Key Matchups: Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs

Can Cincinnati beat Kansas City and win the AFC North for the first time since 2015?

The Bengals are one win away from winning the AFC North. It would be the team’s first division title since 2015 and fifth since 2002. 

Winning will be much easier said than done against the AFC-leading Chiefs.

“We know how big of a test this Kansas City game is,” Zac Taylor said this week. “It’s far and away the biggest game of the year for us. We’ve got a huge challenge coming to town, and our guys are going to be ready for it.”

Kansas City has won eight-consecutive games after starting the season 3-4. Their win against the Steelers last week clinched their sixth-straight AFC West championship. They currently hold the AFC’s number one overall seed.

The Chiefs return a number of players from the Reserve/COVID-19 list including Travis Kelce and Harrison Butker among the 14 players sidelined with COVID for Kansas City over the past two weeks.

Cincinnati received good news on the injury front. Logan Wilson was a full participant in practice, but his status for the game still remains unknown. Germaine Pratt was added to the Bengals’ Reserve/COVID-19 list this week. D.J. Reader was activated from the list on Thursday and will play against Kansas City. 

This game has the makings to be a high-scoring battle with the dynamic offenses led by Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes. Both quarterbacks have the ability to take over a game with plenty of star power surrounding them.

Let’s take a look at the key matchups ahead of this pivotal Week 17 contest.

Patrick Mahomes vs. Bengals Secondary

Mahomes against the Bengals pass defense is the matchup of the game. The former MVP is arguably the most talented quarterback the Bengals face this season.

Arm strength is one of Mahomes’ best attributes. He can throw a deep pass with ease in a clean pocket or roll out to make a long throw under pressure. Mahomes is averaging 287 yards per game with 52 passes of 20 or more yards and nine passes of 40 or more yards.

Cincinnati ranks 29th in pass defense. They’re giving up 252 yards per game. The Bengals have given up the third-most passes of 20+ yards (58).

Mahomes’ uncanny skill to throw no-look or side arm passes as well as anticipate where receivers will be in their route or improv situations to extend plays makes him elite.

The Bengals have forced teams into a one-sided passing attack with their top-five rush defense. Their defense has seen the run called on just over 37.6% of time. This will likely be the case Sunday with the Chiefs favoring the pass and starting running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire dealing with a shoulder injury. Still, this benefits the Chiefs and their game plan.

Individually, Chidobe Awuzie, Eli Apple, and Mike Hilton have played well, and as a unit, the secondary has come up with key stops when need be. However, the chunk plays have been a problem this season. They’re coming off a performance that allowed Josh Johnson, the Ravens’ third-string quarterback and had less than 24 hours to prepare as QB1, to throw for 304 yards and two touchdowns.

Mahomes spread the wealth to nine different receivers in the Chiefs win over Pittsburgh in Week 16. Kelce’s return will eminently exploit the Bengals weakness in the middle of the field with a depleted linebacker group and an area in which tight ends have played well against Cincinnati. Nearly half of Mahomes’ targets go to Kelce and Tyreek Hill.

Advantage: Patrick Mahomes

Joe Burrow vs. Chiefs Secondary

Mahomes is notoriously known for explosive plays, but Burrow's ability to create big plays has taken off this season. The quarterback is averaging a league-best 8.7 yards per attempt with 55 passes of 20 or more yards. Thirteen of Burrow’s completions have been of 40 yards or longer.

Burrow’s deep threat has resulted in scores. He's thrown 13 touchdown passes of 30 or more yards. No quarterback has more touchdowns from that yardage since 2000. 

Kansas City’s pass defense is ranked 25th. They have given up 44 passes of 20 or more yards and 11 of 40+ yards. The unit has allowed 23 touchdowns through the air, one more than the Bengals.

Burrow’s arm strength has greatly improved since last season, but his ability to manage the pocket, accuracy, and processing of defenses puts him at an elite level. 

He’s taken a league-worst 47 sacks, but Burrow has been able to avoid a number of them by averting rushers, bouncing off hits, and scrambling out of the pocket to continue the play while keeping his eyes downfield for the completion.

The Chiefs have forced 21 turnovers during their eight-game win streak. Ten of those turnovers have been interceptions. Burrow has alleviated his interception miscues in the past three games by keeping the turnover sheet clean in large part due to his accuracy. Burrow has been accurate throughout the season as 82.7% of his throws have been on target, but has put together better games with tighter passes in recent weeks.

Like the Bengals, the Chiefs secondary has individually played well and the group has made stops when needed. Tyrann Mathieu is the leader of the secondary. He has three interceptions and 67 tackles. He will play all over the field at both safety positions, box, and slot. Mathieu’s name has been a constant in the discussion for best safety in the league.

