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Bengals Analysis: An In-Depth Look at Joe Burrow's Case for MVP

Burrow and the Bengals are 8-8. They've won four-straight games.

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Dec 28, 2024; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) audibles during the second quarter against the Denver Broncos at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images
Dec 28, 2024; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) audibles during the second quarter against the Denver Broncos at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images / Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images
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Written By Jake Liscow

It’s stating the obvious to say that Joe Burrow is having a historic season. It’s easy to make an MVP argument for the 28-year-old despite the Cincinnati Bengals’ 8-8 record, and fringe playoff hopes. It’s just as easy for many to point to the team’s record and move on with their day. For the sake of analysis, let’s not move on with our day so easily.

A Statistical Rundown

Starting with traditional stats, Burrow leads the NFL in passing yards and touchdown passes. He’s 5th in completion percentage. Even though he leads the league in dropbacks, he’s thrown just eight interceptions, his 1.3% interception rate ranking in the top 5 in the NFL. 

What do various advanced stats say? Burrow ranks:

  • 1st in Pro Football Focus (PFF) passing grade
  • 1st in passing success rate
  • 2nd in PFF overall grade
  • 2nd in completion percentage over expectation
  • 3rd in ESPN QBR
  • 4th in expected points added (EPA) per play
  • 4th in adjusted yards per attempt
  • 6th in adjusted net yards per attempt
  • 7th in PFF big time throw rate
  • 4th in PFF turnover worthy throw rate
  • 5th in PFF adjusted completion percentage

His sack avoidance has taken a big leap this year, up to 12th in the NFL.

Roster Context

Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are two of the best receivers in the NFL. But, Burrow has taken a beating this year playing behind a leaky offensive line that’s still a liability. Guards Alex Cappa and Cordell Volson have allowed 47 and 39 pressures respectively, the most and second-most in the league. The Bengals rank in the bottom 5 in pass protection metrics from PFF, SIS, and ESPN analytics. 

Despite facing the 2nd most pressure in the NFL (tied with CJ Stroud), Burrow is 1st in PFF passing grade when pressured. And we’ve made it this far without mentioning the Bengals defense, which has allowed the 5th most points this year.

Scheme: Hard Mode

Anyone watching the games observes a lack of “easy button” plays in the Bengals’ offense, which often relies on Burrow and its tremendous receivers to win their respective matchups. The Bengals use play action sparingly—5th least in the NFL—and call the fewest screens in the NFL by a large margin. The explosive, easy shot plays from 2021 aren’t there this year either; he’s thrown the 3rd lowest percentage of passes 20+ yards downfield of any QB in the NFL ahead of just Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes. 

There’s not much help from the run game, either, which should make the passing game easier to defend for Bengals’ opponents. Cincinnati has PFF’s 3rd worst run blocking grade and 7th worst rushing grade of any NFL team. They average the 4th lowest rushing yards per game in the league. 

What About the Competition?

Burrow walks a difficult road at the quarterback position. Unlike the MVP frontrunners in Baltimore and Buffalo, Burrow doesn’t have a robust run game, doesn’t lean into the “easy button” plays in the screen or play action game. Opposing defenses force him to be patient by schematically limiting go ball opportunities. On top of that, the Bengals’ defense this year is among the worst in the NFL. 

Burrow is dicing up defenses in the pure dropback game instead, often in negative gamescripts, showcasing pre-snap mastery and elite post-snap processing. He still showcases pinpoint accuracy and ball placement that facilitates yards after the catch. 2024’s improved pocket presence and off-script, off-platform playmaking further elevate his performance. 

You’re left to conclude that Burrow is excelling at the quarterback position on the highest difficulty setting with chaos around him. Most years, that’s enough to win the NFL’s MVP award.

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