NFL.com Data Analyst Cynthia Frelund Predicts Bengals 2024 Win Total Ceiling/Floor

Cincinnati is projected to win at least 10 games.

Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner (6) is wrapped up by Cincinnati Bengals linebacker Logan Wilson (55) at State Farm Stadium in Glendale on Oct. 8, 2023. / Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

CINCINNATI — NFL.com data analyst Cynthia Frelund released her projected wins for each AFC team and has the Bengals third behind Kansas City and Baltimore with 10.4 wins this season.

They had a pretty wide range in her numbers, with a floor of 7.5 wins and a ceiling of 12.6.

"I told you earlier that Cincinnati's fourth-place schedule drove value in what I calculate to be the most challenging division in the NFL," Frelund wrote. "Ahead of the preseason, the Bengals were my model’s pick to win the division. This tells you how much Ja'Marr Chase’s hold-in impacts this team. One of my favorite notes on the Bengals is that adding DT Sheldon Rankins and safeties Vonn Bell and Geno Stone this offseason drove the win-share projection for the whole defense up three games."

Chase is the big question mark remaining for Cincinnati. He obviously caps the Bengals win total if he doesn't play across multiple weeks without a new contract. Still, there is time to get a deal done before too late, but not much.

Cincinnati gets into its normal game-week practice schedule today.

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