Bear Digest

Why Caleb Williams Could Rate as a Homecoming Fantasy Play

Bears Fantasy and NFL Picks: Returning to his native Washington DC area, Caleb Williams is riding a hot streak and there are questions whether the Commanders can stop it.

Gene Chamberlain

Caleb Williams looks like a better fantasy play going against Washington's defense than who ever Washington has at QB.
Caleb Williams looks like a better fantasy play going against Washington's defense than who ever Washington has at QB. / Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images

The fantasy football matchup of the year for rookies finally arrives and what happens?

No one can be certain whether Jayden Daniels plays for the Commanders against the Bears or not.

The uncertainty aside, fantasy owners accustomed to starting the Commanders' QB in their lineups might need to look at their bench this week anyway.

Daniels hasn't faced a pass defense quite like this Bears pass defense. He did face the Ravens but that's an entirely different style, with blitzing and gambling and generally big plays one way or the other. The way Baltimore plays defense is not conducive to stopping scramblers, either.

Something else is apparent and it involves the key stat of passer rating against for defenses, a stat where the Bears lead the NFL.

Daniels' passing stats have been built against poor or gambling pass defenses. He started against the Giants (29th, 102.9 rating), the Cardinals (28th, 102.9), Ravens 27th (101.6) and Panthers (111.8), although he didn't get to finish there. Marcus Mariota got to reap the benefits of facing the poor Carolina pass defense and had a fine day.

Daniels has faced only one pass defense ranking in the top half of the league in passer rating against, and that was Cincinnati. And the Bengals are 21st against the pass overall.

Daniels faced Cleveland's solid defense but they're only 18th in passer rating against and the Buccaneers are 19th. Daniels faced Tampa Bay in the opener.

BEARS AND COMMANDERS: WHO WINS AND WHY

FANTASY FOOTBALL LINEUP TIPS

So fantasy owners who might want to gamble that Daniels is going to play, would then be taking a double gamble by tying themselves to a QB facing the league's best team at passer rating against.

As for Williams, he hasn't beaten good pass defenses either. But everyone has known this and talked about it ad nauseum.

Besides, Williams hasn't been talked about as a fantasy QB to play until the past few games. Playing him against Washington on the road, after a bye week would have to be a play anyone would think twice about if they have another capable passer.

But the momentum is on Williams' side and at least you know he's playing.

Here's who to start and sit for Sunday's Bears and Commanders game.

Start 'Em

1. Bears WR DJ Moore

He's back to do damage again. A different passer, facing a different defense, but the Commanders have had holes in their secondary as Dan Quinn is still only seven games into getting his approach into action. He'll get them there. He always has, but it takes more than seven games. Moore's 230 yards on eight catches with three TDs from last year against the Commanders will be impossible to duplicate but he'll still be the main threat for Williams.

2. Bears WR Keenan Allen

The tap got turned on two weeks ago and it's going to start gushing out soon. Williams finally got to sample what an effective third-down receiver Allen is and is only going to continue to look his direction. Allen's catch percentage (60%) is the lowest it's the lowest it's ever been but that could be attributed to a new team with a rookie QB. Things have changed with the last game.

3. Bears RB D'Andre Swift

He's begun to work off the Bears' blocking scheme better and find open spaces, which he needs to do. He's not a power back and needs to use his speed. The other positive from a fantasy standpoint is his effectiveness in the screen game. The Commanders take some gambles on defense because their four-man rush isn't all it's supposed to be in Quinn's scheme, and Swift is the kind of big-play pass catcher out of the backfield who can take advantage of it.

4. Commanders RB Brian Robinson Jr.

The Bears did shut down the Jaguars' double-edged running game two weeks ago but the general trend for them has been that if they shut down the pass entirely, then they give up more in the run. Robinson is a no-nonsense power back who gets downhill and can burn the Bears defense the way Chuba Hubbard did for a 38-yard TD run two games ago. Robinson has 396 yards on 85 carries and six TDs and the Commanders know how to use him.

BEARS PAD DEPTH AT RB AND D-LINE WITH ROSTER MOVES

THREE BEARS KEYS TO REGAINING MOMENTUM BY BEATING COMMANDERS

BEARS BEST POSITIONED TO DO DAMAGE TO COMMANDERS

MATT EBERFLUS MORE INTERESTED IN HIS GUYS THAN JAYDEN DANIELS SITUATION

5. Commanders WR Terry McLaurin

Scary Terry will get his catches no matter what. He had four for 49 yards last year against the Bears. They might come with the team trailing, though. Last year he had one reception for 3 yards at halftime of the game that had already turned to a blowout, then made three more for 46 yards in an attempt to come back. McLaurin will likely have Jaylon Johnson on him all over the field, which also must be taken into account. He should have tough sledding but is good enough to come up with some decent numbers anyway.

6. Commanders TE Zach Ertz

Ertz facing up against Tremaine Edmunds is not a good matchup for the Commanders but some of the time he'll have safety Elijah Hicks on his side. Hicks isn't normally a starter. And if they put the slot over Ertz, he'll have a huge size edge on Josh Blackwell, who also is a sub. The problem for Ertz and the Commanders is getting much yardage this way. It might be a day where he makes a lot of catches for shorter yardage.

