NFL analytics expert projects record-tying rookie season for Bills WR Keon Coleman

An NFL Network pundit expects big things from the Buffalo Bills' rookie pass-catcher.

Oct 14, 2023; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Keon Coleman (4) / Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

If we’re counting ‘imaginary’ touchdowns, Buffalo Bills rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman has already found paydirt three times in Highmark Stadium. One NFL expert expects him to triple this production once touchdowns start to appear on the scoreboard.

NFL Network analytics expert Cynthia Frelund recently appeared on One Bills Live to analyze Buffalo’s haul in the 2024 NFL Draft, dedicating a bit of time to breaking down the type of production and impact Bills fans can anticipate from the team’s first pick in the draft. The analyst expects immediate production from Coleman, who was selected by the team to help fill the hole in the receiving corps left by the offseason departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis; Frelund expects Coleman to score nine touchdowns in his rookie campaign, which would tie Lee Evans in the 2004 NFL campaign for the most all-time by a Buffalo rookie.

“It’s hard to project for rookies in general, it’s harder when you don’t know much about how their quarterback will perform at the next level,” Frelund said. “So, like, the Rome Odunzes of the world have a much different projection than someone who is in a system with a guy like Josh Allen, who is a very helpful known entity. Ultimately, I think nine [touchdowns] is the floor . . . Just a little interesting that that is actually one more touchdown than the guy who is now in Houston [Diggs] had. It’s just interesting. I thought that was an interesting number to add to our analysis.”

It’s an optimistic, though not egregious projection for Coleman, who showed a penchant for reaching paydirt throughout his collegiate career; the 6-foot-3 pass-catcher scored 19 total touchdowns throughout his two years at Michigan State and sole campaign at Florida State, with 11 of these scores coming last season in Tallahassee. He’s a bit unrefined and will need to improve as a route runner, but his opportunity for volume is clear; Coleman is now a focal point of a Buffalo receiving corps that lost a combined 152 receptions, 1,929 yards, and 15 touchdowns with the offseason losses of Diggs and Davis.

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Nine receiving touchdowns as a rookie would tie Evans, one of Buffalo’s two first-round picks in the 2004 NFL Draft, for the most all-time in franchise history (we’re not going to talk about its other first-round selection). It would be the most by a Bills rookie pass-catcher since Davis hauled in seven scores in the 2020 NFL season.

It’s Coleman’s ability to find the endzone in addition to his ‘attack the football’ catching mentality and cold weather experience that, to Frelund, make him a great fit in Western New York. She sees the big-bodied target as the team’s primary boundary option, a player who will benefit from the bevy of talented separators the Bills deploy across the middle of the field.

“When it came to Coleman, there was probably a sense that, in this organization and what they would like to do, meaning you have to have a guy who is able to handle a fastball, because Josh Allen throws the ball really hard, as we know, you have to have a guy who is big, physical, [and] has enough cold weather experience to be able to understand the elements . . . I don’t think I need to remind anyone in Bills Mafia that he also played at Michigan State, where it’s cold,” Frelund said. “Ultimately, you’re looking at a guy who has a nose for the endzone in a way where, they didn’t play 12 [personnel at Florida State] as much as [the Bills] will probably play 12 this season, but he’s going to have a chance to be a field-stretcher, get on the perimeter, and take advantage of the fact that the middle is going to be crowded given that the Bills just have really great tight ends that can also handle the ball. 

“I think that this is going to be a really nice move; I hate when people say it’s, like, addition by subtraction, but I think that in terms of what this offense in its reconstructed form would like to do, this guy is a huge addition given all the subtractions.”