Key Matchups: Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
The Bengals are just one win away from the Super Bowl, but they have to get past the Chiefs on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium.
Joe Burrow outdueled Patrick Mahomes in the first matchup between the two star quarterbacks in Week 17.
The AFC has run through Kansas City in recent seasons. They're hosting their fourth-consecutive conference championship game. In order to take the crown, Cincinnati must beat them on their home field in a playoff environment that the Chiefs know all too well.
Here are the AFC Championship matchups to watch for on Sunday.
Joe Burrow vs. Chiefs Secondary
Burrow and the offense started slow in the first meeting totaling just 25 yards on their first two possessions. On the third drive, he found Ja’Marr Chase on a hitch route in the middle of zone coverage. Chase outran everyone for a 72-yard touchdown that set the tone for the rest of the game. That jumpstarted the offense, as Burrow's day ended with 446 yards and four touchdowns.
Kansas City’s defense likes to play man coverage, but the Chiefs learned they cannot play man consistently against Burrow and his weapons.
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has a decision to make. Will he play a zone defense in hopes of making the second-year quarterback hold the ball longer, which could allow for the pass rush to capitalize? Even with Burrow taking nine sacks against the Titans, he still threw for 348 yards.
Burrow will need to lead this offense to capitalize on touchdowns and not settle for field goals. In 22 offensive possessions this postseason, Cincinnati has scored just three touchdowns.
Burrow has been praised for his mental approach to the game. He’s calm, cool, and collected on the field, because of his preparation. His mental notes of opposing players and observations of their tendencies is why he has been able to succeed well in rematches this season.
Ja’Marr Chase vs. Charvarius Ward
Chase popped off against Ward in Week 17. The rookie had 11 catches for 266 yards and three touchdowns. Ward was Moss’d in the endzone on one of Chase’s scores and on the receiving end of the 3rd-and-27 conversion that helped set the Bengals' game-winning field goal.
Ward has shadowed the opponent's top wide receiver in recent games. His best game came last weekend against the Bills, limiting Stefon Diggs to three catches for seven yards in the Chiefs’ 42-36 overtime win. However, the Chiefs also played a safety over the top to help contain Diggs.
If Ward and the Kansas City defense were to have a repeat performance against Chase on Sunday, the Bengals' offense can still attack with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Bills wide receiver Gabriel Davis finished with 201 yards and four touchdowns on eight catches, while Cole Beasley added six receptions for 60 yards.
Chase’s playmaking abilities are always a threat and they open up opportunities for his teammates.
Bengals Secondary vs. Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes put together a solid first half against the Bengals in the first meeting, but Cincinnati’s halftime adjustments slowed him and the Chiefs offense down in the second half en route to their comeback victory. The quarterback was 9-of-13 for just 50 yards in the second half.
The Bengals were most effective in Cover 2 zone, taking away the deep threat and forcing Mahomes to throw underneath. The defense was able to close in quickly to prevent yards after catch. Cincinnati’s secondary had two dropped interceptions on throws from Mahomes that could've changed the momentum of the game.
However, Mahomes saw the same two deep safety look most of last week against the Bills defense, finishing with 378 passing yards and three touchdowns. He settled for what the defense gave him, not throwing a pass over 20 air yards, and let his receivers do the work after the catch.
It will be imperative for the Bengals defense to make sure handed tackles to eliminate the damage Chiefs receivers can do with the ball as well as keep Mahomes from reaching his playoff dominance.
Tre Flowers, Jessie Bates, Vonn Bell, Logan Wilson vs. Travis Kelce
Cincinnati’s defense had struggled against the tight end position leading up to the first meeting when they would face the league’s best pass-catcher at the position in Kelce.
Kelce started hot, but like the Chiefs offense, was limited in the second half. He finished with five receptions for 25 yards and one touchdown.
The All-Pro will see coverage from Flowers, Bates, Bell, and Wilson. Flowers was the best defender against Kelce in Week 17 and has stepped into a tight-end stopping role. He’s used mostly on third downs in one-on-one situations with opposing tight ends.
“[Tre] Flowers has done a nice job in that role,” Lou Anarumo said. “The more guys can do, the more it helps our defense. Tre's been a great addition now for three quarters of the season.”
Kelce’s size and athleticism draws extra attention, but his football IQ and chemistry with Mahomes gives an extra dimension to what makes Kelce special. He helped assemble the Chiefs game-tying drive with :13 left to send the Divisional Round into overtime. He would then catch the game-winning touchdown.
There are many areas that teams can prepare for, but there are a few teams which cannot and this is one of them.
Trey Hendrickson vs. Orlando Brown Jr.
Brown didn’t play in Week 17 after suffering a calf injury during warmups.
He's been a solid addition for the Chiefs this season as Kansas City has reaped the benefit of the trade with Baltimore. He’s allowed one sack against the Steelers and Bills defenses this postseason. He posted the highest Pro Football Focus grade for an offensive lineman last week (80.7).
Hendrickson has caused one turnover in each playoff game. The defensive end was the culprit for five turnovers during the season by pressure, tied for first in the league.
Hendrickson's speed could give Brown problems. He uses his speed to turn the corner or push an offensive lineman backwards to win at the line of scrimmage. Brown has all the tangibles desired in a tackle, but can show heavy feet. Hendrickson should be able to use that to his advantage.
Quinton Spain, Trey Hopkins, and Kakeem Adenijii vs. Chris Jones
Protecting Burrow is going to be key if the Bengals are going to advance to the Super Bowl. The offensive line won’t see the same looks the Titans showed to result in nine sacks and pressure all game long, but the concerning issue for the Bengals is that most of the pressure came with just a four-man rush.
Jones had two sacks, two tackles for loss, and three quarterback hits in Week 17. The Chiefs had a total of four sacks in the game.
Jones plays at different positions on the line, but will see the majority of his snaps against Spain, Hopkins, and Adenijii. Jones found success against all three players in the first matchup.
Despite Burrow being the most sacked quarterback in the NFL with the pressures that come with it, he has still put the Bengals in position to win. The offensive line’s performance doesn’t need to be perfect against the Chiefs pass rush, but well enough to give Burrow time to find his receivers downfield.
Chidobe Awuzie vs. Tyreek Hill
Awuzie won this battle in the regular season, holding Hill to 31 yards on eight targets. The speedster finished the game with six catches for 40 yards on ten targets. Hill is a yards after catch monster and was contained for a majority of the game.
Heading into the AFC Championship game, both players are coming off different games. Awuzie played his worst game of the season against A.J. Brown in Nashville, meanwhile Hill put up 150 receiving yards, including a 64-yard catch and run in the final 90 seconds of the regulation.
Awuzie and the defense will have to have a similar game plan to Hill as they did in the previous matchup. They cannot let him reach the second and third levels of the defense or else they won’t be able to stop him.
Bengals Offense vs. Arrowhead Stadium Crowd Noise
The Bengals turned up the volume at practice this week to ready themselves for the crowd noise in Kansas City.
Arrowhead Stadium and Lumen Field (home of the Seattle Seahawks) are notoriously known to be the loudest stadiums in the NFL. Arrowhead holds the Guinness World Record for the loudest outdoor sports stadium at 142.2 decibels.
Burrow has played in front of loud crowds before quarterbacking at different SEC stadiums in college, but will the offensive line and skill players be able to hear snap counts or audibles from their quarterback? They will likely have to use silent counts throughout the game.
“We'll be prepared for it [the crowd noise],” offensive coordinator Brian Callahan said. “Communication's got to be great. You've got to keep your poise when it gets loud.”
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