Bear Digest

Where Chicago Bears GM Ryan Poles Took His Biggest Gambles

Known for the percentage play, Chicago Bears GM Ryan Poles appears to have taken uncharacteristic risks in three situations for this year's team.

Gene Chamberlain

Ryan Poles addresses changes in the team. The Bears GM appears to have based continued team improvement on three gambles.
Ryan Poles addresses changes in the team. The Bears GM appears to have based continued team improvement on three gambles. / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
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It's easy to look at Bears GM Ryan Poles and think of him as the guy who likes a safe play.

He's not a reckless gambler, out looking to hit it big with a risky player. He'll hedge his bets.

There are numerous examples of this.

One example of playing it safe was the Jalen Carter situation, when the Bears traded back and didn't take the best defensive tackle in the draft at a need position because of the drag racing situation and his lack of commitment shown at times leading up to the draft.

Taking a gamble this year would have been sticking with Justin Fields. Instead, Poles opted for Caleb Williams, the rookie quarterback with the flashy passing statistics who had been dubbed the best QB in that draft for two years. That's safter than counting on a quarterback who three times had failed to throw for more than 2,562 yards in a season.

Last year Poles could have drafted Bryce Young No. 1 but he'd seen Fields at least flash some ability. Taking DJ Moore, two first-round picks and two second-round picks was a much safer play than selecting the 5-foot-10 Alabama passer.

Some might interpret signing Kevin Byard at safety this year to replace Eddie Jackson as a risk, but Jackson's play level declined significantly last year from the previous season while Byard remains viable enough at 31 years old that Pro Football Focus rated him as the NFL's 12th best safety heading into this season. He's going to be part of a secondary that plays mostly zone and started to click last year. So this seems like only a mild risk, if any.

Poles did take three big gambles with this roster, though, and here they are:

3. No Established Defensive End Addition

They're relying on DeMarcus Walker to improve and one of their two young defensive ends, either Dominique Robinson or rookie Austin Booker, to provide relief in their rush rotation.

The reason this doesn't rank as a higher risk is they really lost nothing at defensive end since last year and that group was sufficient for helping Montez Sweat off the other side once he arrived.

Walker's contribution last year is greatly underrated, possibly because Pro Football Focus gave him such a low grade at 84th of 112 edge players. They ranked him low as a run defender but the Bears were No. 1 against the run after being 31st the previous year. This upgrade didn't happen by accident and it sure didn't happen because Yannick Ngakoue stopped the run. Walker was a huge step up as a run defender over Ngakoue, Robinson and Robert Quinn. His pass rush was underrated by PFF, as well. He had 12 of his career-high 22 pressures in the final seven games after the arrival of Sweat. He had eight of his 22 pressures in the final four games, once they had lost Ngakoue for the season.

So they have one veteran answer. The fact they still could bring in another veteran edge makes this less of a gamble at this time. This could change if opening day arrives and they're stil actively looking for defensive end help.

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2. Quarterback

It's always a gamble going with a rookie quarterback, even the No. 1 pick in the draft. But it's never going to be perfect with a rookie at any position. Actually, this isn't a gamble as much as it is simply taking your lumps until the rookie QB develops.

In another sense, it wasn't a gamble at all considering how little they actually got from Fields as a passer over three seasons. The telltale sign was how few passes they threw in three years. It was the lowest amount in the league. His legs were a more dependable weapon and shouldn't be. His arm is supposed to be and it wasn't when he had a career-high of 2,562 passing yards, 10-28 starting record and 60.3% career completion percentage.

No. The greatest gamble Poles has made on offense this year is not backing up Williams with a proven veteran quarterback. You don't need a Mike Glennon or Andy Dalton to start in the rookie's place at first, but you need someone with solid experience in case something happens.

Tyson Bagent's five games played do not constitute a solid background. Brett Rypien's journey around NFL practice squads doesn't either. When your team is relying on the "Wunderkind" passer, especially one who is mobile and takes risks like Williams, when your offense is well-armed and your defense is ready to win now, you must have a veteran QB who has started a good number of games or has proven over time he can step in at a moment's notice to be starter if something happens.

Bagent's two career wins as a starter four times isn't exactly like when the Bears had Jay Cutler go down and could count on Josh McCown.

Many teams take this kind of risk. The Packers did it last year and are doing it again.

It is truly a roll of the dice.

1. DT Gervon Dexter

Nothing has changed personnel-wise on the Bears defense since last year other than two positions.

Byard and, as discussed, might be an actual safety improvement rather than a swap-out. The only real change is where defensive tackle Justin Jones has left and a second-year defensive tackle is entrusted with a position Bears coach Matt Eberflus often calls the key to his defensive scheme.

Jones wasn't a top defensive tackle, but it's difficult to look at his 22 tackles for loss over two years and last year's 4 1/2 sacks and dismiss it as a poor effort in the way PFF has with their grades. Jones had a vital role and the Bears now must count on the players who didn't dislodge him from a starting role last year as rookies.

Zacch Pickens showed very little. Gervon Dexter is their great hope as a taller tackle with explosiveness. They see him as a young version of DeForest Buckner.

Dexter was productive for his limited snaps but not quite at the rate of Jones. The Bears need Jones' productivity as a baseline to continue the progress they showed as a defense over the final eight games.

Whether they can get it is a huge question. Even the best defensive tackles do not usually develop until Year 3 or later.

The first big year for some of the PFF's highest-rated defensive tackles, and big years were not always reflected by their sack totals:

  • Daron Payne, Year 4
  • Christian Barmore, Year 3
  • DeForest Buckner, Year 3
  • Jonathan Allen, Year 2
  • Quinnnen Williams, Year 2
  • Javon Hargrave, Year 3
  • Jeffery Simmons, Year 3
  • Derrick Brown, Year 4
  • Dexter Lawrence, Year 2
  • Alim McNeil, Year 3
  • David Onyemata, Year 3

Defensive tackles who flourish immediately, like the Rams' Aaron Donald or Kobie Turner, are rare. The third year is usually a big point for this position and Dexter will be counted on to perform like a veteran even though he hasn't done enough to this point to indicate he can.

The goal is clear for this defense.

"Be dominant," middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds said. "We was dominant at times but I'm talking about from start to finish.

"Obviously, coming off ... just getting to a hot start, you know, starting fast and, you know, not waiting."

Starting fast can't be easy with an unproven factor at their key defensive position.

Considering their defense was built on the back of a strong run defense, and what little pass rush they did muster was the result of stopping the run first, this is indeed a huge gamble on the part of Poles.

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Gene Chamberlain

GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.