Bengal Bets: Three Picks Ahead of Bengals v. Browns on Halloween Night

Cincinnati has lost four-straight games to Cleveland.

CINCINNATI — The Cincinnati Bengals were hitting a nice stride on offense after a 35-17 win over Atlanta, and then the worst part of the sport happened. Star wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase is reportedly out for at least a month with a hip injury.

He changes the calculation for the Cincinnati offense and for Bengal Bets, which just had the sixth winning week out of seven tries this season. 

Burrow smashed his passing yard total in the first half, and that outburst helped cash O27.5 points in the opening 30 minutes as well. Unfortunately, Marcus Mariota kept us from a sweep by barely missing his rushing yards over.

Let's get to this week's picks as Cincinnati tries to avoid a detrimental 0-3 hole in the AFC North.

Season Record: 14-7 (+4.51 units)

Bengals -3.5 (+100 SI Sportsbook)

No Chase is a massive blow for this Bengals offense, but it's not a death knell against a 2-5 Browns team with a bottom-two defense in the league.

Chase is top-five league-wide in catches, receptions, receiving TDs, 20-plus yard catches, targets, and receiving first downs while sitting sixth in receiving yards. The offense is going to be worse, there's no way around that, but it won't collapse.

Tyler Boyd (first in Football Outsider's receiving DVOA, fourth in DYAR) and Tee Higgins (14th DVOA, 14th DYAR) are capable of picking up the slack. Plus, the Bengals have the fifth-most efficient QB in the league right now, and a star running back averaging 4.64 yards per carry over the past three games.

A perfect trend to test against the least efficient run defense this century.

That is not hyperbole.

Since 1999, no defense has allowed even 0.1 EPA/rush, let alone the 0.124 mark the Browns are giving up this season. Almost double the average of Detroit at No. 31. 

They are getting destroyed on chunk runs, and it sets Joe Mixon up for a huge game when the team needs him most and maybe a few more runs for Joe Burrow. Cincinnati is 28th on the season in EPA/rush but ranks third in that metric over the past three weeks.

The Browns also have a bunch of injury issues, including a lingering concussion to star corner Denzel Ward. And the betting trends are not favorable to The Land.

• The Bengals are 13-2 against the spread in their last 15 games, including covering five consecutive games. Not to mention, Burrow is 12-2 ATS in his previous 14 starts.
• Jacoby Brissett on MNF: 0-2 SU/ATS, failing to cover the spread by 13 PPG
• Brissett has played five career games on extended rest as an underdog: 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS

Nick Chubb O82.5 Rushing Yards (SI Sportsbook -125)

The Bengals get the lovely task of trying to stop the best pure runner in the NFL this season. Chubb is a human bowling ball in the Browns' backfield, leading the league in rushing yards (740), and yards per carry (5.9) among all qualified players (min. 80 carries).

If the traditional numbers aren't enough, the advanced numbers hammer home his dominance. The Georgia product is sixth in yards after contact (three yards per carry), tenth in rush attempts per broken tackle (9.7), first in rushing DYAR, and second in rushing DVOA.

This man is dominating the league, hitting the yardage over in 6-of-7 games—the only miss coming in a 38-15 loss to New England where the Browns trailed 24-6 in the third quarter and had to pass.

A repeat of that scenario is the only way I see this under hitting for the second time in 2022. The Bengals did a great job against Tyler Allgeier (24th DYAR, 22nd DVOA) and the Falcons' rushing attack, but this offensive line and running back are different animals.

Missing elite guard Wyatt Teller would hurt, but even factoring that in, Cleveland still ranks second in PFF's offensive line rankings.

2H U22.5 (+100 SI Sportsbook)

By now the second-half heroics are the stuff of legend for a Bengals defense that hasn't allowed a score in the timeframe at all this season—the longest stretch to open an NFL campaign since at least 2000.

Cincinnati (3.9 points) and Buffalo are the only teams in the league allowing less than five second-half points per game. Cleveland may score a touchdown and end the streak, but it's not likely.

The Browns are 14th overall in 2H scoring (11 PPG), but have dropped to 21st in recent weeks (8.7), while the Bengals' offense is middle of the pack across the same stretch (10). 

I see this being a pretty nip/tuck game with Chase's injury capping the Bengals' offensive ceiling. Plus, the trends are saying to go under.

• The Bengals have hit the 2H Under in an absurd 17 of their last 18 games (+15.85 Units / 80% ROI)
• The Browns have hit the 2H Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.50 Units / 29% ROI)
• Unders are 25-10 in NFL division games this season. The best start for divisional unders in the last 20 years
• Unders in 2022 night games: 14-9 (Games at night since 2019: 108-78-3 to under)

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