Where Ryan Poles' Master Plan Sits and Still Must Take Shape

Analysis: The Bears GM spent a lot of money and draft picks to build a 4-9 team and where they're headed in with personnel matters seems to be anyone's guess.

Ryan Poles and team president Kevin Warren at the press conference to annouce Matt Eberflus' firing. / Photo: Chicago Bears Video

Once again, the Bears are mis-aligned.

They've been like an old car with bad suspension. One bump on the road and they're out of alignment. It doesn't take much to get them out of whack.

They take the quarterback, then fire the coaching staff. They repeated the process and they're repeating it again. They hired a GM and made him keep the coach before firing him. Then they let a new GM fire the successful coach and bring in one who can't get it done. They fire both so they would appear aligned. But the quarterback is still left from another coach and GM so they get rid of him, then fire the coach and everything repeats.

It's a chaotic cycle of mistakes, each perpetuating defeat in so many ways.

Now they have GM Ryan Poles and have a president in charge in Kevin Warren who, it appears, has given his GM a chance to move forward into the final year of his deal, with a pat on the back, a very firm hand on the shoulder and no contract extension.

Congrats on all the support.

Whether Poles is GM after the 2025 draft and on into or after the 2025 season seems to be anyone's guess.

It would be easy to see why the decision could go either way.

Poles' entire plan needs time to succeed. Will they give it to him?

Poles' Mixed Results

Poles made positive trades, such as the classic one with Carolina to bring in DJ Moore and picks so they could draft Darnell Wright, Caleb Williams and Tyrique Stevenson. They still have a pick left to redeem from that one during this draft.

He has made some nice picks in the draft like Wright or Kyler Gordon, Jaquan Brisker and Braxton Jones. He also has failed in the draft with Velus Jones Jr., the lack of any proven edge pass rusher and one major general flaw.

Poles' picks have not become instant successes. He hasn't drafted immediate superstars and has spent a lot of picks and cash on so-so talent. As a result, they've had to find their stars in other ways or fill in with mediocre talent until the perceived talented picks develop.

In many cases, they're still waiting.

The Personnel Plan

Poles' intended use of free agency has been mostly for one- or two-year gap starters until the younger draft picks can take over the starting position. This was especially understandable in Year 1, when they had almost no salary cap space and could afford only low-budget free agents.

Since then they've added a few big-ticket free agents like T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds but at other spots continue filling in with backup type help until draft picks eventually take over.

Here is where Poles' starters have been acquired:

Inherited Starters

CB Jaylon Johnson, TE Cole Kmet, G Teven Jenkins*

Poles-Drafted Starters

T Braxton Jones, T Darnell Wright, QB Caleb Williams, WR Rome Odunze, DT Gervon Dexter, CB Kyler Gordon, CB Tyrique Stevenson, S Jaquan Brisker. 

Undrafted Free Agent Starters

LB Jack Sanborn

Starters Acquired in Trades

WR Keenan Allen, DE Montez Sweat, DJ Moore.

Starters Signed in Free Agency

RB D'Andre Swift, LB Tremaine Edmunds, LB T.J. Edwards, G Nate Davis*

*Released after three-year, $30 million deal, replaced by free agent Matt Pryor

Should a team have to rely on three starters acquired in trades as stars? Should a GM be relying on three players left over from the previous regime to lead the way in his third year? Shouldn't some of his players drafted be doing it by then? And shouldn't there be a few more starters through free agency considering how much the Bears had to spend the last two years?

No one could call Wright a star yet because he's in his second year but he appears to be trending this way. Gordon and Brisker looked like they could do it but Brisker his a real injury issue now and Gordon hasn't quite made enough plays against good teams. Odunze should become a star but is far from yet at this point. Williams should be the star of stars as the first pick in the draft.

The easy immediate solution to all of this is drafting better.

To be fair, Poles didn't have a first-round pick in Year 1 because Ryan Pace traded it away. He did have two second-rounders. Eventual or immediate starters should come from the third round and didn't.

The Plight

Even at a lesser level, they seem to be failing. In drafting players, the hope is to find role players as depth contributors or situational players.

The Bears look like a team full of average talent in a division that requires excellence. They picked edge rushers Dominique Robinson and Austin Booker in Round 5. Neither has made a fast impact. In Robinson's case, it's been three years without making one. There's still hope for Booker.

Meanwhile, the Packers pick rusher Kingsley Enagbare in the same round the Bears got Robinson, during 2022 and he produced two sacks Sunday night against Seattle and has 4 1/2 on the year, which is more than Booker and Robinson for their full careers combined. The young Packers pass rusher seems to be taking a step forward and, at worst, is a valued role player in Year 3.

The Waste

In 2023 Poles had $94.434 million in salary cap space to start the offseason according to Spotrac.com, the most in the NFL. They spent down to about $5 million.

In 2024, Spotrac said they had $75.6 million, a figure then reduced greatly by Moore's contract extension, but still over $50 million. They also created more cap space by cutting Eddie Jackson and Cody Whitehair.

For all of those millions of dollars, these are the free agents they brought to Chicago.

2022

S Dane Cruikshank

DT Justin Jones

QB Trevor Siemian

WR Byron Pringle

WR Equanimeous St. Brown

DE Al-Quadin Muhammad

LB Nick Morrow

C/G Lucas Patrick

G/T Dakota Dozier

FB Khari Blasingame

2023

RB D'Onta Foreman

LB Dylan Cole

TE Robert Tonyan

DT Andrew Billings

QB P.J. Walker

RB Travis Homer

DE DeMarus Walker

LB Tremaine Edmunds

G Nate Davis

LB T.J. Edwards

2024

RB D'Andre Swift

S Kevin Byard

TE Gerald Everett

C Coleman Shelton

G/C Ryan Bates

S Jonathan Owens

G Matt Pryor

T Jake Curhan

LB Amen Ogbongbemiga

The Future

Weighing those groups and the plan to use "spot" starter types until the draft picks develop, it would appear they wasted an awful lot of money on nothing.

What will happen at Halas Hall if this painful Bears losing skid ticks up to eight games, nine, 10, 11?

Is Ryan Poles’ job security truly as strong as Bears President and CEO Kevin Warren emphasized last week?

If so, should it be? And why? https://t.co/KpAEdHlNjx

— Dan Wiederer (@danwiederer) December 13, 2024

The only way it will all work is if suddenly Williams, Wright and Odunze rocket to star status to begin next season and Poles finds fabulous success in this year's draft with a player or two who walk in on Day 1 and enjoy wild immediate success.

The other ways out are hiring a brilliant head coach who saves everyone with immediate success, or all of the picks they've been waiting on to star or be role players but haven't suddenly blossom together. ... Right.

If these don't happen, it's easy to see how Warren would think they need to start searching for someone else to come in as GM the year. And if Williams hasn't shown he is undoubtedly the star for the future by 2025, does that GM then begin the cycle all over again with a new QB?

The process begins anew.

Alright everyone. Time to get Ryan Poles fired. This o line and d line is weak and has no depth. The most important position groups have been severely neglected. #Bears pic.twitter.com/Nz8KOQa34i

— ✶ (@MeanMariachi) December 8, 2024

Twitter: BearsOnSI