Week 2 Best Bets: Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals face the Chiefs in Week 2. Here are the best bets to make in the key AFC game.

Oct 8, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) and wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) against the Arizona Cardinals in the second half at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

It was a rough Week 1 for the Bengals on the field and an equally disappointing week for us with the sportsbooks. Zack Moss came up three yards short of his prop, despite an effective 4.9 yards per carry. Trey Hendrickson lead the NFL in Quick Pressures of 3.0 seconds or less (5) and yet failed to notch a sack. We jump back on the horse this week though and look to win some money.

Week 1: 0-3, -3.0 units

While we try to not overreact to Week 1 alone, here are a few bets I have made:

Joe Burrow OVER 231.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel):

Burrow looked anything but comfortable in Week 1 en route to just 164 passing yards. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is widely recognized as one of the best at disguising coverages and blitzes. And yet, I think Burrow will bounce back.

My Bet Backers:

• Burrow has averaged 37 pass attempts in his four previous matchups against Kansas City. In his career, Burrow has exceeded this line in 21-of-25 games with 37 or more attempts.
• Since 2021, Burrow has thrown for less than 200 yards in a game eight times. In the game following, he has eclipsed 230 yards in 6-of-8 and averaged over 300 yards passing.

Joe Burrow OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+120 DraftKings):

This is a logical prop to bet on if you are on board with Burrow’s passing yards prop mentioned above. Personally, I am playing this in a parlay with the aforementioned Burrow passing yards prop. I am not playing this as a straight bet, as the Chiefs have been tough recently against pass offenses allowing just 4-of-18 to throw for 2+ touchdowns at Arrowhead since the start of 2022. 

My Bet Backers:

• In games Burrow throws for 230+ yards, he has 2+ passing touchdowns in 27/33 (82%).

Game Total UNDER 48.0 Points (-108 DraftKings)

The Bengals haven’t played in many games of late with a point total this high, but when they have the data has been convincing. If we think the run defense may continue to struggle, the number of drives each team has may be further limited as well.

My Bet Backers:

• Since 2022, the Bengals have played in in only seven games with an Over/Under of even 46.5 or more. The under has hit in 6-of-7 games.
• In that same timeframe, the Chiefs have played in 19 games with a point total of 48 or more. The under has hit in 13-of-19, including in 8-of-10 at Arrowhead.

Mike Gesicki OVER 21.5 Receiving Yards (-110 DraftKings):

I waited anxiously for Gesicki’s props to hit this week and on Thursday they finally did. I truly believe the Bengals big slot/tight end is due for a nice performance against Kansas City which has me interested in his yard props as well as Anytime Touchdown (+340 DraftKings). You can choose to play one or both as singles bets, or parlay on DraftKings at +415 odds.

My Bet Backers:

• Gesicki saw four targets in his debut, even while sharing the tight end pass catching duties with Tanner Hudson (three targets) in a game where Burrow didn’t pass a ton (29 attempts).
• Gesicki was a bobbled catch away from a 33-yard, one touchdown performance last week and should continue to be a Red Zone target as he was throughout training camp.
• The Chiefs defense allowed Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely to reel off 9/111/1 last week, with 79 of those yards coming from the slot. Gesicki saw 100% of his targets in Week 1 from the slot.

Just for Fun(ds) Parlay

Last week we hit just 1/5 legs on a +11000, but we're going to act like a defensive back that got torched on a go-route and move on to the next play. Now, you could parlay all of the above for a cool +3300 or so on DraftKings, but I am going to diversify a bit. Kelce is scoreless in 9 of his last 11 games overall, but has scored in 3/5 versus Cincinnati. Are we really going to be shocked when he gets one of those shovel passes from within the 5-yard line? Rashee Rice is averaging nine targets and nearly 90 receiving yards per game in his last 7 regular season games. Ja'Marr Chase balling out against a team he absolutely hates? I'll take it.

For additional 'unofficial' bets throughout the week, make sure you are following Taylor on X.

*DISCLAIMER* This is not intended to be betting advice, rather these are some props I like and will be placing my money on. While I use data and research to support my picks, there is no such thing as a sure bet. Always remember to only bet amounts you are comfortable losing.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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