Key Matchups: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Will Cincinnati's playoff drought end on Saturday?

The Bengals are making their first playoff appearance since the 2015 season as they host the Raiders on Saturday night, the team that started their winless playoff drought 31 years ago.

These two teams met in Week 11 of the regular season. The game was close through three quarters until the Bengals pulled away in the fourth quarter to win 32-13. Joe Mixon carried the ball for 123 yards and two scores, while the defense came up with big stops, including two fourth quarter turnovers.

It's time for round two on Wildcard Weekend. Both teams have been in a playoff mode for weeks to secure their spots in the postseason. Cincinnati won three of their last four games to clinch the AFC North, whereas Las Vegas won four-straight to sneak in as the fifth seed.

The Bengals are favored by 5.5 according to the SI Sportsbook, but anything can happen in a playoff atmosphere. Cincinnati needs to take control early and not let up to avoid continuing their playoff rut. 

Let’s take a look at the key matchups that will likely determine the winner of Saturday's game. 

Isaiah Prince vs. Maxx Crosby

Slowing down the Raiders pass rush is the x-factor in this game. Cincinnati’s offensive line has battled some of the NFL’s top pass rushers this season, including T.J. Watt, Myles Garrett, Nick Bosa and Joey Bosa, plus they faced Yannick Ngakoue and Crosby in Week 11.

Crosby has a league-leading 81 quarterback pressures according to NextGen Stats. Ngakoue is close behind with 71 pressures. Crosby’s added eight sacks and Ngakoue has ten.

Jonah Williams will line up with Ngakoue, leaving Prince against Crosby as the biggest mismatch of the game. 

Crosby is a jack of all trades on the edge. He can beat you inside or outside or on a bullrush. His ability to get off the line and speed have been the foundation to his dominance, while his strength and power allow him to disrupt opposing teams’ backfields.

Oh my god Maxx Crosby hit the euro spin again pic.twitter.com/n6c16abxIO

— mike (@bengals_sans) November 22, 2021

Prince will be making his fifth start of the season. The young tackle will need to ensure his footwork doesn’t skip a beat if he wants to keep up with Crosby. Expect to see a number of tight end or double tight end sets to help combat Crosby (and Ngakoue) with chips or double teams.

Joe Burrow has taken 51 sacks this season, which is the most in the NFL. He’s been able to avoid a number of them with his legs and rolling out of the pocket. However, if Prince and Williams don’t hold up against Crosby and Ngakoue, Burrow could be in for a long game.

Advantage: Crosby

Joe Mixon vs. Denzel Perryman

Not much was going right for the Bengals’ offense heading into halftime of the first meeting outside of their lone touchdown drive. They couldn’t get momentum going and Burrow was under constant pressure.

Zac Taylor made the halftime adjustment to run the ball, which created a new spark in the second half on their way to victory. With the impact of Crosby and Ngakoue, Brian Callahan knows how important it will be for Cincinnati to get Joe Mixon and the run game going.

"We have to be able to run the ball like we did last time against these guys. You can't drop back 40 times against them," Callahan said. "You have to run at them, you have to run away from them." 

Mixon will be a large part of their game plan to attack a defense who has given up 114 yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry. If he can establish a ground game off the bat, it will wear down the defense and open up the passing game for Burrow.

Denzel Perryman is an overlooked player on this Raiders’ defense. The linebacker leads the team 154 total tackles, 38 more than any other player on the team. He had 12 tackles and two tackles for loss against the Bengals earlier in the season.

He is third in both run stops and stop rate among all qualifying linebackers per NextGen Stats. Perryman has the instinct to read the play and hit the lane full speed to make the tackle. Mixon called Perryman a “monster” this week in respect to his strength to stop the run. 

The Raiders did lose a key member of their run defense in Darius Philon last week to a torn patellar tendon. 

Mixon could be in for another big day as he has torn apart with 100+ yard performances in each of his three games he has played against the Raiders. 

