Bear Digest

Where Analytics Have Begun Favoring Caleb Williams' Efforts

It took a while but Caleb Williams' numbers have turned in an analytical sense since the hot streak currently enjoyed by the Bears QB began four games ago.

Gene Chamberlain

Caleb Williams is interviewed by NFL Network's Stacey Dales coming off the field at the 35-16 Bears win in London.
Caleb Williams is interviewed by NFL Network's Stacey Dales coming off the field at the 35-16 Bears win in London. / Peter van den Berg-Imagn Images
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Now it seems even the analytics are turning in Caleb Williams' favor, after a rough start.

According to NFL NextGen Stats, Williams is avoiding a rookie tendency to check it down too much, even though he obviously has become more aware of the need to do this over the weeks.

Williams is maintaining a strong average intended air yards of 7.7, which ranks 14th in the league. Rookies who become overly cautious after some interceptions tend to rank poorly at this and the offense can bog down into a short passing attack.

At the same time, Williams is not throwing it recklessly. NextGen's aggressiveness ratio measures the percentage of times a QB throws into coverage with a defender within a yard or less of the receiver, and Williams has the sixth-lowest percentage at 10.6% He's in good company here as Patrick Mahomes leads the league at 7%, Lamar Jackson is second (8.1%), Trevor Lawrence fourth (10.4%%) and Jared Goff is one spot below Williams at 10.9%.

In terms of expected points added, another favorite metric, Williams has been drastically better over the last four games. Fantasy football writer Marv Elequin has him fifth in expected points added and seventh in percentage rate with positive EPA during that stretch of games, when Williams has obviously improved.

Based on statistics from from Pro.NFL.Com, CHGO's Nick Moreano sees Williams doing things other Bears QBs of recent vintage have failed at miserably and that's throw over the middle. Justin Fields and Mitchell Trubisky struggled with this, anyway.

The site tracks types of routes and completions. On in-breaking routes like posts, crosses, and slants. The site says Williams has 506 passing yards, three touchdowns and 29.4 EPA on those types of routes which is third most in the NFL. They also say he has averaged 10.8 yards per attempt on in-breaking targets, the most by a rookie QB since 2018.

Where Williams is going next with his game is the question everyone would like to know. Considering how he seemingly adds something each week, the good bet is deep throws and completions, in particular to Rome Odunze.

In an article grading all the NFC teams performances to date, analyst Tyler Brooke of The 33rd Team calls it "scary for opponents," because Williams has accomplished what he has yet is still to execute in his greatest strength from college football. That is the deep pass.

"After dominating throws 20-plus yards downfield in college, according to (Pro Football Focus), Williams has just a 44.1 passer rating on the deep ball, completing 22.2 percent of his passes with four interceptions," Brooke wrote.

Williams and Odunze flashed on one deep connection against the Colts in Week 3 but it's been mostly short or intermediate plays so far for them. PFF has Odunze graded above only nine other rookie first-round picks this year despite being drafted ninth overall, and he has 17 catches for 246 yards in 31 targets.

The 14.5-yard average is healthy but Odunze looks capable of much more. Slow-going in stats for Odunze at some points seemed almost a natural as Williams has so many options in the offense and has tended in college to distribute the ball to numerous receivers instead of one or two.

Twitter: BearsOnSI

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.