Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots Week 1 Best Bets

The Bengals host the Patriots on Sunday.

Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson (91) stands on the sideline in the fourth quarter of the NFL game between Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati on Sunday, Jan. 7, 2024. / Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

Week 1 is finally upon us and it’s time to lock in those Bengals vs. Patriots bets. While it’s exciting to be able to place our weekly bets, the reality is we don’t yet have weeks worth of relevant team data to back all of our picks. While all gambling is just that, a gamble, the first week or two of the NFL is even more of a crapshoot. We won’t let that stop us from having some fun.

Each week I will go through a few of my favorite props with some 'Bet Backers' (i.e. data) to support each play. To add to the fun, we'll throw in a 'Just For Fun(ds) Parlay:' an extreme longshot bet with a high return on investment.

Here are some bets I like this week:.

Zack Moss OVER 46.5 Rush Yards (-114 FanDuel):

I locked this in on Monday at 45.5 yards, but would still play this at the current line of 46.5 yards. There is a lot of projection in this prop as well, as we don’t yet know exactly what the Moss/Chase Brown split may look like. However, Zac Taylor has lauded Moss’ ability to run out of shotgun as well as his pass-blocking chops. Last season the Bengals ran 67% of their rush plays out of the shotgun formation which bodes well for Moss. With most sportsbooks placing the Bengals at 8+ point favorites, you would expect the running game to be a key component. 

My Bet Backers:

• In games where Moss saw 10+ carries last season, he eclipsed 50 yards in 7/8.
• Over the last two seasons, the Bengals have won 11 games by two or more scores. They average 27.6 carries in those wins. 
• Former Bengal running back Joe Mixon surpassed 47 rush yards in 19/20 games over the last two seasons when seeing 13 or more carries.

If the Bengals are to win by two scores, I expect Moss to receive enough opportunity to hit the over on this prop. If you feel even more confident, the alt rushing line of 50+ is +102 on FanDuel.

Trey Hendrickson OVER 0.75 Sacks (-130 DraftKings):

Coming off a stellar 2023 campaign where he notched 17.5 sacks, Trey Hendrickson is poised to pick up right where he left off to kick off 2024. 

My Bet Backers:

• Hendrickson notched a full sack in 12/17 games last season
• The 2023 Patriots had the fifth-shortest Time to Pressure in the NFL (2.5 seconds). 
• Many outlets have the Patriots ranked as one of the worst offensive lines in the league this season, including PFF.
• The Pats O-Line has had their issues in camp and in preseason so far.

With a presumably positive game script (playing with a lead and forcing the Patriots to pass), Hendrickson should be able to get to Brissett at least once in Week 1.

Hunter Henry OVER 25.5 Yards (-114 FanDuel):

The Patriots lack a true WR1 which should clear the way for Hunter Henry as a top target. The second-leading receiver for New England last year, Henry’s very conservative 25.5 prop is a tempting line to attack.

My Bet Backers:

• Henry’s receptions prop is set at 2.5 and juiced to the over (-140). Last season in games where he caught at least three passes, he eclipsed 25.5 yards in 7/8.
• The Bengals allowed ten tight ends to hit this line last season. 
• In 2023, the Cincinnati defense allowed 10/14 tight ends that had at least three receptions surpass this line.
• Jacoby Brissett targeted the tight end position on 36% of his pass attempts in his last season as a starter (2022). The offensive coordinator for that team: Alex Van Pelt. The offensive coordinator for the 2024 New England Patriots: Alex Van Pelt.

These are three of my favorite bets that I will be playing at straight bets. You can choose to parlay any combination, play higher alternates if you're bullish, or fade me altogether. However, good luck NOT playing this fun longshot in our first rendition of the 'Just for Fun(ds) Parlay.'

Just for Fun(ds) Parlay

This week, we are taking some of the above analysis and combining it with a Iosivas touchdown hunch that I have had for weeks. Altogether, you have a +11501 on FanDuel.

For additional 'unofficial' bets throughout the week, make sure you are following Taylor on X.

*DISCLAIMER* This is not intended to be betting advice, rather these are some props I like and will be placing my money on. While I use data and research to support my picks, there is no such thing as a sure bet. Always remember to only bet amounts you are comfortable losing.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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