Bear Digest

Why Caleb Williams' Rookie Success Can Be Both Fantasy and Reality

Analysis: Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams is considered a rare rookie capable of succeeding at the intersection of real football and fantasy football.

Gene Chamberlain

Rookie QB are often considered a fantasy football nightmare but that might not be the case with Caleb Williams.
Rookie QB are often considered a fantasy football nightmare but that might not be the case with Caleb Williams. / David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
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Past failures generally prevent Bears fans from getting too excited about the future.

In Caleb Williams' case, even their disgusting history of quarterback failure seems to have fallen short of diminishing hopes for success in 2024.

The history says the Bears can't develop quarterbacks but maybe they've drafted one who doesn't need to be developed as much as other passers and, after all, they have an all-new group of coaches doing the developing.

ESPN's senior writer Eric Karabell found a reason for optimism dials to be turned up even to a greater extent. He actually suggests Williams is a rookie quarterback fantasy football owners need to think seriously about drafting.

Karabell not only suggests Williams will be worth drafting by fantasy owners, but that he's going to be a fantasy star.

To be sure, this isn't real football.

Justin Fields was regarded as a fantasy star because he could pile up points both as a runner and a passer, although at a far lower rate passing than as a runner. Yet, when it came to the actual winning of games he had a 10-28 record as starter--and don't trot out the old debunked theory about how the Bears failed to support Fields because backup Bears quarterbacks were only one game below .500 with the same teams during the same period (6-7).

However, to be a star immediately suggests reality can't be far behind. After all, it took Fields into his second season before he actually started being impactful as a fantasy QB.

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It definitely is a better team around Williams now, and Karabell suggests this is the main reason Williams has a good chance to be the rare immediate rookie quarterback sensation for fantasy football.

This is just the natural part of the Bears' rebuilding process. Williams is viewed as the QB who can take whatever situation he is in and make it succeed to some extent. With the talent he does have, it could be even better.

While building his argument, Karabell points out one embarrassing statistic about Bears history that Muhsin Muhammad told everyone a couple decades ago when he said Chicago is "...where receivers go to die."

"Only 13 Bears individuals have surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in a season," Karabell writes. "Jerry Rice alone achieved that more often."

Wow.

Ah, but now they have a receiver who did it six times with the Chargers in Keenan Allen, and DJ Moore did it last year with Justin Fields throwing for only a career high of 2,562 yards.

Add in Rome Odunze now with dual tight end threats and a running back who can catch and no one should ever be able to rely on the false narrative about how they haven't supported the quarterback. Fields had support, not the best, but he definitely should have been able to elevate what he had beyond a 10-28 record.

"This does not mean Williams, the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner, is assured of historic numbers and fantasy dominance in his debut season, but there is incredible talent surrounding him, and it is becoming difficult to envision Williams failing," Karabell wrote.

Note the use of words. He doesn't say there is a good chance or potential for success, but that it is becoming "difficult to envision Williams failing."

If Williams comes into the league at an elevated rookie baseline and improves from there, the supporting cast can be the determining factor for success.

In essence, from what Karabell has seen, there is too much talent around him and Williams has too much talent a passer, runner and quick thinker to be another Bears QB failure.

 "Rookies are inherently dangerous to rely on, regardless of position, for fantasy managers and for NFL coaches," Karabell acknowledges. "But Williams does offer a certain pedigree most young passers cannot match."

Often the failure of Bryce Young or a few failed past first overall picks are used as a reason to doubt Williams but Karabell laughs this one off by pointing to the second pick last year.

"The Houston Texans hardly lacked playmakers, with WRs Nico Collins and Tank Dell aiding TE Dalton Schultz and RB Devin Singletary," he wrote. "Would you rather have that group or Swift, Allen, Moore, Odunze and (Cole) Kmet, who caught 73 passes and six touchdowns from Fields and Tyson Bagent?"

It's a legitimate question. No one before last season would have given a second thought to saying the Bears cast is better. Some might say Houston's is better now but that's based on one season, and also adding Stefon Diggs to the mix. Even then, it's close.

"Williams has an elite arm, blessed with velocity and accuracy on short passes and down the field, both in the pocket and while on the move," Karabell concludes. "He is mobile, coachable and he shouldn't be overwhelmed at the NFL level."

And that surrounding cast won't hurt.

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Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.