Week 3 Best Bets: Cincinnati Bengals vs Washington Commanders

These are some of the best bets to make as the Bengals take on the Commanders on Monday Night Football

Sep 15, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Andrei Iosivas (80) celebrates with tight end Mike Gesicki (88) after an interception during the first half against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The Bengals weren't the only team that improved drastically from Week 1 to Week 2, as we shook off the winless first week and profited in Week 2. All but one of the official bets hit, and we'll look to build off that momentum to more winnings this week.

Week 1: 0-3, -3.0 units

Week 2: 3-1, +1.9 units

As the Bengals welcome the Washington Commanders to town, here are some of the props I will be playing in Week 3:

Jayden Daniels OVER 46.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)

For two weeks now, I have foolishly faded the opposing team’s rushing props, but not this week. Brian Robinson, Jr. is a decent play as well, but there is a chance he could get scripted out of opportunities if the Commanders are playing from behind. Meanwhile, Daniels will be at the helm the entire way no matter the score.

My Bet Backers:

• In their Week 1 loss where they were also road underdogs, Daniels ran for 88 yards on 16 carries.
• In the Week 1 game, Daniels scrambled six times when under pressure according to Pro Football Focus. Through two weeks, he leads all quarterbacks in scrambles under pressure.
• Trey Hendrickson leads the NFL in quarterback pressure percentage (22.0%).

Jayden Daniels OVER 9.5 Rush Attempts (-108 FanDuel)

Daniels is 2-for-2 against this line so far this season, and Week 3 should make it 3-for-3. You can play as a singles bet, or parlay on DraftKings with rush yards for +108 odds.

My Bet Backers:

• The  Bengals have allowed the fifth-most rush attempts among all teams in the NFL.
• The Commanders have the ninth-highest run rate through two weeks.
• Even when trailing by more than seven points, the Commanders have favored a run play on 51.2% of their plays.

Terry McLaurin UNDER 20.5 Longest Reception (-113 FanDuel)

McLaurin has struggled to start 2024 and will now be matched up against a Bengals' secondary that has been strong through two games.

My Bet Backers:

• Of his eight receptions this season, his longest has been just 12 yards.
• The Bengals defense has allowed just one pass play of 21+ yards through two games.
• Jayden Daniels has the second-lowest Average Depth of Target this season at 5.2 yards.

Austin Seibert OVER 1.5 Field Goals Made (+100 DraftKings)

Taking a kicker prop may sound boring, but the data behind this one makes it a strong play.

My Bet Backers:

• The Bengals defense has allowed touchdowns on 33.3% of opponent red zone visits, good for 8th in the league.
• The Bengals have allowed at least two field goals in both games this season.
• The Commanders had six (!) drives stall out in the red zone last week and result in field goals.

Mike Gesicki OVER 27.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)

Gesicki hit for us last week so we return to that well in Week 3. 

My Bet Backers:

• The Commanders rank 31st in Yards After Catch over Expectation Allowed and Passing Yards Per Play Allowed.
• Gesicki currently leads the team in targets (13) and Yards After Catch (58).
• The Commanders allowed two receivers to surpass 30 receiving yards from the slot (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin). Gesicki leads the Bengals in slot receptions and yards.
• 29-of-35 receptions allowed by Washington have been <10 air yards. All 10 of Gesicki’s catches have been under 10 air yards.

Just For Fun(ds) Parlay

Admittedly, this is more of a vibes-based longshot. With the Commanders struggling to stop the pass and Joe Burrow seemingly rounding into shape, grabbing his alt line for passing yards and touchdowns is a risk I am willing to take. To take this parlay to the next level, we throw in some Jermaine Burton love. We know Burton only needs one target to catch a long touchdown and he seems to be gaining trust with his quarterback each week.

For additional 'unofficial' bets throughout the week, make sure you are following Taylor on X.

*DISCLAIMER* This is not intended to be betting advice, rather these are some props I like and will be placing my money on. While I use data and research to support my picks, there is no such thing as a sure bet. Always remember to only bet amounts you are comfortable losing.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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