Week 5 Best Bets: Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens

Taylor Cornell | Oct 4, 2024

Sep 15, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Cincinnati Bengals tight end Erick All Jr. (83) is tackled by Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton (32) during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The Bengals weren’t the only big winners last week, as we hit a number of bets and saw our highest weekly profit so far this season. Had Tee Higgins caught a touchdown, we would have cashed our +1200 lotto as well, but alas.

Week 4: 2-1, +3.3 units

Reapplying the same format as last week’s success, here are some of my favorite props for Bengals - Ravens:

Lamar Jackson OVER 204.5 Passing Yards + Zay Flowers OVER 48.5 Receiving Yards (+173 FanDuel)

While these two players have not consistently hit these lines this season, a more competitive game should allow for a somewhat balanced attack for Baltimore. 

My Bet Backers:

• Jackson has hit the over in 3/4 against Cincinnati since 2021.
• In the last two seasons in games Lamar has passed for at least 205 yards, Zay Flowers has eclipsed 50 yards in 10/12 and averaged over 70 yards per game. 
• Flowers leads the Ravens with a 25% target share.
• WR1’s against Cincinnati have recorded 75, 100, and 83 receiving yards the last three weeks, respectively.

Derrick Henry OVER 85.5 Rushing Yards + Anytime Touchdown (+139 FanDuel)

I have yet to take an opposing running back’s yardage prop this season, even though the Bengals have allowed 4/4 starting backs to exceed their line. This week, I will give in to the obvious and jump aboard the Derrick Henry train. 

My Bet Backers:

• Henry has game logs of 84, 151, and 199 rushing yards his last three games. 
• Leading rushers versus the Bengals have amassed 120, 90, 33, and 104 yards, and 3/4 have scored a touchdown.
• The Ravens run the ball 66% of the time when playing with a lead, so barring a Bengals blowout, the opportunity should be there.

Joe Burrow OVER 251.5 Passing Yards + OVER 22.5 Passing Completions (+104 DraftKings)

In a game where seemingly the Bengals running game may struggle to get footing, the outcome very well may rely on Joe Burrow’s right shoulder.

My Bet Backers:

• Burrow has exceeded this yardage twice this season, and subsequently exceeded this line for completions in those games as well.
• The Ravens defense has allowed the two quarterbacks that attempted at least 30 passes to complete 23 or more, and the current line for Burrow pass attempts sits at 34.5.
• Burrow has completed at least 23 passes in his last six full games versus Baltimore.
• The Ravens allow the 3rd-most passing yards per game on Deep throws of 20+ air yards (61.5).

Just For Fun(ds) Parlay

While a loss is a loss, we were ONE leg away from hitting our +1200 slip last week. This week, we put all our hopes and dreams on Erick All. As his usage continues to tick upward and players and coaches alike praise his play, a breakout game feels imminent. The running game could struggle to get going against a tough rush defense, but I don’t expect the Bengals to completely abandon 12-personnel this week. I expect All to continue to see a fair share of snaps and a play action pass at the goal line gets him his first professional touchdown.

For additional 'unofficial' bets throughout the week, make sure you are following Taylor on X.

*DISCLAIMER* This is not intended to be betting advice, rather these are some props I like and will be placing my money on. While I use data and research to support my picks, there is no such thing as a sure bet. Always remember to only bet amounts you are comfortable losing.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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