Buyer Beware? Why Buffalo Bills Must Be Careful of Trade Up in Draft

Between LSU receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., the Buffalo Bills may be forced into making a tough decision. How necessary is a draft-day trade?

Sep 30, 2023; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; LSU Tigers wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (11) reacts with / Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

The Buffalo Bills are unquestionably in desperate need of receiver help, and their attention has turned to the NFL Draft for reinforcements. 

The departure of deep threat Gabe Davis and star receiver Stefon Diggs has left Buffalo both without its lead man and its heavily targeted complementary target. Fortunately for general manager Brandon Beane, the class offers several talents worthy of early round selections.

No one has been a more popular mock-draft selection than LSU receiver Brian Thomas Jr. However, his teammate – and consensus top-10 prospect – Malik Nabers has been gaining some steam, too.

Nabers would unequivocally require a trade up from No. 28, a scenario that Joe Buscaglia hypothesized about. 

Jan 21, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs (14). / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Nabers would be the type of aggressive acquisition Beane has shown some willingness to make. Yet, pulling the trigger on a trade for one of the draft’s blue-chip receiving prospects (Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr., Washington’s Rome Odunze, and Nabers) is likely the only trade-up scenario that makes sense for Buffalo.

One can argue any trade-up for a non-quarterback is a bad-process decision – not without merit. But the electric athleticism of Nabers, along with his rather polished profile, makes him the ideal candidate for the Bills to roll the dice on.

Buffalo may be tempted to move up for one of the class’ second-tier receiving options like Thomas, Texas’ Adonai Mitchell, or South Carolina’s Xavier Legette. Each are respectable prospects in their own right and can certainly find success in Western New York.

That doesn’t make the move logical.

Simply put, teams are not as good at predicting which players will be better than their nearby-drafted counterparts as one would think. The difference between the second receiver taken and the fifth may be massive, but splitting hairs between two similarly-ranked prospects can be fruitless. Therefore, giving up assets to lock in a prospect of that caliber is not wise.

The difference between Thomas, for example, and another second-tier receiver likely will not be worth the difference in draft capital, especially if it’s a Day 2 pick. As with any non-quarterback, their impact is generally marginal anyway, and giving up extra throws at the dartboard can be costly asset management.

The Bills just watched seemingly half of the defense leave in free agency, and will have to manage the vacated targets and talent Diggs provided. Taking a receiver at No. 28 is fine, but unless a move is being made for one of the class’ elite, staying put should serve Buffalo best.