davis when he was healthy and interested.

They even had to use Kramer, a center, as a guard, that is, when he wasn't being asked to be Rick Casares.

7. Misjudging the Running Game

This occurred in a few ways, but the major one was how they overrated their run blocking on the offensive line and then failed to comprehend the extent they had completely destroyed their running game from the 2022-23 seasons.

The Bears never were as good as first or second in rushing, like they ranked the previous two years. It was a wide-zone style blocking scheme and an attack built off Justin Fields' running. So the backs became the counterthreats when defenses schemed to stop Fields' explosiveness. They had an extra breakaway threat as a runner on every down. Poles removed this by trading Fields.

Even if they were right in assessing Fields' ability to be a winning NFL passer when deciding they needed to draft Caleb Williams, the new dynamic was their line had to be effective blocking the run the way most NFL lines do, without the extra threat of a breakaway runner occupying defenses' attention.

The best and quickest way to fix this would have been to sign Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs or even Aaron Jones in free agency.

Fast, physical and explosive trumps fast, and that is what they got in D'Andre Swift at a bargain rate of $8 million a year.

The danger of a really dynamic every down type would have made up for losing Fields' threat but they got a back who would have been ideal to team in a 50-50 carries split with a physical type of ball carrier. Their physical threat, Roschon Johnson, has never proven he is a starter or dependable enough to share in a 50-50 split for carries . He hasn't even been healthy much of the time. When he has been healthy, he has basically been a short-yardage back and occasionally a third-down type.

The Lions have the speed back in Jahmyr Gibbs but also the power back in David Montgomery. The Bears have a speed back but no No. 1 with speed, power and explosiveness.

Poles needed the heavy hitter, not the base stealer/singles hitter/glove man.

He needed Barkley. They need to draft a back again.

Maybe they can use that highly coveted seventh-round pick they got for Khalil Herbert to help get one. Remember Herbert, the back with a 4.8-yard career rushing average? He could have helped when all of the running backs came up injured the last few weeks but was sent to Cincinnati.

But by then, though, the 2024 Bears were already on a path to nowhere.

Twitter: BearsOnSI

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.