Key Matchups: Bengals Face Ravens for Third Time This Season in Wild Card Round of NFL Playoffs

Cincinnati is 1-1 against Baltimore this season.

Cincinnati opens their playoff journey against the Ravens on Sunday night.

They face their AFC North rival for a second-consecutive week and third time this season.

The regular season finale was a teaser to Sunday's contest. Baltimore didn't play all of their starters and both teams minimally went into their playbooks. However, things still became heated between the division foes.

A number of Bengals players spoke out on how the Ravens got chippy at times throughout the game. It sparked back-and-forth comments throughout the week between members of both teams.

They are ready to settle things on the field. Let's take a look at this week's matchups.

Key Matchup: Bengals Run Defense vs. J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards

The Ravens finished the regular season with the second-most rushing yards (2,720) in in the NFL. They averaged 5.2 yards per carry.

Baltimore has four players with 400+ yards rushing this season. Lamar Jackson leads the team with 764 yards, despite missing the last five games of the season. Through Week 13, Jackson had 40% of the team's rushing yards. 

In the quarterback's absence, Dobbins and Edwards stepped up to continue their ground game dominance. The duo had 619 yards on 91 attempts from Week 14 to Week 17. Dobbins ran for more yards than any running back in that stretch.

Dobbins did not play in Week 18 and Edwards left the game early with a concussion. 

A huge part of their rushing success comes from the Ravens' top-rated run block win rate (77%). Four of their five starting offensive linemen finished in the top-10 of run block win rate for their positions per ESPN Analytics:

- Tyler Linderbaum: 77% (1st among Centers)
- Ben Powers: 79% (2nd among Guards)
- Ronnie Stanley: 80% (t-7th among Tackles)
- Morgan Moses: 80% (t-7th among Tackles)

The Bengals rush defense has greatly improved as the season progressed to finish as the fifth best run defense. 

From Week 1 to Week 9, the group gave up an average of 119 yards per game. That number went down to 91 yards per game from Week 11 to Week 18 (seven games).

Cincinnati's run defense, led by DJ Reader and Sam Hubbard, will need to limit the big runs by wrapping up Dobbins and Edwards on first hits. If they can take away the ground game, it will put even more pressure on Tyler Huntley, who is likely to start at quarterback for Baltimore. 

Joe Burrow vs. Ravens Pass Defense

Burrow admitted he was off last week against the Ravens and has to play better on Sunday night.

The quarterback torched Baltimore in 2021 for 941 yards and seven touchdowns. However, the Ravens have held him to 432 yards and two touchdowns this season. 

"They are really good defense. They know what we try to do on offense, we know what they try to do on defense," Burrow said. "So they try to take away our bread and butter stuff and they’re pretty good at it. We play them a lot. They have a really good defensive coordinator who makes it tough on you out there so we’ve got to find some ways to find some explosive plays and stay efficient and keep moving the ball down the field. I think we have a good game plan to do that."

The Ravens' defense has star power on all three levels. Their secondary features Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters, and Marcus Williams. Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen are arguably the best linebacking duo in the league and Calais Campbell leads a physical defensive line.

Baltimore likely won't blitz a lot during Sunday's game. In Week 5, Burrow was blitzed just once. The play resulted in a 33-yard completion to Mike Thomas. This past week, Burrow was blitzed three times. He finished 1-of-3 when five or more defenders were sent after him. The one completion was Ja'Marr Chase's 26-yard touchdown grab.

Thus, the Ravens will rely on three or four man rushes at the line of scrimmage with a mix of different high safety and zone looks. With this defensive scheme in Week 18, their defense was able to record 14 pressures on Burrow according to Pro Football Focus.

Burrow and the offense will probably show more spread offense formations and hit receivers sitting between defenders in the zones or underneath.

For an in-depth look at how Burrow and the Bengals' offense can attack Baltimore's defense,  check out our film breakdown here.

Joe Mixon vs. Roquan Smith, Patrick Queen

Cincinnati's running game was non-existent last week. They finished with 55 total rushing yards. Mixon had a team-high with 27 yards on 11 attempts.

Baltimore finished the season as the third overall and run defenses thanks in large part to Smith and Queen.

The duo is fast and able to rush the gap, close running lanes, and track down ball carriers in open field. They have combined for 203 tackles and 16 tackles for loss this season (these numbers do not account for Smith's numbers with the Bears).

Smith was traded to Baltimore in the middle of the season. He was rewarded with a 5-year, $100 million extension this week. He's the highest paid linebacker in NFL history.

Although it's important for the Bengals to establish a balanced attack, Mixon can be a viable weapon as a pass catcher out of the backfield. 

Mixon has 60 receptions for 441 yards and two touchdowns. Baltimore has given up 93 catches (7th-most) for 729 yards (6th-most) to running backs. 

If Burrow is feeling the pressure or pass coverage holds up, Mixon should be a dump off option to gain yards after the catch and contact.

Bengals Secondary vs. Mark Andrews

Andrews was a healthy scratch last week to rest him for the playoffs. 

The Pro Bowler is one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the NFL. He had 73 receptions for 847 yards and five scores this season.

In Week 17, he and Huntley connected for nine catches for 100 yards. They developed a rhythm that they will look to continue against the Bengals.

Mark Andrews 1-on-1 vs. safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. Gain of 18.

Mark Andrews double coverage vs. LB and safety. Gain of 19.

Mark Andrews vs. CB Cam Sutton on third-and-6. Gets open quickly but doesn't get the ball. pic.twitter.com/IvFKjK2I73

— Ryan Mink (@ryanmink) January 2, 2023

Cincinnati allowed 88 catches (8th-most) for 924 yards (9th-most) and three touchdowns (27th) to opposing tight ends this season.

Andrews' replacement, Isaiah Likely, led Baltimore with eight receptions for 103 yards last week. 

Jessie Bates, Vonn Bell, Tre Flowers, Mike Hilton, Logan Wilson, and Germaine Pratt will all see action against Andrews on Sunday. An all-in effort will try to make Andrews a non-factor in an already struggling offense.

Evan McPherson vs. Justin Tucker

Every point matters in the playoffs. A missed extra point or field goal could be the difference as the stakes are higher. 

Tucker is a future Hall of Famer. He was announced to his eighth All-Pro Team this week. Tucker was 37-of-43 on field goal attempts this season, making the third most kicks in a single season of his career. His made field goal percentage (86%) was the third-lowest of his career. His six misses shows that the 11-year veteran rarely misses.

He has made 14-of-18 attempts in the postseason, including 2-of-4 from 50+. Tucker was 9-of-14 from that range this season.

McPherson is 24-of-29 on the season for field goal attempts and 40-of-44 on point after attempts. Although McPherson has struggled at times this season, he remained 100% from field goals of 50+ yards (5-of-5).

The second-year kicker had a perfect postseason drilling all 14 of his field goal attempts and six point after attempts last year. Two of those field goals were game-winners, which were a 52-yard attempt against the Titans in the divisional round game and a 31-yard kick in overtime at Kansas City that sent the the Bengals to the Super Bowl.

Cincinnati and Baltimore run it back in the Wild Card round on Sunday at 8:15 p.m. ET. The game is available on NBC via fuboTV—start your free trial here.

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