2025 NFL Draft: Projection For Bills To Receive 2 Extra Compensatory Draft Picks Next Year

Bills GM Beane tries to leverage the NFL's compensatory free agent draft awards to gain additional draft picks

Sep 24, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders wide receiver Curtis Samuel (4) catches / Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

As Bills fans are aware, the Buffalo Bills lost a few key free agents following the 2024 season, and did not have much cap room to sign the top free agents available. This likely makes the Bills eligible for compensatory draft picks in 2025.

Compensatory draft picks are generally awarded to teams that lose more compensatory free agents than they sign in free agency. The NFL's formula is not public, but a few analysts have been able to accurately predict likely compensatory pick awards.

At this time, Buffalo has signed three players in the 2024 offseason that likely 'qualify' as compensatory free agents, while losing five 'qualifying' players.

Related: Full List of Bills' Current Selections in Each Round of 2025 NFL Draft

2024 Key Free Agent Losses:

• Wide receiver Gabe Davis to Jacksonville
• Linebacker Tyrel Dodson to Seattle
• Edge rusher Leonard Floyd to San Francisco
• Cornerback Dane Jackson to Carolina
• Wide receiver Deonte Harty to Baltimore
• Defensive lineman Tim Settle
• Linebackers Tyler Matakevich and A.J. Klein, plus safety Micah Hyde, remain unsigned

Related: Buffalo Bills Still Waiting on Micah Hyde Decision?

2024 Key Free Agent Additions:

• Curtis Samuel: 3 year contract worth $24 million, with $15.02 million guaranteed
• Austin Johnson: 1 year, $3.5 million contract with $3.04 million guaranteed
• Mike Edwards: one year, $2.8 million contract with $600,000 guaranteed

Comp Draft Pick Projections:

As a result, NFL.com analyst Lance Zierlein predicts that the Bills will receive two comp picks:

• the deals for both Gabe Davis (Jags) and Leornard Floyd (49ers) are substantially higher in APY than those given to qualifying free agents by the Bills, so that would be rewarded two selections.
• The Curtis Samuel and Austin Johnson signings by the Bills would cancel out the free agency losses of Tyler Dodson (Seattle) and Dane Jackson (Carolina).
• The departure of Tim Settle could possibly bring another seventh-round selection if he plays a significant role with the Texans.

OverTheCap currently projects Buffalo to also earn two compensatory draft picks in the 2025 NFL Draft - a fourth-round selection to compensate for the offseason departure of wide receiver Gabriel Davis, and a fifth-round pick due to the departure of defensive end Leonard Floyd.

Related: Brandon Beane: Buffalo Bills' Fifth-Round Edge Rusher Must 'Improve' in Key Area

Two potential compensatory picks would increase the Bills total number of picks in the 2025 NFL Draft to 10. But ...if the Bills were to sign additional free agents who qualify as compensatory free agents, those two projected compensatory draft picks could shrink.