Stat of the Jay: How Likely Are the Bengals To See Upsets of Big Favorites in Weeks 17, 18?

Jay Morrison | 5 Hours Ago

Oct 16, 2022; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Christian Kirk (13) runs with the ball against Indianapolis Colts cornerback Kenny Moore II (23) in the final play of the game during the second half at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Scheer-Imagn Images / Robert Scheer-Imagn Images

CINCINNATI – Since the 34-27 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 11, the Cincinnati Bengals have not had control of their own playoff path.

Relying on help from others is a dicey enough proposition, but needing underdogs to spring upsets is even more disheartening.

That’s the situation for the Bengals.

Even if they can beat the Denver Broncos on Saturday and the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 18 to finish 9-8, they need three other things to happen:

The Broncos would have to lose at home to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 18.

The Indianapolis Colts would have to lose one of their remaining two games.

The Miami Dolphins would have to win one of their two remaining games.

We won’t know what the betting odds look like for Chiefs-Broncos in Week 18 until we see if Patrick Mahomes and Co. have anything to play for or if they already have locked up the No. 1 seed.

But the Colts are going to favored in both of their remaining games – at the 2-13 New York Giants and at home against the 3-12 Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Colts are 7.5-point favorites against the Giants in Week 17.

Likewise, the Dolphina are going to be favored in their final two games – at the 3-12 Cleveland Browns and at the 4-11 New York Jets.

Miami is a 6.5-point favorite at Cleveland in Week 17.

The good news for the Bengals is weird things happen late in the season.

Remember Andy Dalton to Tyler Boyd in the 2017 finale to knock the Baltimore Ravens, who were 8-point favorites, out of the playoffs?

At least one team favored by 6 points or more has lost its season finale since 2010, when the NFL started putting all divisional matchups in the final weekend of the season.

In that time, teams favored by 6 or more in Week 17 are 103-20. That’s not great. But the Bengals would take a 19.4 percent likelihood that either Dolphins or Colts lose this weekend and then take their chances in Week 18.

On the list of the biggest upsets in Weeks 17 and 18 since the new schedule went into effect in 2021, the Colts appear twice, including a loss as 15-point favorites:

Week 18, 2023: Commanders 26, Cowboys (-7) 6

Week 17, 2022: Cardinals 35, Eagles (-12) 31

Week 18, 2021: Jaguars 26, Colts (-15) 11

Week 18, 2021: Dolphins 33, Patriots (-6) 24

Week 17, 2021: Cardinals 25, Cowboys (-6.5) 22

Week 17, 2021: Raiders 23, Colts (-8) 20

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