Six Takeaways From the Bengals' Huge Victory Over the Chiefs

Cincinnati is 8-4 and has won four-straight games.

Mike Santagata | Dec 5, 2022

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Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals just won the biggest game of their season. The Chiefs came into Cincinnati and had this game circled after losing two games to the Bengals last season.

Things seemed harder for the Chiefs throughout the game. In the end, the Bengals walk away with their third-straight victory over what could be their top competitor in the AFC. Let’s get into some of our takeaways.

MVP Performance From Joe Burrow

The entire day it felt like Joe Burrow was on a different level. The Chiefs threw everything at him from dropping eight to Cover 2, they blitzed him and it did not matter. Burrow toasted absolutely everything they threw at him.

In a statement MVP-level performance, Burrow finished 25-of-31 for 286 yards and two touchdowns. What’s incredible is that this game should have been even better. Tyler Boyd dropped a touchdown with no one within 10 yards of him. He also had a a miss-tracked ball from Hayden Hurst 40 yards downfield and another drop from Samaje Perine. If those are completed, he’s 28-of-31 for well over 300 yards and three touchdowns. However, even without those miscues, he still was incredible. He added quite a bit of value with his legs as well tacking on 46 yards and a touchdown, including the longest run of the day. He was a big reason for this game only ending with one sack. He was fantastic moving within the pocket and getting the ball out perfectly on time.

When taking a look at some of his advanced statistics, it sticks out that he outperformed Patrick Mahomes in every aspect. He had a higher EPA and EPA per play as well as a higher completion percentage over expected. Burrow ended the day with 0.41 EPA per play which is in the 89th percentile. It’s that high despite the dropped touchdown and missed explosive play which is amazing. The 19.3 EPA added over the course of the game is in the 94th percentile. Finally, the completion percentage over expected ended at 10.6 which is in the 87th percentile. That’s a lot of words to say that Joe Burrow was simply spectacular. He outplayed the MVP favorite on National television and officially vaulted himself into the race.

Germaine Pratt Saves The Day

After a disappointing field goal on a long drive, the Bengals were still down four points and the Chiefs had the ball. If Kansas City was able to go up two scores, then this game would've become very difficult for the Bengals. They never got that two score advantage because of Germaine Pratt.

Travis Kelce made a huge play up the middle, but as he was fighting for more yardage, Pratt raked at the ball and pulled it free. Not only did he force a fumble on Kelce, but he also recovered it. This play on its own added 10% to the Bengals' win percentage according to Ben Baldwin’s model. It felt like the turning point of the game. Pratt has seriously leveled up this season and is now more of a 1B to Logan Wilson’s 1A. The Bengals; linebacker duo is one of the most underrated units in the NFL and they showed it on Sunday.

Samaje Perine Steps Up Again

Samaje Perine has stepped up in every game during Joe Mixon’s absence. He’s a strong, high effort running back who always fights for additional yardage. To go with that, he’s been a solid receiver and as always a great pass protector. He makes a strong case for having a larger role than before even when Mixon gets healthy. Mixon is still the starter and leader, but there is no reason for the Bengals to have Mixon in the top 3 for carries. The Bengals have a nice pair of backs and they should use them both down the stretch to keep them both fresh for a possible super bowl run.

The AFC Still Runs Through Cincinnati

This team started slow, but the Bengals showed why they are the defending AFC champs yesterday. Beating the number one seed again for a third time in a row just shows that this team can not only hang with anyone but that they are one of the best teams in the NFL. It’s hard to say that the defending AFC champions are not up there as the favorite to win the AFC. If they can win the division and host a playoff game or two, then everything becomes even more likely. It’s incredible that we have reached this point after all of the talking points in September and October, but this is a team that hits its stride down the stretch. If they can stay hot, there is no reason that they won’t be making another run for their first Lombardi trophy.

Hats Off To The Offensive Line

Burrow hardly faced pressure in this game. What a day to step up for the offensive line that has been inconsistent this season. They did a great job generating displacement in the run game as well too. Chris Jones has 10 sacks this year and never had his name called during the broadcast.

Rookie Cordell Volson stepped up in a big way as the perceived “weak link.” The entire interior of the offensive line played extremely well, but Volson was the guy who needed to hold his own and he more than did that. It’s hard to remember, but he was not supposed to be the starter this season with Jackson Carman taking nearly all the first team reps this offseason. Volson outplayed him in training camp and hasn't looked back.

There is no reason to look for a replacement because they found a starting level guard. Credit to Ted Karras for almost always having this team in the correct protection. Alex Cappa seemed to be the best of the interior guys considering his movement in the run game. The tackles shut down the Chiefs' edge rushers and the rest is a wrap. Even the tight ends blocked well highlighted by Mitchell Wilcox blasting open a hole on a wham block on Jones. Everyone makes sure to tell this offensive line that they aren’t playing well when they perform under expectations. Let’s make sure to give them praise when they play above expectations as well.

Playoff Watch

The Bengals jumped a huge amount after the big win yesterday. The Bengals are now at a 90% chance to make the playoffs according to FiveThirtyEight’s model. This game solidified that they control their own destiny.

They’re also at a 43% chance to win the division. Even though they are clearly the best team in the AFC North at this point, the Ravens have such an easy schedule that it may not matter. The Bengals also jumped from basically non-existent to a 9% chance to take the No. 1 seed.

If the Bengals can finally beat the Browns in Week 14, then they jump to a 97% chance to make the playoffs, a 52% chance at winning the division, and a 12% chance at the #1 seed. Then if the Steelers can defeat the Ravens, then they move up to a 66% chance to win the division. The division could come down to that Week 18 matchup against Baltimore in Cincinnati. The Ravens will most likely hold the tie-breaker with division record, but if the teams are at the same record, then it’s the Bengals division to lose. They control their own destiny and I would not be surprised if they are hosting a playoff game in January.

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