Bear Digest

Where Caleb Williams Ranks Against NFL Starters and Rookies

The Bears QB earns plenty of respect from Pro Football Focus' starting quarterback rankings and also from projections with other sites against his peers in the draft class.

Gene Chamberlain

The QB ranking process continues and it's apparent Caleb Williams is not regarded as a college fluke or NFL bust.
The QB ranking process continues and it's apparent Caleb Williams is not regarded as a college fluke or NFL bust. / David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
In this story:

NFL quarterback rankings normally place an emphasis on experience.

It's unusual for rookie QBs to come in anywhere in the top 25 when they have yet to throw a pass.

For instance, Chris Simms has begun his annual QB ranking countdown, with Bo Nix and Michael Penix failing to crack the top 31. Where Caleb Williams falls in his rankings has yet to be revealed but hd did have Simms ranked No. 1 in his draft class.

Another annual ranking is out and it's the Pro Football Focus starting quarterback ranking. Last year they ranked Justin Fields 18th and Jordan Love 26th. Enough said about that one.

HOW BEARS ROSTER RATES IN THE NEED FOR SPEED

HIGH BEARS OFFENSIVE LINE RANKING COMES WITH A PROBLEM

Although Williams hasn't played yet, he cracks not only the top 25 but the top 20. Trevor Sikkema of PFF ranks Williams No. 19 among all starters.

None of the other QBs in this year's draft class are higher than Jayden Daniels at 27th.

"I'm opening myself up to some criticism here, as Williams has yet to play a single down of NFL football," Sikkema admits. "But I'm a draft guy, so to watch Williams at USC and scout what I think he is capable of in the NFL and rank him below guys I think he's better thanβ€”even in 2024β€”would be disingenuous."

Sikkema admits to concerns about last year's attempt at "hero ball" while playing for USC with a weaker lineup.

"The big question for him is whether all the Superman plays at USC were out of desperation or if that is his identity," Sikkema wrote. "If it was out of desperation and he can be comfortable playing in structure, he could be in for a big year."

Williams is ranked one ahead of Baker Mayfield, two ahead of Derek Carr and three ahead of Russell Wilson. He's one behind the quarterback who his new offensive coordinator resurrected in Seattle, Geno Smith. Jared Goff is 16th and Love 11th.

Simms' ranking countdown will be closely watched in coming days. He should be closing in on where Williams is rated.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-quarterback-rankings-all-32-starters-2024-nfl-season

Two other posts look at the rookie quarterback class and project their seasons.

ESPN's Mike Clay forecasts Williams will produce the most passing yards and the most passing touchdowns of the rookie class, with 3,532 yards and 23 TDS.

RANKING THE BEST OFFSEASON BEARS PRACTICE BATTLES

TROUBLE FOR THE VIKINGS?

"This is a bit of an unusual class in that the supporting cast/scheme around a few of these QBs provides optimism that they can produce at a higher statistical level than a typical rookie," Clay wrote. "That group includes Williams and McCarthy, who will benefit from excellent offensive playmakers around them in Chicago and Minnesota, respectively, as well as Daniels, who gets a boost from Kliff Kingsbury's fast-paced scheme in Washington."

Clay has McCarthy within 5 yards of Williams, but four TD pases short. He has Daniels at 3,457 yards and 16 TDs.

CBS Sports' Chris Trapasso has a similar concept with best-case and worst-case projections for rookie QBs. His best case for Caleb Williams is 3,750 yards, 65% completions, 25 TD passes, five INTs and a 100.00 rating. His worst-case is 3,300 yards, 17 TD passes, 13 INTS and an 82.5 rating with 60% completions.

Trapasso has Williams' best-case efforts lower than Jayden Daniels' and worst case higher than Daniels' totals, but explains it in a way that reflects the team situation and not the individual talent.

Basically, Williams shouldn't need to pass as much.

"I don't feel way out on a limb suggesting the Bears defense to be ahead of the Commanders, which should lead to more pass attempts for Daniels in a few more come-from-behind situations than Williams," Trapasso wrote. "So his (Daniels) projections were based on 550 attempts as a rookie."

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.