AFC Championship Film Breakdown: How Patrick Mahomes' Ankle Injury Could Impact the Bengals' Defense

Mahomes sprained his ankle last week in the Chiefs' 27-20 win over the Jaguars.

Mike Santagata | Jan 27, 2023

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Cincinnati Bengals

The biggest news heading into the AFC Championship Game is Patrick Mahomes’ injured ankle. He'll play on Sunday, but how good will he be in this game? It’s doubtful that he'll be 100%, but will it be as bad as it was against Jacksonville? Just how bad was the mobility against the Jaguars? Let’s dive into the film to see.

After the injury, Mahomes seemed to be more limited in the game. Normally, he can play some backyard football and run around to work out of structure. After the injury, he only scrambled one time and it did not look pretty.

pic.twitter.com/cHQ5fYCrR9
— Wally the dog (@pff_wally) January 27, 2023

While he does not look good in this clip running, it does show that he has the ability to run if push comes to shove and he has a wide open opportunity. Because of that, the Bengals will probably still try to keep some of their run lane integrity in this game, even if it is not as emphasized as it was in the previous three matchups with the Chiefs.

It was clear last week that the ankle was bothering Mahomes. There is no more obvious case of this than when he had to skip back to hand the ball off.

Mahomes was literally skipping his way to the backfield for handoffs pic.twitter.com/DBKS2GFO7H
— mike (@bengals_sans) January 27, 2023

There has been some conspiracy theorizing that Mahomes was not actually that hurt, but plays like this and the fact that Chad Henne had to play for a drive make it very clear that Mahomes was in fact injured. Just how much does this affect his passing game though?

After the injury he was not mobile really but he still avoided pressure and made insane passes pic.twitter.com/2fnUcTobbR
— mike (@bengals_sans) January 26, 2023

Mahomes footwork in this game took a bit of a dip from the ankle. However, Mahomes is still one of the most creative and talented quarterbacks in the league. Even with the ankle, he was making plays like that where he jumped off of one leg and still could drive the ball just with his pure arm and core strength. The most interesting thing about that clip to me is Mahomes' ability to avoid pressure even with the busted ankle. Much like the scramble, it just shows that Mahomes will still be able to punish undisciplined pass rushers.

Typically the Bengals try to constrict space against Mahomes so he cannot escape at all in these games. Now they may give someone like Trey Hendrickson free reign to try to win inside or outside rather than just through the offensive tackle, but they should not allow all of their rushers to play like that. Even when it comes to blitzing Mahomes, it may not be as effective as anticipated because of his ability to wiggle just enough.

The zip on Mahomes passes also seems to have remained consistent in this game.

pic.twitter.com/U9YMylDUEa
— Wally the dog (@pff_wally) January 27, 2023

While it is hard to tell if this is exactly the same amount of zip as he can normally put on the ball, it’s clear that the ankle injury did not affect his ability to drive the ball.

pic.twitter.com/yWxZ7g47VK
— Wally the dog (@pff_wally) January 27, 2023

This is still true even on plays where Mahomes is trying to drive the ball down the field as well. The howitzer that Mahomes has attached to his right shoulder still exists and the Bengals should expect him to be able to make every throw that he normally can make.

With most of Mahomes ability still being normal, it is worth pointing out that he seemed to be slightly more inaccurate in this game.

pic.twitter.com/U7BNyoQW4Q
— Wally the dog (@pff_wally) January 27, 2023

Mahomes did struggle some with accuracy issues, especially when he pushed the ball down the field. The Chiefs in general didn't ask Mahomes to push the ball down the field much after the injury, but when he did try it was more hit or miss than normal.

Overall, I think that the Bengals will mostly play Mahomes like they normally play him. They may lean slightly more into giving their pass rushers free reign to just win instead of trying to contain Mahomes and they should expect a more underneath passing game from the Chiefs, but Mahomes is still extremely dangerous even with just one leg.

Rather than being a complete liability avoiding pressure and throwing with power, he seems to have just taken a hit in those areas. He can still punish defenses and the Bengals should expect him to be around 80% as effective as he normally is. He’s known for what he can do outside of structure, but he’s still one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the league when in structure.

Cincinnati fights Kansas City for a spot in the Super Bowl this Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS. The game is available via fuboTV—start your free trial here.

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