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Stat of the Jay: At His Current Pace, How Long Would Ja'Marr Chase Have To Play To Break Jerry Rice's NFL Records?

Jay Morrison

Bengals Ja'Marr Chase (1) leaps over a Steelers player during their game against the Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on Saturday January 4, 2025. The Bengals lead the game at halftime with a score of 13-7.
Bengals Ja'Marr Chase (1) leaps over a Steelers player during their game against the Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on Saturday January 4, 2025. The Bengals lead the game at halftime with a score of 13-7. / Phil Didion/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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CINCINNATI – Ja’Marr Chase is on pace to fulfill his draft night proclamation of breaking all of the Cincinnati Bengals records.

He already owns a few single-game and single-season marks, and he should eclipse Chad Johnson’s career records for receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns by the end of his current mega contract that runs through the 2029 season.

But what about NFL records held by the game’s all-time greats?

Could Chase be on pace to set those?

Not by the end of his four-year, $161 million contract. But he would be on some pretty impressive lists by that time, and he’ll still only be 29 years old.

On his current pace – which is 99 catches, 1356 yards and 12 touchdowns per season – Chase would finish off his current contract with 889 catches, 12,206 yards and 104 touchdowns.

Those 889 catches would be good for 29th place in NFL history.

For the fun of extrapolation, let’s say Chase signs another four-year deal to play through age 33.

By the end of that deal, he would have 1,285 catches, which would be three shy of Jason Witten for fourth on the career list behind Jerry Rice (1,549), Larry Fitzgerald (1,432) and Tony Gonzalez (1,325).

With eight more years at his current pace, Chase would have 16,373 yards, which would be third all time behind Rice (22,895) and Fitzgerald (17,492).

And Chase would be fourth in touchdowns with 152 behind Rice (197), Moss (156) and Terrell Owens (153).

So how long will Chase have to play at his current pace to get those marks?

He would break the record for receptions midway through the 2036 season at age 36.

He wouldn’t top the receiving yards mark until the following 2037 season at age 37.

And it would be late November or early December of that 2037 season when Chase would top 197 career touchdowns.

As great as Chase’s first four seasons in the league have been, it’s crazy to think he would have to maintain this pace for more than another decade to approach what Rice accomplished – and in an era without the passing volume Chase and today’s receivers enjoy.

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Jay Morrison
JAY MORRISON

Jay Morrison covers the Cincinnati Bengals for Bengals On SI. He has been writing about the NFL for nearly three decades. Combining a passion for stats and storytelling, Jay takes readers beyond the field for a unique look at the game and the people who play it. Prior to joining Bengals on SI, Jay covered the Cincinnati Bengals beat for The Athletic, the Dayton Daily News and Pro Football Network.