Week 16 Best Bets: Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns

Taylor Cornell | 12 Hours Ago

Oct 20, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) celebrates his touchdown over Cleveland Browns cornerback Greg Newsome II (0) during the third quarter at Huntington Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-Imagn Images / Scott Galvin-Imagn Images

As the season winds down, we have a "tremendous opportunity" (Zac Taylor voice) to finish strong. Looking back to last week, we were this close to a big week: Tee Higgins needed just one more catch and 12 more yards to cash our +800. Tony Pollard was tackled for a five yard loss on his final carry to drop him below the 50 rushing yard line and sinking our +108 ticket. Alas, we took a -1.45 unit hit and look to get back on track this week.

Here are my favorite bets for Week 16 Browns vs Bengals:

Game Total Points UNDER 46.5 + Bengals Moneyline (+128 DraftKings)

The string of ‘must win’ games continues for the Bengals this week, and although the offense has been humming along for the better part of the past six games the data tells us to take the under.

My Bet Backers:

• The Bengals are 8.5 point favorites Sunday and have won five of their past seven games when favored by at least that many points.
• The game totals in Browns games have gone over 46.5 in just 5/14 games this season, and since 2020 both teams have combined to score less than 47 points in 6/9 matchups.
• In three career starts, Dorian Thompson-Robinson has led the Browns to 3, 13, and 12 total points.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson OVER 33.5 Pass Attempts + Jerry Jeudy UNDER 62.5 Receiving Yards (+335 DraftKings)

I put half a unit on this play on Friday with David Njoku’s status still questionable. I feel even better about this play if Njoku is able to suit up and steal some targets from Jeudy.

My Bet Backers:

• In his three previous starts, Thompson-Robinson has attempted 36, 43, and 29 passes. In 45% of the snap against Cincinnati earlier this season, he attempted 24 passes.
• The Bengals have won six games this season by at least seven points. In five of those games the opposing passer has eclipsed 34 pass attempts, with an average of 39 pass attempts.
• The leader receiver in Thompson-Robinson’s previous starts has yet to eclipse 60 yards, with David Njoku being the leading pass catcher in two of those three games.

Mike Gesicki OVER 2.5 Receptions + OVER 29.5 Receiving Yards (+108 DraftKings)

Tanner Hudson will be absent this week with an injury, providing Gesicki with perhaps a couple of additional targets against Cleveland.

My Bet Backers:

• The Browns have struggled of late covering opposing tight ends. In the past seven games, they have allowed 6, 4, 4, 7, 14, 4, and 10 receptions to the tight end position, as well as an average of 63 receiving yards to the position group.  

Just For Fun(ds) Parlay 

Ja'Marr Chase is chasing records and Joe Burrow knows it. There may be some extra incentive against a team we know these guys don’t like. With Chase just 11 receptions and three touchdowns short of setting single-season franchise records, he may get fed and fed some more against Cleveland.

Will We Finish Strong? / Just for Fun(ds) Parlay Week 16

For additional 'unofficial' bets throughout the week, make sure you are following Taylor on X.

*DISCLAIMER* This is not intended to be betting advice, rather these are some props I like and will be placing my money on. While I use data and research to support my picks, there is no such thing as a sure bet. Always remember to only bet amounts you are comfortable losing.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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