Where betting market ranks Bills among NFL teams in 2024 NFL season

Here's how the betting market thinks the Buffalo Bills stack up to their opposition in the 2024 NFL season.

Dec 31, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws the ball / Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

The full 2024 NFL schedule has been released, and with it, betting lines for each game throughout the campaign have been revealed.

Though lines can—and will—shift based on a bevy of factors in the leadup to each individual contest, they, at this juncture, serve as a fairly neutral and objective measure of a team’s quality. The betting market generally favors the perceived better team (that’s what it’s designed to do); looking at each team’s individual game lines sheds a bit of insight into how parties removed from their news cycle and thought bubble view their might.

Ben Baldwin, or @computercowboy on X, constructed a tier list of NFL teams following the schedule release, with each club being sorted into a tier based on the “how many points a team would be favored against a league average opponent on a neutral field.” The Buffalo Bills, despite their offseason maneuvers, are still viewed by the betting market as one of the NFL’s better teams; the club would be favored by 2.5 points against an average team on a neutral field, landing them in Baldwin’s “probably good” tier.

With the schedule out, we now have betting lines for every game.

Here is an objective measure of how good each team is expected to be in 2024 pic.twitter.com/RmCUWlHZuT

— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) May 16, 2024

Related: 2024 NFL Schedule Release Roundup: Everything to know about Bills' 2024 slate

The 2.5 points Buffalo would be favored by over a league-average opponent is the sixth-highest number in the league. Only the San Francisco 49ers (5.2), Kansas City Chiefs (4.3), Baltimore Ravens (4), Baltimore Ravens (2.8), and Detroit Lions (2.6) have higher totals.

The favorable ranking comes despite an offseason in which the Bills saw heavy turnover; the team moved on from stalwart starters like Stefon Diggs, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Tre’Davious White, Mitch Morse, and Gabriel Davis, re-centering the roster around young(er) players with more affordable contracts. Buffalo, while still talented, is objectively not as stout as it’s been in years past; one could reasonably expect to see regression from the club.

That said, quarterback Josh Allen is the great equalizer. He’s one of the league’s premier passers and is the only player in NFL history who has compiled four consecutive seasons of 40 or more total touchdowns; if he’s able to make it five straight in 2024, he could prove this tier list correct.