When to expect an end to lengthy Chicago Bears hiring process
If this Bears coach hiring process seems to have the potential to go on forever, with the potential to run on past forever, there's a good reason.
People tend to panic once someone hires a coach because usually the dominoes start to fall at that point.
When the New England Patriots reached agreement Sunday with Mike Vrabel, it was easy for fans to look at the Bears' lengthy list of possibly 18 to 20 coaching candidates for interviews, with about half of them still to come, and then imitate Ted Knight in Caddyshack: "Well ... we're waiting."
The waiting has only just begun, based on what normally happens in the NFL each year.
First, no one should pay attention to the Patriots' early hiring beyond knowing they now have the theoretical advantage of being able to hire a staff before anyone else can. It might not mean much as the names being floated around all sound like they'll bring the old Bill Belichick band back together. In other words, Josh McDaniels, Matt Patricia, and could Charlie Weis come out of retirement?
The Patriots love to rush into things. This time they think they have it solved with the first hiring on Jan. 12. Only six days had passed since their last game. However, they hired Jerod Mayo on Jan. 12 last year and that was five days after their season ended. He lasted a year.
In this decade there have been 35 head coaches hired in the NFL, not including interims.
Toss out Todd Bowles in Tampa Bay because his hiring was an appointment after Bruce Arians retired at the end of March. The average date of hire for those 34 other coaches was Jan. 24.
This should be a Bears target date.
Teams on average in these past five years have hired a coach 19.5 days after their last game and Jan. 24 is 19 days after the Bears season ended. The NFL season ended Dec. 29 in 2019, Jan. 3 in 2020, Jan. 9 in 2021, Jan.8 in 2022 and Jan. 7 in 2023.
With only a little over half the reported interviews complete and then second interviews to come, it would seem all but impossible for the Bears to hit the Jan. 24 target. But it's not necessarily unusual. It's interesting to note how teams in the offseason before 2020 and before 2021 took 13 days after the season to hire head coaches. The process since then has become far more elongated.
With the number of Bears candidates, the multitude of people involved in the interviews and taking into account the input all of these people involved, the time for processing must be greater. While the process continues, more good assistants could then be out of reach for the new Bears coach.
Matt Eberflus' hiring date was Jan. 27 but they also had to come up with the GM just before that and also, that was only 18 days after the Jan. 9 end to the season. Other Bears hires were faster. By this date in 2018 (Jan. 14), Matt Nagy had already been hired for six days.
John Fox and Marc Trestman were hired on Jan. 16, Trestman 17 days after the season but Fox 19 days after it because they were also hiring Ryan Pace. Lovie Smith was hired on Jan. 15, 19 days after the year.
There's no way the Bears are hitting those dates with this hire. They might hit Jan. 27 depending on which teams win in the playoffs this week or if they become enamored with one of the original candidates not in the playoffs.
The involvement in this search of Detroit's Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, as well as Buffalo's Joe Brady, Washington's Kliff Kingsbury and Baltimore's Todd Monken as candidates can force this process out later because the Super Bowl is Feb. 9.
For Bears fans' information, the Super Bowl is that big game they play at the end of the season.
The rules for hiring and interviewing have changed. When the Bears hired Dave Wannstedt, they did it 12 days before Wanny coached in the Super Bowl and the Cowboys beat Buffalo 52-17. They thought waiting for a Super Bowl coach was worthwhile and six years with one playoff berth says it wasn't in this case.
Imagine waiting out this entire process now past the Super Bowl on Feb. 9 for a hiring, because that could be what happens.
It had better be worth the wait.
Another stat for Bears fans to ponder: Of the 36 coaches hired this decade counting the Mike Vrabel hire by the Patriots, exactly half have already been fired.
Coach Hiring Dates
Since 2020
2024
Raheem Morris, Atlanta, Jan. 25
Jim Harbaugh, L.A. Chargers, Jan. 24
Mike Macdonald, Seattle, Jan. 31
Dave Canales, Carolina, Jan. 25
Jerod Mayo, New England, Jan. 12
Brian Callahan, Tennessee, Jan. 22
Dan Quinn, Washington, Feb. 1
Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas, Jan. 19
2023
Sean Payton, Denver, Feb. 3
Frank Reich, Carolina, Jan. 26
Shane Steichen, Indianapolis, Feb. 14
Demeco Ryans, Houston, Jan. 31
Jonathan Gannon, Arizona, Feb. 14
2022
Mike McDaniel, Miami, Feb. 6
Kevin O'Connell, Minnesota, Feb. 16
Brian Daboll, N.Y. Giants, Jan. 28
Doug Pederson, Jacksonville, Feb. 3
Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay, March 30
Josh McDaniels, Las Vegas, Jan. 31
Matt Eberflus, BEARS, Jan. 27
Dennis Allen, New Orleans, Feb. 7
Lovie Smith, Houston, Feb. 7
Nathaniel Hackett, Denver, Jan. 27
2021
David Culley, Houston, Jan. 29
Brandon Staley, L.A. Chargers, Jan. 17
Urban Meyer, Jacksonville, Jan. 14
Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia, Jan. 24
Dan Campbell, Detroit, Jan. 20
Arthur Smith, Tennesee, Jan. 16
Robert Saleh, N.Y. Jets, Jan. 14
2020
Joe Judge, N.Y. Giants, Jan. 8
Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland, Jan. 13
Matt Rhule, Carolina, Jan. 7
Ron Rivera, Washington, Jan. 1
Mike McCarthy, Dallas, Jan. 7
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