Bear Digest

Why It's Safe to Expect Normal Keenan Allen Production Levels

Analysis: Keenan Allen's production for the Bears and in fantasy football doesn't need to be at last year's level but can and should be high quality at a mere 32 years old.

Gene Chamberlain

Keenan Allen might not look the way he did for the Chargers with several forces working against him, but precedent and his skills say he'll still be a major factor for the Bears offense.
Keenan Allen might not look the way he did for the Chargers with several forces working against him, but precedent and his skills say he'll still be a major factor for the Bears offense. / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
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Complaints from non-fantasy football fans about fantasy league participants usually start with how they're not interested in hearing about how your team is doing.

It's like listening to someone talk about their golf game. No one cares and the other fantasy owners only want to hear your guys are doing poorly.

The two can find common ground, however. Both would simply like to know how new players with their team will perform, whether in reality or in fantasy.

Mystery follows a player like Keenan Allen to Chicago as he is changing teams for the first time and Bears fans unaffiliated with fantasy football would like to know how he'll do as much as fantasy owners would.  

In a 2020 story by Carlos Surace for the Analytics of Dynasty entitled "History of WR Changing Teams," the writer did a 20-year study of what happens to wide receivers who move to a new team. They looked at 184 receivers and found the great percentage who changed teams suffer a decline in production. In many cases, the decline is followed by Year 2 improvement to lesser degrees than the decline.

It's not universal. Obviously, DJ Moore changed teams last year after starting his career in Carolina and produced career numbers. Some receivers have done the same and it seems, in recent years, it happens more often the other way now than in past years. However, there has been no specific study of the last four seasons done and the sample size of 2000-2020 is fairly large to ignore.

That study found 77% of receivers who had produced at Allen's fantasy level had a decline over what their averages from the previous three seasons. The decline would have been, on average 3.89 points per game. A standard Point Per Reception league counts one point for a catch and a tenth of point for a yard.

The Bears experienced some of this when they signed Allen Robinson. In looking back on his poor 2018 totals, it was easy to predict as he was coming off a torn ACL even with plenty of time to recover. He bounced back fine in 2019 and 2020.

The study's usefulness may not be as great in Keenan Allen's case because they only studied receivers who weren't over 30 years of age and Allen is 32.

The reason for this is obvious. Receivers over 30 naturally decline in production but it's not the steep decline running backs have when they hit 30. Allen was the exception last year when producing career numbers after being forced into being the chief target for Justin Herbert following Mike Williams' season-ending injury. 

Since the study doesn't address receivers over 30, it's leaving out a huge section of players who can best be called the "over-30 crafty types." Allen definitely fits this. Receivers over 30 have seen all the coverages, like a quarterback over 30. They make adjustments younger receivers never even ponder and they get open. The big-play potential diminishes but their ability to make the needed first-down catch still exists.

It's the explosiveness they lose but they compensate. Think Michael Jordan in the second three-peat posting up and hitting the fall-away jumper instead of flying past someone to posterize someone.

Numerous other fantasy studies have shown receivers actually hold their own after a slight dip in their early 30s. One suggested only an 8% dip. Either way, it's not until they get to 34 that the real decline occurs.

"All the NFL coaches have seen Keenan for a lot of years and the first thing that comes to mind is that he's crafty," Bears coach Matt Eberflus said. "He is so crafty with his route running. It seems like he's always open, even when I (as defensive coordinator in Indianapolis) used to double-cover him. He is crafty. He understands his body and understands his way.

"He's really friendly to the quarterback because he's a really big target and he's very good at what he does."

Cornerback Jaylon Johnson noted this after facing Allen in the past and also at minicamp.

"I feel like, as skillful as a lot of these guys are in this league that do a lot of great things, I feel like they are not as unpredictable, they are not as crafty as I feel like Keenan is," he said.

Allen isn't one to discard the label. A rookie quarterback can always use that security blanket of a slot receiver who finds ways to be open over the middle.

"I think it means your technique and the ways you're able to perform are an art," he said. "You're able to just make things look different. You're probably doing the same things, but it looks a little different. You're able to get to it different ways."

The factors like a rookie quarterback, a receiver corps with multiple targets and a new offense do not seem to apply as potential major drawbacks for Allen because he has been through it all before. He went through the QB switch from Philip Rivers to Herbert. He had offenses under coordinators Ken Whisenhunt, Shane Steichen, Frank Reich, Joe Lombardi and Kellen Moore. He has been in an offense with multiple targets like Williams, Gerald Everett, Hunter Henry, DeAndre Carter and Austin Ekeler.

In Allen's case, he's been crafty all along as well as explosive. He keeps producing. Crafty trumps many situations in the NFL, even age and switching teams to a certain point.

Allen can apply this crafty approach to retain his production in 2024 while giving the Bears the difficult decision of whether to extend his contract past one year.

Keenan Allen 2024 Fantasy Projection

Vitals: 6-foot-2, 211 pounds, 12th season.

Career: 940 receptions on 1,309 targets, 10,530 yards, 59 TDs, 11.6 yards per catch, 61.2 catch percentage, 69.1% catch/target rate.

2023: 108 receptions on 150 targets, 1,243 yards, 7 TDs, 11.5 yards per catch, 72.0% catch/target rate.

Fantasy Scoring: Last year Moore brought in 294.9 points on a DraftKings scoring system, 224.9 on FanDuel and 170.86 on a standard fantasy scoring system.

2024 Bears On SI Projection: 80 receptions, 984 yards, 111 targets, 12.3 yards per catch, 6 TDs, 72.0% catch rate.

Michael Fabiano's SI Fantasy Ranking: No. 33 among all wide receivers.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

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Gene Chamberlain

GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.