Mathieu is joined by Charvarius Ward and L’Jarius Sneed on the outside. Ward has allowed a completion on 48.4% of his targets and Sneed is a sure-tackler at corner.

Burrow is coming off the best performance of his young career with 525 passing yards (fourth-most in NFL history) and four touchdowns. He was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week and the Air Player of the Week. 

He and the Bengals offensive playmakers are proving they can go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs offense.

Advantage: Joe Burrow

Travis Kelce vs. Jessie Bates/Vonn Bell

Whether the Bengals are going to be at full strength with Wilson back in the lineup and Pratt off the COVID list or not, Kelce is going to be a mismatch for this defense.

“He’s [Kelce] the top of the top,” Bell said. “His savviness, his finesse and how he can get open and read defense. He always has that relentless motor."

Kelce has 1,066 receiving yards on 83 catches on 122 targets with seven touchdowns, averaging 76.1 yards per game. He is second behind Mark Andrews in yards by a tight end.

Cincinnati fared well against the position to start the season, but they've been beaten by opposing tight ends in recent weeks. They've allowed four 100-yard games in the past six contests. Three of those four games were against the NFL’s best tight ends in Darren Waller, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews. Kelce is arguably the best receiver of the bunch.

His combination of size and skill has made him into one of the most productive tight ends in the NFL.

Kelce's jump off the line is uncommon for a player of his size at 6-5. Kelce’s route running allows him to create separation. Per Next Gen Stats, he is averaging 3.3 yards of separation.

Plus, his chemistry with Mahomes is unparalleled. Many praise the connection between Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, but Kelce and Mahomes are right up there too.

Bell said technique will be key in defending Kelce because of his athleticism. The tight end isn’t going to run someone over, but will beat them with his feet and ability to extend the play.

Advantage: Travis Kelce

Trey Hendrickson vs. Orlando Brown

Hendrickson broke the Bengals single-season sack record last week. He surpassed Carlos Dunlap’s record of 13.5 sacks.

The Pro Bowler continues to add to a stellar resume week-in and week-out. Through 15 games, Hendrickson has 71 quarterback pressures, 34 tackles, 25 quarterback hits, 14 sacks, 12 tackles for loss, and 3 forced fumbles according to Pro Football Focus.

Brown is no stranger to the Bengals. He spent the first three years of his career with Baltimore until he was traded to Kansas City this offseason.

The left tackle has been an upgrade at the position for the Chiefs and been a factor in Mahomes’ improved protection this season. PFF has an overall grade of 73.8 with just four sacks allowed and seven penalties forced.

Brown was named to the Pro Bowl. Creed Humphrey, Joe Thuney, and Trey Smith are all alternates.

He has struggled against the speed rush, which is where Hendrickson has the advantage. Hendrickson’s ability to explode off the line has made him a lethal weapon as part of Cincinnati’s pass rush. He uses his speed to turn the corner or bully an offensive lineman backwards to win at the line of scrimmage. 

Advantage: Trey Hendrickson

Chris Jones vs. Bengals Interior Offensive Line

A lack of pass rush was a large factor in Kansas City’s early season defensive struggles.

Jones started the season playing a majority of snaps on the edges, away from his natural defensive tackle position. He had two sacks against Cleveland in Week 1, but things died off after that.

The Pro Bowler missed Weeks 5 and 6 with a wrist injury. Upon his return, Jones was placed back inside, which was the spark the Chief’s defense needed.

In 12 games, Jones has 58 pressures, seven sacks, 23 tackles, and one forced fumble.

He plays all over the line, but will get the majority of snaps against Trey Hopkins, Hakeem Adeniji, and Quinton Spain.

Spain has performed the best of the trio. He has a 72.4 overall grade per PFF, while Adeniji (51.8) and Hopkins (50.8) have posted much lower scores.

Hopkins has improved as the season has progressed. Since the Bengals bye, he hasn’t allowed a sack and six pressures. Hopkins tore his ACL in Week 17 of last season. He started the season, but seems he is now getting back into his groove and full strength from the injury.

Advantage: Chris Jones

This is by far the game of the week with the playoff implications riding this game. It will come down to the arms of Mahomes and Burrow as it should be a shootout in the first meeting between the two quarterbacks.

Although the contest is likely to be an air show, Joe Mixon could very well be the x-factor in this game. The Chiefs are giving up an average of 116.5 ground yards per game and 4.7 yards per attempt. A balanced attack has been the foundation of the Cincinnati offense this season. In the midst of Burrow’s record day last week, Mixon still tallied 65 rushing yards.

Both defenses have given up big plays, but it will come down to which one can create turnovers or stop the explosive offenses when need be.

Get your popcorn ready, because Sunday is going to be a show.

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