Bear Digest

Why Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze Projections Mean Trouble

Analysis: Bears mock drafts for Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze take them down slippery slope to struggling pass rush.

Gene Chamberlain

Caleb Williams would join Rome Odunze in Chicago on draft day in many mocks but the lean to offense would cause a big Bears problem.
Caleb Williams would join Rome Odunze in Chicago on draft day in many mocks but the lean to offense would cause a big Bears problem. / Jessica Alcheh-USA TODAY Sports
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It's almost as if mock drafts ignore the trend, or maybe they're seeing it as a way to reverse it.

For the third straight season, scoring in the NFL declined.

Yet, mock drafts and other projections put the Bears on the path toward players on offense.

Teams scored on average 21.8 points last year, down from 21.9 in 2022 and 23.0 in 2021. In fact, the only time it has gone up since 2018 is 2020 when offenses had the benefit of operating without crowd noise due to the pandemic.

Yet here were Mel Kiper and Field Yates of ESPN on Monday releasing their combo three-round "alternate shot" NFL draft, and in it they gave the Bears an offensive player with every pick.

At least they were consistent. Quarterback Caleb Williams at No. 1 and wide receiver Rome Odunze at No. 9 have been the choices for Kiper in his individual mock drafts and remained so on this three-round combo mock. Kiper made both of those choices.

The interesting pick came at No. 75, where the Bears took Yale offensive tackle Kiran Amegadjie, a Hinsdale Central High graduate who needed only take a local visit to Halas Hall earlier rather than top 30 trip.

It's not inconceivable the Bears would take a tackle in or after Round 1, especially someone they could convert to guard because their player participation at that position was a problem last year. However, to take offense with three straight picks when they lack a pass rusher off the right edge and have no 3-technique with proven run defense/pass rush capability would be total negligence.

None of this is out of the realm of possibility, either, and CBS' Monday mock draft shows this. It's not simply because the two players Jared Dubin projects going to the Bears are the same two Kiper and Yates have said for ESPN.

With such a heavy emphasis on offense in any draft, wouldn't the teams who pick defense first be getting a huge advantage? After all, they'll be getting their choice of the top players on that side of the ball.

If you're being honest and drafting according to a draft board rather than reaching for need, it would seem the best Bears pick at No. 9 needs to be on defense even if Atlanta does as all of these analysts project and takes Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner at No. 8, just ahead of the Bears' selection of Odunze.

The mock draft emphasis on offense gets out of hand with Pro Football Focus' latest mock, a two-round projection done by Sam Monson. He has them moving back two spots and only getting the 108th pick, a fourth-rounder, from Minnesota.

Then, after moving back two spots, who do they land?

Odunze, of course.

Williams and Odunze, Williams and Odunze, Williams and Odunze. What about defense?

"Chicago would have taken Odunze at No. 9 overall had the Vikings not come calling about a trade," Monson wrote. "Here, they get him two picks later and add extra draft capital from a division rival. Caleb Williams now has an embarrassment of riches to throw to."

But the Bears have an embarrassment with their pass rush, which still finished next to last even with Montez Sweat playing for half the season.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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