Stat of the Jay: Postseason Betting Anomalies in Play Heading Into Wildcard Weekend

Jay Morrison | 20 Hours Ago

Dec 21, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry (22) runs for a gain against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images / Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images

CINCINNATI – The Cincinnati Bengals will not be participating in the postseason again this year, but most of you are still going to watch.

Especially with an AFC North matchup on tap in the Wildcard Round with the Baltimore Ravens hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers.

And it’s not just the divisional relationship that makes that game interesting.

It’s one of three games on the slate that feature a statistical anomaly.

And that number could grow to four of the six games before the weekend.

The reason Pittsburgh-Baltimore is an outlier is because the Ravens are favored by 10 points.

It’s rare to see double-digit point spreads in the postseason.

Since the 1970 merger, there have been 1,104 postseason games. Only 71 (6.4 percent) had a team favored by at least 10 points.

The Buffalo Bills currently are 9-point favorites against the Denver Broncos, so that game could join the list before it kicks off Sunday afternoon.

The 10-point spread is not good news for the Steelers – and possibly the Broncos.

Teams favored by at least 10 in the postseason are 59-12, including 15-1 in the last 16.

However, that lone loss in the last 16 was the 2019 Baltimore Ravens, who were favored by 10 against the Tennessee Titans in the Divisional Round and lost 28-12 at home.

Not only have the heavily favored teams won, they’ve been successful covering the spread.

Teams favored by at least 10 points in the playoffs are 12-4 ATS since the 2010 Divisional Round.

Another thing you don’t see often in the postseason is a road favorite. But there are two instances this weekend.

The Los Angeles Chargers are favored by 3 at the Houston Texans, and the Minnesota Vikings are favored by 1.5 at the Los Angeles Rams.

That’s not good news for the Chargers and the Vikings.

Road favorites are just 3-6 overall and 2-7 ATS in the last nine postseason games, dating back to the 2015 AFC Championship Game.

Since the 1970 merger, there have been just 65 postseason games in which the road team was favored.

Those teams are 32-33 straight up and 26-38-1 ATS.

It’s also worth noting that in the last 14 games with a road favorite, the under is 10-4.

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