7. Bears TE Cole Kmet

He has ascended into the upper echelon of tight end threats but the Commanders are a potential problem for him. Linebacker Frankie Luvu has an 81.9 passer rating against, which is good for a linebacker. And if they want, they can go to Jeremy Chinn in coverage and at 6-3, 220, he would match up better with Kmet than most safeties. The problem there is Chinn has been a terrible coverage safety, allowing two TD passes each of the last two years and passer ratings of 132.7 with Carolina and 135.6 this year in Washington. A good run stopper and a safety very capable when covering big tight ends. Still, things like that rarely seem to stop Kmet in the red zone.

8. Bears QB Caleb Williams

Starting him is still something only done by owers who are probably missing their regular starter, at least until he establishes he's consistent as a passer by doing it against big-time defenses. Williams is facing a lot of pressure by going back home this week and in a showdown with Jayden Daniels, supposedly. That shouldn't bother him. He's been living in a fishbowl since high school. The Commanders have defensive flaws but they do represent the best defense he has faced in the past four games, so it's a risky move starting him in fantasy this week. still, SI.com fantasy expert Michael Fabiano has Williams among his top seven QBs for this week. So maybe it's not such a risk.

Sit 'Em

1. Bears WR Rome Odunze

The rookie has quietly tailed off in recent games with his production. It's a matter of Williams getting around to him in the progression. The Commanders have a numbers problem when it comes to quality cover guys and Odunze can exploit this.

2. Commanders RB Austin Ekeler

He hasn't played the Bears much since he was in the AFC with San Diego/L.A. but he did have a nice screen pass against the Bears last season for a TD, as he made T.J. Edwards look bad. Ekeler is still an all-around threat at age 29. He has 32 rushes for 188 yards and 17 catches in 18 targets in the passing game. He just doesn't get used as much in this Commanders offense and isn't really a priority for fantasy owners.

3. WR Luke McCaffrey

He's the type of back who could sneak open and give the Bears some fits but it seems unlikely he'd get enough reps to benefit a fantasy owner. Noah Brown (14 catches), Dyami Brown (9 catches) and Olamide Zaccheaus  (19 catches) are capable, too, but not likely to get enough throws their way to be considered for a fantasy team.

4. Bears K Cairo Santos

He had a field goal blocked on what might have been a high snap by Cole Kmet, and has had another miss in recent games. Overall, he's dependable but most fantasy owners might be turning to another option at this point.

5. Commanders K Austin Seibert

Although he's had a lot of kicks, he's only kicked twice from 50 and beyond and probably is not the kind of kicker you'd have on a fantasy team unless it was in a big league.

Defense

Every week the Bears defense probably should have been played this year. They haven't given up more than 21 points, they're taking away the ball at a faster rate than all but one other team. They're in the top 10 in sacks. All of this adds up to good fantasy team defense. Washington is not a play on defense on most Sundays.

In IDP leagues, a good option would be Kevin Byard or Tyrique Stevenson. Byard is always in position and ready for the deep throw if the Commanders get desperate. Teams throw away from Jaylon Johnson and that means they'll be throwing at Stevenson. And he's made five interceptions in 21 career games.

Of course, you can always go to be obvious play. Montez Sweat comes back to Washington to cause destruction. Sweat has been held to 2 1/2 sacks and seems on the verge of something big. The tackle spots on this Washington offensive line are the most questionable ones. Could it be like the 2021 game when Khalil Mack went to play the Raiders at home and destroyed their offense?

The Betting Window

Bears On SI Record in Bears Games: 6-0 straight up, 5-1 against the spread, 4-2 over/under.

This Week's Bears Prediction: Bears 26, Commanders 20

Last Week Around the NFL: 11-4 straight up, 8-7 ATS, 3-1 power plays

Around the NFL to Date: 68-37 straight up (.647), 61-42-2 ATS (.592), 15-13 power plays (.536)

This Week's NFL Games and Picks:

  • Cardinals +4 1/2 at Dolphins: Dolphins 30, Cardinals 20*
  • Jets -7 at Patriots: Jets 27, Patriots 16*
  • Eagles + 2 1/2 at Bengals: Eagles 27, Bengals 24*
  • Packers -3 1/2 at Jaguars: Packers 31, Jaguars 19
  • Falcons -2 1/2 at Buccaneers: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 23
  • Ravens -8 1/2 at Browns: Ravens 23, Browns 10
  • Colts +4 1/2 at Texans: Texans 24, Colts 14
  • Titans +11 1/2 at Lions: Lions 31, Titans 20
  • Saints +7 at Chargers: Chargers 24, Saints 19 
  • Bills -3 at Seahawks: Bills 24, Seahawks 20
  • Panthers +10 1/2 at Broncos: Broncos 31, Panthers 13*
  • Chiefs -9 1/2 at Raiders: Chiefs 20, Raiders 13
  • Cowboys +4 1/2 at 49ers: 49ers 27, Cowboys 24
  • Giants +5 1/2 at Steelers: Steelers 28, Giants 19
  • Texans +1 1/2 at Jets**: Texans 20, Jets 17

**Week 9 Thursday night game

*Power Play

Twitter: BearsOnSI

Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.