Advantage: Mixon

Related: All Bengals Staff Makes Picks for Wild Card Matchup Against Raiders

Jessie Bates/Vonn Bell vs. Darren Waller

Waller is one of the NFL’s best tight ends, despite having a down year and missing a large chunk of the second half of the season with a knee injury.

He had his best performance of the season against the Bengals for seven catches and 116 yards. Waller’s big plays were in the middle of the field with the exception of slant outside with a catch and run up along the sideline.

Last week was Waller’s first game back since Week 12. Derek Carr targeted him nine times, but he came away with just two catches. Carr will continue to look in Waller’s direction with one of his favorite targets back in the lineup.

Waller is a big tight end at 6-6 and he moves like a wide receiver. He has great hands and makes contested catches with his size.

Jessie Bates believes the Bengals have a versatile secondary to defend Waller and the tight end position. Vonn Bell, Bates and even Tre Flowers could go against Waller on Saturday night. 

Although they did struggle with Waller previously and other tight ends such as George Kittle and Mark Andrews, they held Travis Kelce to just five catches on seven targets for 25 yards and one touchdown in Week 17.

A similar game plan with Waller to how Cincinnati made Kelce a non-factor could be a difference maker in slowing the Las Vegas offense down.

Advantage: Waller

Trey Hendrickson vs. Kolton Miller

This matchup may be the most underrated of the game.

Hendrickson is just as much of a problem as Crosby is. He is second behind Crosby with 79 pressures, but has 14 sacks (six more than Crosby).

His explosive first step can make lineman trip in their set allowing him to blow by them to get to the quarterback. Hendrickson not only has speed, but power to drive linemen back.

Miller has been Carr’s anchor on a below average offensive line. He earned a 84.2 grade from Pro Football Focus, allowing just four sacks and 34 pressures from 730 pass-blocking snaps.

Hendrickson had one sack and forced a fumble against Miller in Week 11, but Miller was able to move with and shadow Hendrickson throughout the game. Miller’s strong suits are his athleticism and feet.

Outside of Miller, no Raider offensive linemen graded higher than a 65 overall according to PFF. Hendrickson will take most of the attention in the Raiders’ pass protection, which could open up opportunities for Sam Hubbard, D.J. Reader, and the rest of the defensive line.

Advantage: Hendrickson

Mike Hilton vs. Hunter Renfrow

Renfrow has emerged as Carr’s favorite target, especially when Waller was sidelined with his knee injury.

He’s reliable as he’s hauled in 103-of-128 targets (80%). Renfrow was just two catches shy of breaking Jerry Rice’s record for most receptions by a Raiders wide receiver in a season (104) and five catches from breaking Waller’s overall Raiders receptions record (107).

Renfrow is arguably the best slot route runner in the NFL. He’s unguardable within 10 yards off the line of scrimmage as his release and quick feet allow him to create separation to get open.

Hilton praised Renfrow before the first contest, comparing him to Wes Welker.

The Bengals secondary held Renfrow to four catches for 30 yards previously. A great chunk of the Raiders’ offense runs through Renfrow. 

Advantage: Renfrow

Ja’Marr Chase vs. Casey Hayward Jr./Nate Hobbs/Brandon Facyson

Chase did not light up the stat sheet in their November contest. He had three catches for 32 yards and one touchdown. He saw coverage from Hayward, Hobbs, and Facyson throughout the game with help over the top from Tre’Von Moehring.

The rookie will likely receive a similar game plan against him, but should be in for a bigger day with the Bengals’ offense operating at more of an explosive rate this time around.

Between the pressure they can put on the quarterback and Raiders' Cover 3 defense, Chase could see more slants or quick throws. Part of what makes Chase so dynamic is his ability to catch and run. He's third in the NFL with 651 yards after catch.

The impact Chase has on the game is greater than the stat sheet. Chase could have another game similar to Week 11, but the Bengals still be in position to win due to their other offensive weapons in Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, C.J. Uzomah, and Mixon. 

Advantage: Chase

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