Bear Digest

Why Bears momentum toward Mike McCarthy could all be false

Reports about the Bears being keen on Mike McCarthy and certain to lose out on Ben Johnson to the Raiders all sounds premature considering what's still ahead.

Gene Chamberlain

With Todd Monken interviewing today and other top candidates ahead, it's unlikely the Bears can be counted out in their pursuit of Ben Johnson or anyone else.
With Todd Monken interviewing today and other top candidates ahead, it's unlikely the Bears can be counted out in their pursuit of Ben Johnson or anyone else. / Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images
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While the Mike McCarthy momentum builds for the Bears even against the wishes of many Chicago fans, there still remains reasons for skepticism.

Make no mistake: It's difficult to counter the momentum when it's as strong as it is. And it is strong.

Former Bears coach Dave Wannstedt said on Marquee Network he talked to a source who told him McCarthy is a "finalist." He also  told AM-670 it's serious about McCarthy. Some might bristle at Wannstedt's takes but he does have league and agent connections besides Jimmy Johnson. After all, Wannstedt used to coach for McCarthy's former employer, Jerry Jones.

League insiders Mike Florio, Ian Rapoport, Albert Breer and Jordan Schultz all have either come out calling Ben Johnson to be the favorite for the Raiders job or a likely favorite. Some have spelled out details at least acknowledging the factors aligning for this Raiders hire of Johnson.

Podcaster Dan Patrick said this week he has been told Johnson does not want to come to Chicago because of he'd be facing his old team twice a year.

McCarthy even has the endorsement of Aaron Rodgers to get hired this time around, and it was Rodgers who seemingly was at odds with McCarthy based on a 2019 Bleacher Report article looking at their relationship.

"Hell of a ball coach, hell of a ball coach," Rodgers said on the Pat McAfee Show. "What he did this year with the amount of injuries that they had, I thought was amazing."

There are three problems with all of this momentum and the first one is simply an age-old tactic.

1. Subterfuge

The finalist designation hasn't been made known yet but the top candidates' agents talk to ownership and particularly the top candidate. Ben Johnson's representation knows how the game is played. How does he get the cash out of the Bears that his client wants? You make the competition look like a better alternative and coax more money out of the McCaskeys, that's how. It's a cash grab set up by leaking.

ESPN's Adam Schefter, commenting on McAfee, remained adamant there is no reason to think the Raiders rate higher than the Bears.

"Why is everyone ignoring Chicago when t comes to Ben Johnson?" Schefter wondered aloud.

There have been all kinds of wild cash figures tossed about regarding a Johnson contract, all of which is guessing. But he'll get a big contract somewhere and his demands are likely to make George McCaskey's mustache hairs stand on end, especially with Matt Eberflus still getting paid.

The whole Raiders and Johnson as a favorite thing shakes down at this point looks contrived.

2. The Raiders

There is no denying the Bears are a much closer team to competing for anything than the Raiders.

The Raiders rank above the Bears, according to Pro Football Focus, for means to get better this offseason in an article about each team's assets for improving. However, they rank better by only by one place.

PFF had graded the Bears three spots higher than the 27th-ranked Raiders at season's end and the Bears are rated higher on the ESPN strength index.

More important, as bad as the McCaskeys have been at building a team, it's been based on poor decisions and not irrational kneejerk decisions like Mark Davis has had. There is plenty thought being given to the idea the Raiders will now emerge with great decision making with Tom Brady on board and with an infusion of investment banker cash resulting from the sale of part of the Raider shares, but in the end it's Davis with the big share of the stock and the one who has proven he makes irrational, rapid and incorrect decisions.

The Bears actually have put the fate of their franchise in other decision makers' hands. The Raiders paint a good picture like they have but really haven't.

3. The Interviews

It's unlikely the Bears have immediately made McCarthy a favorite for the job when there are still highly respect coaches to interview.

Brian Flores is reportedly being interviewed Saturday and he has connections through the Vikings to Kevin Warren. In fact, Warren was spending a lot of time in the Vikings' locker room after Minnesota's win at Soldier Field. Flores has head coaching experience, too.

If anyone has done as much offensively as Johnson, it's Buffalo's Joe Brady and Baltimore's Todd Monken. The Bears still are interviewing Monken Friday and Brady at some point very soon. Kliff Kingsbury has said he won't interview until after the Washington season ends and Kingsbury has to be taken seriously because of Jayden Daniels' success, his past relationship with Caleb Williams, his own experience a head coach and Washington's success.

Brady has a reported past relationship with Caleb Williams and so does Kingsbury.

With all of that to come, decision makers are unlikely to be thinking of McCarthy as a lock just yet.

4. Games Left

What happens if Detroit comes out of its bye week, lays flatter than a board and the surging Commanders with an impressive Dan Quinn defense walks all over Johnson's team? It doesn't seem likely but it's yet to play out.

The same is true with the Bills-Ravens games and dueling Bears job candidates at offensive coordinator.

These games this weekend can still make a difference in how candidates are perceived.

It's a playoff weekend of Bears potential head coaches facing off: Brady/Monken and Johnson/Kingsbury.

Brady already outscored Johnson in a regular-season game. Can he do it against Monken's team in the playoffs? It's going to take more than a Hail Mary to rescure Kingsbury against the Lions. Can he summon up what's required?

Let the best Bears job candidates win.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.