Bills-Colts preview: Matchups, storylines to watch

Record-setting offense won't be at full strength but defense has grown as team seeks first playoff win under coach Sean McDermott

Rochester Democrat And Chronicle-USA TODAY NETWORK

Not only are the Bills getting to host a playoff game for the first time in this millennium when the Indianapolis Colts visit on Saturday, but the state of New York is allowing them to welcome in nearly 7,000 fans.

That might not seem like much, but in the middle of this coronavirus pandemic, that's a lot better than zero. Besides, you have to walk before you can run.

Also, the Bills Mafia can make 7,000 seem like 70,000.

Here's what they will be watching:

Game Facts

• Who: Indianapolis Colts (11-5) at Bills (13-3)
• What: AFC wild-card round playoff game
• Where: Bills Stadium
• When: 1:05 p.m. Sunday
• TV: CBS
• The spread: Bills favored by 6
• Total points: 51½

Three storylines

1. Offensive records.

The Bills'offense exploded like never before in 2020.

Quarterback Josh Allen set season records for completions (396), passing yards (4,544), completion percentage (69.2), TD passes (37) and quarterback rating (107.2) in leading the Bills to their highest point total (501) in franchise history. They averaged 31.3 points per game.

Wide receiver Stefon Diggs set franchise records for catches (127) and receiving yards (1,525), while Cole Beasley's catch total of 82 ranks eighth in team history.

2. Nearing the end.

Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who helped turn Allen from a complicated project to polished MVP candidate within a span of three seasons, also calls the plays. He will have his pick of head-coaching jobs when this season is over.

The Bills probably just hope he doesn't choose the AFC East rival New York Jets, who have requested permission to interview him.

3. Reich returns.

Colts coach Frank Reich has been beloved in Buffalo ever since engineering the biggest comeback in NFL history in January of 1993.

Reich was their quarterback that day, subbing for the injured Jim Kelly, and led them back from a 35-3 deficit to a 41-38 win in overtime over the former Houston Oilers, now the Tennessee Titans.

"I love Buffalo, will always love Buffalo, will always be a Bills fan," Reich said this week, "except for this Saturday for sure."

Reich's Colts needed the Bills to beat the Miami Dolphins last Sunday just to claim the seventh and final playoff spot in the AFC. So he has even more reason to love the Bills.

Five matchups to watch

1. Bills WR Stefon Diggs vs. Colts CB Xavier Rhodes.

The former Minnesota Vikings teammates will be pivotal to Saturday's outcome.

Diggs came through with his best season ever after being acquired in a trade. Rhodes (6-1, 220) actually owns a size advantage over his 6-0, 190-pound opponent, whom he'll be playing against for the first time.

Diggs also will be trying to push through an oblique strain, so it should be interesting.

2. Bills CB Tre'Davious White vs. Colts WR T.Y. Hilton.

Hilton's numbers (56 catches, 762 yards) are down from his peak years, when he averaged 76 catches for 1,206 yards per season from 2013 through 2018. But he still can do plenty of damage. And over the final six games of the regular season, he contributed 27 receptions for 435 yards (16.1 avg.) and five TDs.

White was given last week off to rest for this game. He leads the Bills with three interceptions this season, in which he earned his second straight Pro Bowl berth.

3. Bills interior OL vs. Colts DT DeForest Buckner.

Buckner has an ankle sprain and may not be able to go. But he leads the Colts with 9.5 sacks and 10 tackles for losses. His pass rush often keeps opposing quarterbacks from being able to step up into the pocket.

4. Bills QB Josh Allen vs. Colts MLB Darius Leonard.

Leonard has been an All-Pro or Pro-Bowl selection in each of his three years in the league. He can blitz, he can cover and he can tackle. The Colts will need him to do all three at his highest level to counter the passing, scrambling and running abilities of Allen.

5. Bills LB Tremaine Edmunds vs. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor.

The rugged Edmunds is 250 pounds, which is monster-sized for a linebacker in today's NFL. But he gets the job done in the running game and ranks second on the team behind safety Jordan Poyer with 119 tackles.

Taylor is averaging 5.0 yards per carry with 11 rushing TDs.

Injuries

Colts: T Will Holden (ankle) and CB Rock Ya-Sin (concussion) are out. DT DeForest Buckner (ankle) is questionable.

Bills: WR Cole Beasley (knee) and WR Stefon Diggs (oblique) are questionable.

Prediction

Allen has made too much progress and the Bills have come too far this season to be derailed in the first round again. The Colts are formidable under Reich, but they fall just short on this day.

Bills 27, Colts 24